Dallas Stars vs. Vegas Golden Knights: 2024 Stanley Cup playoff series preview and pick

Credit: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports

Dallas Stars: 1^st in Central Division, 113 points
Vegas Golden Knights: 2^nd Western Conference Wild Card, 98 points

Schedule (ET)

Date	Game	Time
Monday, April 22	1. Vegas at Dallas	9:30 p.m. ET
Wednesday, April 24	2. Vegas at Dallas	9:30 p.m. ET
Saturday, April 27	3. Dallas at Vegas	10:30 p.m. ET
Monday, April 29	4. Dallas at Vegas	TBD
Wednesday, May 1	5. Vegas at Dallas	TBD
Friday, May 3	6. Dallas at Vegas	TBD
Sunday, May 5	7. Vegas at Dallas	TBD

The Skinny

These two teams have become quite acquainted over the years, having battled in the Western Conference Final in 2020 and 2023. The Stars took the first series 4-1 en route to an improbable run to challenge the Tampa Bay Lightning for the title in 2020, with Vegas avoiding a late-series collapse to beat Dallas 4-2 last year. Vegas went on to win its first Cup in franchise history that season.

The two teams enter 2024 at different ends of the playoff spectrum, but it has the potential to be the best series of all. There’s a very, very good chance the winner of this series will be the one that goes all the way to the Cup Final. Dallas has been a heavyweight from the get-go, living up to high preseason expectations. Vegas, meanwhile, had a bit of a rougher go after dealing with injuries and inconsistency throughout the season, but when they’re healthy, few teams have the overall depth at every position that the defending champs do.

The Stars only made one trade of note ahead of the March 8 deadline, acquiring Chris Tanev from the Calgary Flames. He added toughness, leadership and depth to an already strong Stars’ blueline, marking a deal that many considered one of the best of the deadline. Vegas, meanwhile, was significantly more aggressive, acquiring Noah Hanifin from the Flames, Anthony Mantha from Washington and Tomas Hertl from San Jose. Three key pieces brought in, none moved out. Despite not even being in a playoff spot at the time, GM Kelly McCrimmon meant business.

Since the NHL All-Star Weekend, the Stars have a 22-8-3 record with 47 points, good for third among all teams in that span. Vegas had to truly claw their way back into postseason contention, going 16-14-2 over their final 21 games – good for 21st out of 32, and behind a handful of non-playoff lineups. Vegas was better down the stretch with a 9-5-1 record in 15 games since March 18 – one month to go in the regular season – but Dallas was 11-2-0 in that same span.

Head to Head

The good news for Golden Knights fans? Their team won all three regular season meetings between the two teams, all coming quite early in the season. The first two games were relatively close, with Vegas taking a 3-2 shootout win on Oct. 17. Just over a month later on Nov. 22, Vegas took a 2-1 overtime win before cruising to a convincing 6-1 closer on Dec. 9.

William Karlsson, Nicolas Roy and Stone led the way with three points each, while 10 players contributed goals. Joe Pavelski and Roope Hintz were the lone multi-point producers on Dallas, registering two each, with Evgenii Dadonov and Craig Smith also tallying goals along the way.

In all-time regular season action, the Golden Knights actually have an 11-3-3 career record, with four of Dallas’ wins coming in a row. Will that matter in the end? We’ll see.

Top Five Scorers

Dallas Stars

Jason Robertson, 80 points
Joe Pavelski, 67 points
Wyatt Johnston, 65 points
Roope Hintz, 65 points
Matt Duchene, 65 points

Vegas Golden Knights

Jonathan Marchessault, 69 points
Jack Eichel, 68 points
William Karlsson, 60 points
Mark Stone, 53 points
Chandler Stephenson, 51 points

X-Factor

Remember how good Stone was during the team’s Cup run last year? After missing half the season, he put up a legitimate case to win the Conn Smythe with 11 goals and 24 points in 23 games, the best playoff run of his career. We don’t know exactly when he’ll be back, but having a winger group that includes Stone, Ivan Barbashev and Chandler Stephenson will make them dangerous. Even without No. 61, the Golden Knights are one of the deepest offensive units in the league, and they haven’t even had a full, healthy lineup since the trade deadline. Just imagine how good this team will be at full strength.

Offense

Scoring depth is going to be crucial here. That’s Dallas’ bread and butter, with the team sitting second in terms of total points accumulated team-wide this year. A total of eight players scored at least 20 goals this year, while 10 had 45 points or more.

Dallas’ ability to get offense from just about every line is huge. Robertson led the way with 80 points this season, the second time he has his the mark. It’s a far cry from his 46-goal, 109-point season, but Robertson continued to round out his game and show why he’s one of the best young wingers in the game today. Johnston set a career-high with 32 goals and 65 points as a sophomore, which is remarkable in itself, while Pavelski, Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn continued to show that age is just a number.

One of Dallas’ most important pickups this year was Duchene, who broke past the 60-point barrier for just the second time since 2018-19. He was bought out by the Nashville Predators last summer after a 56-point season, but proved to be one of the Stars’ most valuable forwards. Duchene also gave the Dallas three 60-point centers alongside Johnston and Hintz, which is almost unheard of these days.

And all of this doesn’t even include Logan Stankoven, who has been playing at just over a half-point-per-game rate this year. He’ll still be eligible for the Calder Trophy next year after missing the 25-game mark by just one, but the fact he came in and instantly became a huge part of Dallas’ third line just adds to the team’s tremendous depth.

Vegas didn’t have a breakout offensive threat, but 12 players had at least 25 points, and nine had double-digit goals. Jonathan Marchessault led the way with 42 goals and 69 points, with Jack Eichel finishing second with 31 goals and 68 points. But with just 63 games played, Eichel was on track to break into the 90-point mark, so that can’t be understated. William Karlsson, Ivan Barbashev, Chandler Stephenson and Nicolas Roy were all excellent, and Stone was putting around at nearly a point per game prior to his injury.

Adding Mantha and Hertl to the lineup instantly gave the team more credibility up front. While Vegas would often grind their way to wins, making themselves difficult to play against, they’re now sitting with three legitimate scoring lines. Few teams can say that, even in the postseason. But they’ll need Stone to be healthy to really be at their best, and, of course, that’s a topic for later.

Defense

The Stars were among the best teams at locking things down this year, sitting second in fewest expected goals against-per-60 at 5-on-5 at 2.22. Vegas was also in the top 10, sitting at 2.46. Dallas’ 27.1 shots against-per-60 is seventh in the league, while Vegas allowed 29.32, good for 20th.

But on paper, they’re both close. The Stars’ top pair of Thomas Harley and Miro Heiskanen was the second-best pairing with at least 600 minutes together this year in terms of expected goals percentage, sitting with a 61.5 percent rate according to MoneyPuck. Both were so valuable offensively, with Heiskanen recording 54 points and Harley contributing a career-best 15 goals and 47 points.

More interestingly, though, is the play of the Esa Lindell-Tanev pairing. They’re difficult to play against, can eat minutes, move the puck and block shots. Since pairing together after the deadline, no defensive duo has a better expected goals percentage than they do at 67.1 percent.

And then there’s Vegas. After adding Hanifin to the fray, they’re running a situation that could see three-time Stanley Cup champion Alec Martinez as an odd man out. Hanifin and Nicolas Hague have been excellent, Brayden McNabb and Shea Theodore are stout and Zach Whitecloud and Ben Hutton have been valuable at points, too. The key here for Vegas is Alex Pietrangelo’s health. He’s been sidelined for a while now, and while it hasn’t been a banner year for him overall, especially defensively, he’s still a leader in the room that makes the team much better than when he’s not there.

One theme you’ll notice here? Size. Other than Nils Lundkvist at 5-foot-10, every Dallas defender is 6-foot-1 or more, with Jani Hakanpaa leading the way at 6-foot-7. They’ll beat you with speed and puck-moving abilities, too. For Vegas, Martinez is the only one under 6-foot-2, with Hague (6-foot-6) and McNabb (6-foot-4) bringing the heat. They did an excellent job of shutting teams down in the playoffs last year, and Hanifin gives them another high-quality puck-mover.

Goaltending

Jake Oettinger is one of the best goaltenders in the NHL, and no goaltender has more wins than his 24 since Jan. 1. He has more than 30 wins in all three of his full seasons to date, something very few goalies can lay claim to this early in their careers.

For Vegas, it’s been another year of goaltending by committee. Adin Hill was among the NHL’s best in the first half of the season, but with 19 games missed due to injuries this year, it’s been hard for him to stay consistent. He’s healthy now, and the Golden Knights will hope he can repeat the play that made him a serious Conn Smythe Trophy candidate last year en route to the Cup.

Having Logan Thompson in the fray helps, too. He played the bulk of the games this year due to Hill’s injuries and is more than capable of standing on his head for a stretch of games. But unless something changes, it’s Hill’s net to lose, especially with how well he played last spring.

Since the NHL All-Star Weekend, Oettinger registered a .913 save percentage, 0.27 goals saved above average and 0.771 high-danger save percentage – putting him outside the top 30 among 64 goalies with at least five starts. In the season-long 5-on-5 GSAA fight, Oettinger was 84th out of 93 goalies at -8.65. Hill wasn’t particularly good, but still sat much higher with a 0.52.

The consensus? We’ve got a group of goalies that have proven they can be stars in the NHL, but they didn’t show it enough in a consistent basis. Oettinger was still near the top of the wins leaderboard this year, but that’s a team stat more than anything.

But, if Oettinger in 2022 and Hill in 2023 taught us anything, it’s that betting against either of them is a bad call. All they need is a quick reset and, suddenly, goaltending is stealing the show again. You should fully expect a well-kept crease at both ends of the ice.

Injuries

Heh. Yeah, we know. Stone has been skating with the club again, with the hope that he’ll be able to return again in the playoffs after a third consecutive late-season trip to long-term injured reserve. His injury, as well as the LTIR designations for William Carrier and Robin Lehner, helped allow the Golden Knights to acquire their big three deadline acquisitions – and if Stone, their captain, can return, they’ll be as deep as ever. We don’t know when he’ll return, but it’s looking likely, at least.

Hey, they’re playing by the rules, whether you like them or not.

Pietrangelo missed the final seven games with an illness, and it’s not exactly clear when he’ll be ready to go. But once he is, he’ll make an already great blueline even stronger. Carrier, meanwhile, is back skating and could be available at some point.

The Stars sat Tyler Seguin in the final game, but that was more precautionary. It helps the Stars have played just twice over the past week, giving them some extra time to rest up before Monday’s series opener. Hakanpaa hasn’t played since mid-March but is close to returning and might be good for Game 1.

Intangibles

Two teams with recent Stanley Cup final experience. One with a Cup. How much of that matters here? Vegas still has most of its core from the title run last year, and if that’s something you truly value, that’s a good spot to be in. But winning the Cup in consecutive years is so difficult in the modern NHL, with only Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay pulling it off.

If Vegas is going to do so, it will need to rally together like it did for three months last spring. They know what it takes to scale the summit, something Dallas’ core hasn’t achieved yet. But does it matter more to have that experience, or to be the better team recently? Because if that’s the case, Dallas has the edge there. It doesn’t hurt that the Stars have an equal 26 wins at home and on the road, while Vegas’ 27/18 split leaves a lot to be desired.

In reality, none of what you’ve done in the past matters. You’ve got seven games to prove yourself here. Don’t waste it.

Series Prediction

If this series goes anything short of seven games, we’re being robbed of pure entertainment. The first two meetings between the teams this year were excellent, and despite a lackluster finish to the series last season, it still featured some good hockey. The fact that we haven’t seen Vegas at full strength makes them scary, but Dallas is one of the deepest teams in the league and can produce from just about anywhere. Give them the edge heading into this one, but it won’t be easy.

Stars in seven games.

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