10 burning offseason questions for the NHL’s non-playoff teams of 2023-24
Sixteen tickets have been punched to chase Lord Stanley. The string has been played out and for the other half, a long summer awaits, with six months to stew until the puck drops again in October.
After the exit interviews this week, the real work begins. With that, here are 10 burning questions facing the NHL’s 16 non-playoff bound teams:
1. How aggressive will new Utah owner Ryan Smith be this summer?
Smith has been pining for a team in Salt Lake City. He asked for expansion but received a relocation. And in many respects, the current-day Coyotes are way further along than where Smith would have to start from scratch. GM Bill Armstrong, who is expecting to move with the team to Utah, has assembled a talented young pool with Logan Cooley, Dylan Guenther, Josh Doan, as well as last year’s first-round picks Daniil But and Dmitri Simashev. They’ve got 10 second-round picks over the next three Drafts. How valuable are they? Look at what one brought back last summer in Sean Durzi. And they’ve got only $47 million committed to next season’s $87.7 million projected cap. With Clayton Keller and Co. already locked up, that’s almost better than starting at zero – just ask the Golden Knights how quickly they ran into cap trouble. But if Utah has any designs on hitting the ice as a team in the playoff hunt, they’re going to need to be aggressive, and they’re going to need to spend. Add that to the list after a new logo and uniforms, new facilities and the million other things in progress.
2. Can the Pittsburgh Penguins afford the status quo?
Shortly after trading Jake Guentzel at the deadline, Penguins GM Kyle Dubas reiterated that the goal is to remain as competitive as possible so long as this core is in place. Now after a nearly historic surge into the postseason, how does that influence what comes next? The reality is the Penguins have missed the playoffs for two consecutive seasons and haven’t won a round since 2018. On the one hand, Michael Bunting’s addition gave them a shot in the arm. On the other, Pittsburgh didn’t “perform as we were designed to,” to use Dubas’ own words. He significantly remade them last summer, changing out $24 million in contracts in the process of adding Erik Karlsson from San Jose, which cost this year’s valuable first-round pick. It seems a foregone conclusion that Sidney Crosby will sign an extension this summer on July 1. Some believe the deal is already in the drawer, or close to it. They will need to better support him after one of the best 36-year-old seasons ever. The path on how to do that seems murky at best.
3. Who is part of the Ottawa Senators core?
On the surface, that’s an easy answer – just look at the five players signed in Ottawa long-term making $8 million or more: Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Josh Norris, Thomas Chabot and Jake Sanderson. It’s not a stone cold mortal lock that all five will be there this fall as president and GM Steve Staios begins to put his stamp on the Sens roster. Ottawa had the most disappointing season of all 32 teams. There was turmoil, firing their GM and coach in the first two months of the campaign. New owner Michael Andlauer and Staios had no designs on being henchmen. But seriously existential and foundational questions need to be asked now. First up, who is the permanent head coach? The odds-on favorite is Toronto Marlies bench boss John Gruden, who worked with Staios and Andlauer in Hamilton. Perhaps the easiest one to answer is on defense: Is Jakob Chychrun part of the plan? If so, he’ll need an extension, but that won’t work paying your three left-shooting defensemen upwards of $24 million soon. Someone will have to go. That could be Chabot if Chychrun stays. You also have to allow for this possibility, too: after all of the losing, will someone else raise their hand and ask out?
4. What will Brock Faber’s next contract cost?
Man, what a revelation Brock Faber was as a rookie for the Minnesota Wild, making a strong case that he had the best rookie season over generational talent Connor Bedard. We’ll see if he brings home the Calder hardware in June. The 21-year-old enters the final game of the regular season on Thursday night having collected 46 points, 31 at even-strength, and averaged a staggering 24:59 time on ice. Faber is a horse. He defends effortlessly, plays cerebrally and took on tough assignments. His trade has the potential to go down as one of the most lopsided in the salary cap era: the Wild sending the rights to Kevin Fiala, whom they were not going to re-sign, to Los Angeles in exchange for Minnesota native Faber and a first-round pick. Faber is eligible to sign an extension starting July 1. What will that cost? Quinn Hughes had a similar rookie season, but then played his third and final year of his entry-level contract, before grinding it out into October ahead of the 2021-22 season. The result was 6 years x $7.85 million, which is 9.83 percent of the cap – and looks like a bargain now that Hughes may win his first Norris Trophy. That same deal is $8.62 million per year on next year’s cap. It’s $9.05 million if you wait another year. Either way, a good problem to have if you’re Minnesota.
5. Who will lead the Columbus Blue Jackets into the future?
No one will say Jarmo Kekalainen got the short end of the stick as GM in Columbus. After 11 years and one playoff round won, the Blue Jackets fired Kekalainen on Feb. 15, but their search for his replacement has not really yet begun in earnest. President of hockey ops John Davidson and team president Mike Priest are leading the search. It’s fair to question whether they’re the right men to do that, considering they brought in Kekalainen, gave him the long rope, and also signed off on hiring Mike Babcock. It has been misstep after misstep in the midwest. It may be one of the best jobs in hockey: loyal and patient ownership that is willing to spend, top-notch facilities, and little pressure or noise to manage. Oh, yeah, and they’ve got a fantastic young core with Denton Mateychuk, Adam Fantilli, David Jiricek, Cole Sillinger, Kent Johnson and Gavin Brindley. To say this is an inflection point in franchise history is both obvious and also somehow feels like an understatement. This is, at the very least, a $500 million decision. (Kekalainen signed contracts worth $1.176 billion in Columbus, according to CapFriendly.com). It will be worth even more than that if someone can finally put the Blue Jackets on the map and deliver for one of the league’s most loyal and loud fanbases. They deserve better.
6. Is it Dustin Wolf’s crease in Calgary?
Park the larger cloud hovering that is the Jacob Markstrom decision for one second. The first question the Calgary Flames need to ask themselves: is Dustin Wolf is ready to grab the ball and run with it next season? It’s fair to say now that Wolf has likely graduated from the AHL, with zero to prove there after back-to-back seasons as goalie of the year, and one as league MVP. But how much can he handle at the NHL level? What’s the appropriate workload? His overall numbers this season weren’t necessarily pretty with the Flames, but there was little rhythm to it and only a small extended run where he knew he’d be with the team. That came in a six-game stretch in March when Markstrom was injured. Wolf posted a .912 save percentage then, which is more impressive because he only averaged 24 shots a game in that run, where goals obviously ding the save percentage more heavily. Solving the Wolf question will make a Markstrom answer more apparent. It may be impossible for Calgary to unring the bell with Markstrom after asking him to waive his no-trade clause. Or he may be the perfect mentor for Wolf on a team that has designs on staying competitive through their re-tool. Markstrom holds those cards, but the Flames can be well prepared either way.
7. Will the Flyers have a hangover from John Tortorella’s tornado?
To be abundantly clear: the Flyers are not considering a coaching change. They have eight million reasons not to, and plus it’s undeniable that Tortorella is a good coach. It’s also fair to wonder what the lasting effects will be of this disappointing season in Philadelphia. They held a playoff spot for almost 75 games, stumbled at the exact worst moment, and could never regain their footing. The Flyers competed and punched way above their weight class, laying the foundation for a team that does not have ‘tank’ in their dictionary. You could also make the argument that Tortorella coached that team right out of the playoffs. He healthy scratched Sean Couturier just 34 days after naming him captain. And then called his team ‘soft’ and tore a strip off them minutes after they made a furious comeback to earn a point against the Islanders. That was amid an eight-game losing streak. Winning just one of those games might have gotten them in. Now, they played themselves out of a lottery opportunity for Macklin Celebrini in a rebuilding year. And there is definitely a large chunk of that locker room that is wary of Tortorella.
8. Should the Anaheim Ducks trade Trevor Zegras?
There is definitely smoke, we will see if there is fire. Sources indicated months back that even before trading Jamie Drysdale for Cutter Gauthier, the Ducks had engaged in casual conversations about the availability of Zegras. The belief was GM Pat Verbeek’s view on Zegras was that he was more of a one dimensional player and needed to grow into a more complete player. The was definitely friction between the Zegras camp and Verbeek as part of his RFA contract negotiations that stretched into October and caused him to miss a chunk of camp. The Ducks were also recently fined $50,000 by the NHL for improper offseason activity last summer. Was Zegras mandated to train in Florida with Anaheim’s other young players under Verbeek’s prescribed fitness coach? There is clearly a lot to unpack here. Some looked at the strong finish to Zegras’ season two ways: was it to signal his buy-in, or was it to show teams what he could do so they buy on him? The only thing we can absolutely guarantee is that teams will be calling.
9. Will the Montréal Canadiens deal from their plethora of defensemen?
Don’t get caught sleeping on the Canadiens’ defense and pipeline. You might have looked at their blue line this season and assumed it was thin. They’re going to be overloaded soon and may have to make pivotal decisions on the future as soon as this summer, particularly with so many right-shooting defensemen in their group. Lane Hutson opened eyes this week in his debut. David Reinbacher should start the season in the AHL. But then there is Logan Mailloux (right), Justin Barron (right), Jayden Struble (left), Jordan Harris (left), Kaiden Guhle (left) and Arber Xhekaj (left). We also didn’t mention Mike Matheson (left) and David Savard (right) as the established veterans. That’s 10 defensemen who are either NHL ready or damn close. GM Kent Hughes said this season summer is going to be critical, and he’s not wrong. Listen to our 40-minute chat with Kent Hughes on Frankly Speaking last week.
10. Which coaching hire is more critical: Buffalo or New Jersey?
It’s a great debate. The Sabres axed Don Granato this week, while New Jersey fired longtime Sabres coach Lindy Ruff in March after a four-year run with the Devils. (Is it possible Ruff ends up back in Buffalo?) The Sabres are looking for someone to help break the longest active playoff drought in pro sports at 13 years. The Devils are looking for someone to add structure and attention to detail. Interim coach Travis Green finished the season with a 8-12-1 mark, it is unclear yet whether he will be a candidate for the full-time position. Both teams have roster construction issues. Sabres players said at exit interviews that things were “casual” and “comfortable” under Granato. Devils players continued to make the same careless plays with the puck, and it was an indictment on their season that as the Flyers and Red Wings fumbled playoff positions – opening up the door for Washington and Pittsburgh – that New Jersey was never really even in the mix, even further behind than Buffalo as the Sabres finished with seven fewer points than last season.
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