2023 NHL Trade Deadline Playbook: Tampa Bay Lightning

Credit: © Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

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With just over three weeks remaining until the NHL’s March 3 trade deadline, we’ve got you covered with at least one trade-focused story every day leading up to Deadline Day.

Today we’re going to focus on the Tampa Bay Lightning, who advanced to their third straight Stanley Cup Final last June. Do they have a fourth in them?

2023 Trade Deadline Countdown: 24 days

TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
Current Record: 32-16-1 (3rd in Atlantic)
General Manager: Julien BriseBois (5th season)
Head Coach: Jon Cooper (10th full season)
Captain: Steven Stamkos (9th full season)

Last Year: Lost to Colorado Avalanche (4-2) in Stanley Cup Final

Current Lineup: Click Here

Goals For: 3.57 per game (5th)
Goals Against: 3.0 per game (14th)
Power Play: 26.4 percent (3rd)
Penalty Kill: 80.5 percent (13th)

Key Additions
RD Nick Perbix – Promoted from AHL Syracuse
LD Ian Cole – Signed 1-year, $3 million contract on July 13
C/W Vladislav Namestnikov – Signed 1-year, $2.5 million contract on July 13
LD Haydn Fleury – Signed 2-year, $1.525 million contract on July 13

Key Subtractions
LD Ryan McDonagh – Traded to Nashville on July 3 for Philippe Myers and Grant Mismash
LW Ondrej Palat – Signed 5-year, $30 million contract in New Jersey on July 13
LD Jan Rutta – Signed 3-year, $8.25 million contract in Pittsburgh on July 13

Trainer’s Table
C Anthony Cirelli – Missed 23 games after offseason shoulder surgery
RD Zach Bogosian – Missed 24 games after offseason shoulder surgery

Both of Tampa’s serious injuries this season were taken care of during the offseason. Otherwise, they’ve iced a complete lineup for the bulk of the season. The Bolts initially stalled without Cirelli anchoring the second line, but they are back to heating up at the right time.

Rewind: 2022 Deadline Playbook

In order to get a sense of where the Lightning are going, it’s often helpful to take a look back at BriseBois’ previous moves to glean information.

March 20, 2022
To Tampa Bay: Nick Paul
To Ottawa: Mathieu Joseph, 2024 4th Round Pick, 44.5% retained on Paul
(Paul was re-signed on July 1 to 7-year, $22.05 million deal)

March 18, 2022
To Tampa Bay: Brandon Hagel, 2022 4th Round Pick (Kenny Connors), 2024 4th Round PIck
To Chicago: Taylor Raddysh, Boris Katchouk, 2023 1st Round Pick, 2024 1st Round Pick

March 21, 2022
To Tampa Bay: Riley Nash
To Arizona: Future Considerations

Make no mistake: When BriseBois identifies a need for his team, he curates a list of strong fits, selects a target and pays the price. There is no monkey business. He gets it done. For the third year in a row, the Lightning added savvy, critical depth pieces to help propel them to the Cup Final. This year, their asset pool is incredibly thin, but BriseBois is one of the most creative and proactive managers in the league and will more than likely make something happen for his team again.

How did we get here?

Yet again, Tampa is one of the most consistent teams in the league this year, with no clear and obvious weakness or fatal flaw to address. Do they miss the depth that Palat and McDonagh provided? Of course, but their chances to win weren’t dramatically altered without those players – and now they can potentially add to give their top players a bit of a breather down the stretch.

The Lightning rank inside the top third in the league in most critical statistical categories. Their offense is fifth-best, their team defense was in the top 10 before Monday’s 7-1 clunker against the Cats in the Battle of Florida. They also get contributions from across their lineup. Hagel and Paul have been as advertised, with Hagel already on the cusp of hitting 20 goals again and Paul chipping in with 16 of his own. Back from injury, Cirelli continues to anchor the second line and Alex Killorn will break 20 goals for the third time in his career.

Defensively, Tampa makes it hard on opponents to enter the zone with any regularity and limits quality chances against when they do get there. They are Top 10 in almost every defensive metric: expected goals against, scoring chances against and high-danger scoring chances against. The one area that might give BriseBois and Jon Cooper some pause is their penalty kill, which is still in the top half of the league.

Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy remains the game’s great equalizer. If there are defensive breakdowns or penalty killing miscues, Vasilevskiy can mop it up with ease. He makes up for a lot of mistakes – but as noted, the Bolts don’t make many.

Deadline Posture: Buyers

While there may be ups and downs of the regular season, this Tampa team is another iteration of the championship caliber squad they’ve rolled out for the past four seasons. They sit third in their division, but they feel like a shark swimming in the Atlantic, waiting for the appropriate time to bite off another deep cut in the playoffs. And as Steven Stamkos said so eloquently: “We don’t care about the picks,” which means BriseBois is ready to maximize this core’s championship window by any means necessary.

Deadline Objectives

Top Objective: Depth Defender

If Tampa’s penalty kill is really a concern, or if Cooper would like to reduce Victor Hedman’s workload leading up to the playoffs, perhaps the best course of action is acquire a defenseman who can add to their depth, aid the penalty kill and provide a physical presence. We’ve seen that Tampa is active in that market with both Ian Cole and Philippe Myers being added to the mix, though the Myers bet (and extension) doesn’t look like it will pay off.

Secondary Objective: Depth Forward

One element certainly missing in Tampa’s bottom six forward group is pure speed. None of Pat Maroon, Corey Perry or Pierre-Eduoard Bellemare would be considered a burner. The Bolts could use a burst there, preferably one with term if they’re going to be giving up some of their precious few assets.

Potential Fits

Sam Lafferty, Chicago Blackhawks
Speed? Check. Penalty kill contributor? Check. Term on reasonable contract? That’s the Tampa trifecta, baby. Lafferty is second in the league to only Reilly Smith with three shorthanded goals. He has one year left at an inexpensive $1.15 million. And Tampa has the assets available to acquire him. One year after looking to Chicago for Hagel with a similar bet, Lafferty could be the guy this year.

Jake McCabe, Chicago Blackhawks
McCabe is another Blackhawk who fits the bill, particularly if the Hawks are willing to retain half on his contract, which would knock him down to just $2 million for the next two seasons. Read more about McCabe and his game here.

Luke Schenn, Vancouver Canucks
Schenn has garnered interest from teams because of his steady, physical play and leadership. The Lightning are certainly familiar with that as he helped them to two Stanley Cups along the way. A reunion could certainly be in order, though it doesn’t feel as if he’s top of mind in Tampa right now.

Will Borgen, Seattle Kraken
Borgen is an interesting fit in Tampa. The question is: Would Seattle, in its own playoff chase, be willing to part with him? He is a pending RFA, so he’d remain under team control, and he makes just $900,000. A number of teams have been heavily scouting Borgen recently because they believe he has lots to add.

One of Matt Roy or Sean Walker, Los Angeles Kings
We’ve written about the Kings’ logjam on defense, particularly on the right side with Jordan Spence waiting in the wings. They’ve got the surplus to make something happen. Could the Lightning entice them with the right assets?

Trade Chips

The Lightning would like to be shopping at Gucci, but they’ve got a wallet befitting of Walmart. Tampa’s prospect pool is understandably thin. The Lightning have already traded their first-round picks in 2023 and 2024. They also do not have a second-round pick this season. Also of note: Brisebois has not moved many significant roster players (Joseph, Raddysh, Katchouk) to improve the Bolts at the deadline and we anticipate that will continue. Here’s what is likely in play:

2025 1st Round Pick: Is it possible that a team is willing to bet the long game on Tampa and think that they may be heading toward a downturn by 2024-25? They’d have to hope a natural aging decline will put them in a pole position at the Draft.
G Hugo Alnefelt: He’s been rock solid in AHL Syracuse this season as a 20-year-old. The 6-foot-3 Swede has a .923 save percentage in 20 AHL games – and there is a clear roadblock ahead of him in Vasilevskiy.
LW Isaac Howard: BriseBois has made just two first-round picks in four summers as GM. He traded Nolan Foote in 2020 for Blake Coleman. Howard is the other, an undersized winger who tore up the USNTDP and is having a mediocre year at Minnesota-Duluth.
C Jack Finley: Finley is a 6-foot-6 center who was a 2020 2nd Round Pick. That kind of size is always going to grab someone’s attention.