Panthers’ Sam Reinhart debuts as No. 1 free agent on Daily Faceoff’s Top 50 UFAs

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Credit: Feb 29, 2024; Sunrise, Florida, USA; Florida Panthers center Sam Reinhart (13) reacts after scoring against the Montreal Canadiens during the second period at Amerant Bank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

When the Carolina Hurricanes took a well-earned breath between playoff rounds this week, the focus shifted from games to gamesmanship, as conversation ramped up about how and why coach Rod Brind’Amour remains without a contract extension.

Brind’Amour is one of a handful of genuinely curious subjects sans a signature on an extension.

Perhaps none bigger than Florida Panthers right winger Sam Reinhart, who is the No. 1 ranked player on Daily Faceoff‘s first Top 50 Free Agents board of the offseason. Reinhart, 28, finished second only to Auston Matthews in goals and set new career highs in goals (57) and points (94) while helping the Cats capture their second division title in three years.

To this point, all sides in the Reinhart negotiation have said the right things.

Reinhart characterized negotiations on our Frankly Speaking podcast in January as “ongoing” and “definitely positive.” It is unclear whether those talks have continued, or whether they’ve been tabled during the playoffs. He said he wants to remain a Panther.

“That’s the goal. I love it in Florida and I know they’re happy to have me,” Reinhart said in January. “I’m just happy with where we’re at as a team right now.”

So, since Reinhart also said he was comfortable then with talks ongoing, why isn’t a deal done? The Panthers have some cap flexibility on the way. He is a fantastic fit with Aleksander Barkov. And they’ve got the no state income tax advantage. Shouldn’t everyone just agree on eight years and $76 million and not bleep with happy?

If it were that easy, it would be done by now. Our friends at AFP Analytics projected Reinhart at eight years and $10.2 million for a total of $81.6 million. Toronto’s William Nylander finished with four more points than Reinhart but 17 fewer goals, and he signed an eight-year, $92 million deal at $11.5 million per year.

Will it factor in? In theory yes, but in practicality, it shouldn’t due to the 17 percent difference in tax. At a $9.5 million AAV, Reinhart would net more in pay than Nylander’s $11.5 million. In fact, a player in Toronto would need to earn $12.875 million per year to be equivalent in net pay to Matthew Tkachuk’s $9.5 million, according to the tax calculator at Gavin Hockey Wealth Specialists.

There is also the matter of Reinhart’s career-highs coming in a contract year. He shot the lights out at a league-best 24.5 percent, some of which is repeatable because of how close in he scored his goals. But his career average over three seasons in Florida is 41 goals, and that’s factoring in the 57 he scored this year. How much of a premium are the Panthers willing to pay based on one statistical outlier season? How would they balance that with trying to replace him? It all adds to the intrigue of a deep and talented but aging free agent class that potentially includes Steven Stamkos, Jake Guentzel, Patrick Kane and Jonathan Marchessault.

The countdown to free agency’s July 1 opening is on. Here is Daily Faceoff‘s first Top 50 Free Agent ranking of the offseason, with contract projections provided by AFP Analytics: (Note: AFP Analytics has not done its full summer free agent projection yet, and these numbers are based off statistics and models from January.)

RankPlayerPosAgeTeamCap HitGPGPTSAFP Proj*
1Sam ReinhartRW29FLA$6.5M8257948 x $10.2M
2Jake GuentzelLW30CAR$6M6730776 x $8M
3Steven StamkosLW/C34TBL$8.5M7940813 x $6.3M
4Patrick KaneRW36DET$2.75M5020472 x $5.5M
5Joe PavelskiRW40DAL$5.5M8227671 x $4M
6Brady SkjeiLD30CAR$5.25M8013476 x $7.4M
7Jonathan MarchessaultRW34VGK$5M8242693 x $6.25M
8Elias LindholmC/RW30VAN$4.85M7515447 x $8M
9Brandon MontourRD30FLA$3.5M668337 x $8.7M
10Matt DucheneC/RW33DAL$3M8025653 x $6.5M
11Matt RoyRD29LAK$3.15M815254 x $5.5M
12Brett PesceRD30CAR$4.03M703136 x $6.7M
13Teuvo TeravainenLW30CAR$5.4M7625535 x $6.3M
14Tyler BertuzziLW29TOR$5.5M8021435 x $6M
15Nikita ZadorovLD29VAN$3.75M756204 x $5M
16Chandler StevensonC30VGK$2.75M7516515 x $5.7M
17Tyler ToffoliRW32WPG$4.25M7933555 x $6.5M
18Jonathan DrouinLW29COL$825K7919564 X $4.5M
19Max DomiRW29TOR$3M809473 x $4.2M
20Sean WalkerRD30COL$2.65M8110294 x $4.8M
21Oliver Ekman-LarssonLD33FLA$2.25M809323 x $3.7M
22Dakota JoshuaLW28VAN$825K6318323 x $3M
23Vladimir TarasenkoRW33FLA$5M7623553 x $5.6M
24Jalen ChatfieldRD28CAR$763K728223 x $2.7M
25Jake DeBruskLW28BOS$4M8019405 x $6M
26Alexandre CarrierRD30NSH$2.5M734203 x $2.7M
27Shayne GostisbehereLD31DET$4.13M8110563 x $4.4M
28Sean MonahanC30WPG$2M8326593 x $2.9M
29Anthony DuclairLW29TBL$3M7324423 x $3.25M
30Yakov TreninLW/C28COL$1.7M7612173 x $3.3M
31Alex NedeljkovicG29PIT$1.5M382.96.9022 x $2M
32David PerronRW36DET$4.75M7617472 x 2.8M
33Viktor ArvidssonRW31LAK$4.25M18615n/a
34Brenden DillonLD34WPG$3.9M778202 x $3.9M
35Ian ColeLD35VAN$3M782112 x $3M
36Tyler MyersRD34VAN$6M775292 x 2.7M
37Jason ZuckerLW32NSH$5.3M6914323 x $5.4M
38Matt DumbaRD30TBL$3.9M764123 x $3.7M
39Alex WennbergC30NYR$4.5M7910304 x $4.2M
40Dylan DeMeloRD31WPG$3M823314 x $5M
41Matt GrzelcykLD31BOS$3.7M632113 x $4M
42Chris TanevRD35DAL$4.5M752193 x $4.7M
43Erik GustafssonLD32NYR$825K766313 x $5M
44Daniel SprongRW27DET$2M7618433 x $3.8M
45Kaapo KahkonenG28NJD$2.75M373.64.8982 x $3M
46Teddy BluegerC30VAN$1.9M686282 x $2.6M
47Jordan MartinookLW32CAR$1.8M8214322 x $2.8M
48Ilya SamsonovG27TOR$3.55M403.13.8902 x $3.25M
49T.J. BrodieLD34TOR$5M781263 x $4.8M
50Vincent DesharnaisRD28EDM$763K781112 x $1.4M

Salary cap data courtesy of CapFriendly.
Contract projections courtesy of AFP Analytics.

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