Winnipeg Jets vs. Colorado Avalanche: 2024 Stanley Cup playoff series preview and pick
Winnipeg Jets: 2nd in Central Division, 110 points
Colorado Avalanche: 3rd in Central Division, 107 points
Schedule (ET)
| Date | Game | Time |
| Sunday, April 21 | 1. Colorado at Winnipeg | 7 p.m. ET |
| Tuesday, April 23 | 2. Colorado at Winnipeg | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| Friday, April 26 | 3. Winnipeg at Colorado | 10 p.m. ET |
| Sunday, April 28 | 4. Winnipeg at Colorado | 2:30 p.m. ET |
| Tuesday, April 30 | 5. Colorado at Winnipeg | TBD |
| Thursday, May 2 | 6. Winnipeg at Colorado | TBD |
| Saturday, May 4 | 7. Colorado at Winnipeg | TBD |
The Skinny
The Central Division looked like the league’s best this season, or at least the one with the most top-end teams, which meant two really good squads were destined to meet in the first round. With Dallas Stars securing the division title, that problem falls on the Winnipeg Jets and the Colorado Avalanche.
These two teams have actually never met in the playoffs before, whether that be during the Jets’ time in Winnipeg or during the franchise’s previous iteration as the Atlanta Thrashers. In fact, the Colorado franchise hasn’t played a playoff series against any Winnipeg team going back to their time as the Quebec Nordiques, as they also never played the Jets team that operated from 1980 to 1996 and went on to become the Phoenix/Arizona Coyotes/soon-to-be Utah whatevers.
After the Jet’s five-game playoff run against the Vegas Golden Knights last season that went out with a whimper, many expected the departures of Pierre-Luc Dubois and Blake Wheeler and the pending UFA statuses of Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele to indicate the end of this era of the Jets and the start of a rebuild. Instead, Hellebuyck and Scheifele signed long-term, and the pieces they got in return for Dubois have helped establish new-found depth for the Jets to succeed, a strength that’s only improved since the trade deadline. Combine that with a defense and goaltending that went 34-straight games allowing three or fewer goals, and they seem as strong as they’ve ever been in their time in Winnipeg.
The Avalanche were also coming off a disappointing playoff exit in the first round, losing in seven games to the Seattle Kraken after hoping that they’d follow up on their 2022 Stanley Cup, failing largely in part due to the lack of depth on the team. They entered 2023-24 with similar problems, including another season with captain Gabriel Landeskog on the shelf, but that didn’t matter this time. Nathan MacKinnon took over with a season that may earn him a Hart Trophy, Mikko Rantanen and Cale Makar continued to be their incredible selves, the Avs improved their depth at the trade deadline, and they look tough to beat again.
Will the Jets finally recapture the magic of this core that they had in the 2018 playoffs and best the Avs to go on a deep run? Or will the Avs’ superstar talent and Cup-winning pedigree give them the edge and set them on a path toward another championship?
Head-to-Head
Winnipeg: 3-0-0
Colorado: 0-3-0
The Jets and Avs only played three games against each other this season due to the schedule matrix, and it was all Jets in their season series. Two of the games came during the Jets 34-game run of allowing three goals or fewer (and actually were during their 22-game run allowing two or fewer), so already the Avs had slim margins to work with. The first game in early December saw the Jets take a 2-0 lead in Colorado and never let the Avs get closer than to within one on their way to a 4-2 win, although the Avs had a 53.31% 5v5 score-adjusted expected goal share. A bit more than a week later, they had a rematch in Winnipeg and it didn’t go much better for the Avs, with the Jets dominating in goals 6-2 and under the hood with a 66.29% 5v5 SA xG share. Finally, they met again this past Saturday in Colorado, and not only did the Jets dominate with a 7-0 win and a 55.43% 5v5 SA xG share in the game, it was mid-game that the two teams learned they would be each other’s opponents. Across all three games, the Jets outscored the Avs 15-4 and had a 55.13% 5v5 SA xG share, so Colorado will have to hope that they can solve the Jets in the playoffs.
Top Five Scorers
Winnipeg
Mark Scheifele, 72 points
Josh Morrissey, 69 points
Kyle Connor, 61 points
Nikolaj Ehlers, 61 point
Sean Monahan, 59 points (24 with Jets)
Colorado
Nathan MacKinnon, 140 points
Mikko Rantanen, 104 points
Cale Makar, 90 points
Casey Mittelstadt, 57 points (10 with Avalanche)
Jonathan Drouin, 56 points
X-Factor
I’ve beaten this drum all season when discussing the Winnipeg Jets, but the biggest deciding factor in this series will be how head coach Rick Bowness utilizes Nikolaj Ehlers. While the Danish winger has been underplayed for all of his career, only three of his nine seasons have seen him average fewer than 16 minutes a game, and two of those have been under Bowness. They have a bit more depth to excuse those decisions right now, but Ehlers has the best 5v5 points per 60 and third-best 5v5 xG share among the forwards and is well ahead of the Mark Scheifeles and Kyle Connors that get more notoriety with this roster. The Jets don’t have the same star power that the Avs do, so if they want to match that, they need to utilize their best players, and you aren’t doing that playing Ehlers 15:50 a night.
Offense
The Jets have generally been known over the course of this core’s tenure as a strong offensive team at the expense of their defense, but they produced just 3.14 goals per game this season, which ranked 15th in the league. Their 5v5 production was a little bit better, with a 2.62 5v5 goals for per 60 minutes that was tied for 11th and the 10th-ranked 2.76 5v5 expected goals for per 60 this season, so the biggest reason their per-game stats were so bad was because of their power play, which was 22nd in the league at 19%. But after acquiring Sean Monahan, that power play saw significant improvement, jumping to 24.7%, which was tied for ninth in the league.
Scheifele, Connor, and Ehlers are the normal suspects in terms of their top-end talent, and Gabriel Vilardi, Tyler Toffoli and Monahan have complemented their top six perfectly as additions this year. Beyond that, there are no high-octane scorers but a lot of solid scorers that can chip in when needed. They have five forwards beyond their top six who scored at least 30 points this season, and their 12th-highest scoring forward, Alex Iafallo, still had 26. Oh, and all 12 forwards scored at least 10 goals this season. On the blueline, they get a lot of their offense from Josh Morrissey, but Neal Pionk and Dylan DeMelo have also added some depth there with 30-point seasons.
At this point in time, the Colorado Avalanche boast the best offense in the league, with their 3.67 goals per game being the most from any team this season. They can thank the sixth-best power play clicking at 24.5% and a talented roster shooting a bit above its weight for that, as despite ranking second with 2.98 5v5 goals for per 60, their 2.73 5v5 expected goals for per 60 ranks just 11th in the league. That said, this is a team with MacKinnon, Makar and Rantanen, so I’d say that overperforming their metrics has more to do with the quality of their roster than luck.
Of course, when you have names like those three on your roster, your offense will always be one to be scared of. Even a normal MacKinnon season would be a problem, but MacKinnon is on a whole other level this season with 51 goals and 138 points. Rantanen and Makar are having “standard” seasons that would qualify as career years for most players. To round out the top end of their roster, Valeri Nichushkin and Artturi Lehkonen have produced at a strong pace when they’ve been in the lineup, Jonathan Drouin has had a bounceback season beside his former Halifax Moosehead linemate, Devon Toews is on the verge of 50 points for the third straight season, and Casey Mittelstadt has been solid since joining the team.
Beyond that, though, the Avs don’t have quite the same depth that the Jets do, as Ross Colton is their only other forward with more than 30 points, and no other forward on the roster has more than Iafallo’s 26 points. On the blueline, it’s the same story. After Makar and Toews, no other defenseman has more than 30, although new addition Sean Walker is just under that mark at 28. It’s certainly a matchup of stars vs. depth in terms of offense this series.
Defense
While the Jets offense had taken a slight step back this season, their defense is a bit more improved. In the past, they were horrendous at suppressing scoring chances, mostly relying on the play of goaltender Connor Hellebuyck to keep them in games. While Hellebuyck’s play has been on par with his career, the Jets have taken big steps defensively to at least be passable in front of him. On the surface, they’re currently in the position to lead the league in fewest goals against per game with 2.41 and 5v5 goals against per 60 with 1.78, so you would consider that to be massive progress, but some of that is still due to Hellebuyck. Beyond that, the Jets are tied with – interestingly enough – the Avalanche in 5v5 expected goals against per 60 with 2.52. Still the kind of defense you’d hope for from a playoff-caliber team, but maybe not the best in the league. They also did see some struggles on the penalty kill, with a 77.2% rating that was only 21st in the league.
Part of that is because of the play of their top line in Scheifele, Connor and Vilardi, who make up three of the five forwards this season to have a negative defensive goals above replacement. That line is clearly there to create offense and if Bowness ever confuses them for a shutdown unit against a top line, that will be their opposition’s chance to take advantage. But this is where their depth comes into play, because beyond that line, everyone is at least decent defensively. Players like Iafallo, Adam Lowry, Cole Perfetti, Nino Niederreiter and Vladislav Namestnikov are all excellent defensive players, and outside of Neal Pionk, who’s more of a power-play specialist, their blueline is also quite solid in their own zone.
As I mentioned before, the Avs were actually tied with the Jets in terms of their scoring chance suppression, but the numbers beyond that are a much different story. While their penalty kill is much better, ranking 12th in the league at 80.2%, they were also tied for 16th in goals against per game with 3.1 and 19th in 5v5 goals against per 60 with 2.59. Some of that is due to their injury/depth problems to start the season, some of it was due to their goaltending, but they are a better defensive team than many will realize. You also have to imagine that considering it was much better in the seasons leading up to their Stanley Cup win in 2022 and the experience this team has, they might be able to flip that switch and improve come playoff time, but that also didn’t happen last season like many thought it would.
As far as their player makeup goes defensively, the only player that really acts as a liability in their own end is Miles Wood, who has a -6 defensive GAR (which is also the 25th-worst mark in the league). That’s not to say that their roster is a defensive juggernaut otherwise, as 11 of the 18 players who will likely make up their main lineup for the playoffs have negative GARs, but outside of Wood, Colton (-1.1) and Trenin (-1), all of them fall in the range of 0 to -1, which is basically null. They’re almost a mirror image of the Jets in that regard, because their only line that has strong defensive results is their top line of Lehkonen, MacKinnon and Drouin. On their blueline, though, it’s a bit better, with only Walker and Samuel Girard playing below replacement level on this team. That said, only Devon Toews has been exceptional defensively, as even Cale Makar has been middling in that regard.
Goaltending
Much like how MacKinnon is the catalyst that puts the Avalanche’s offensive results ahead of the Jets despite similar underlying numbers, the Jets goaltending is the reason why they have looked so good defensively. Hellebuyck is the star of the show, making himself the easy Vezina frontrunner this season by leading all goalies with at least 30 games played with a .922% save percentage, and by far having the lead in 5v5 goals saved above expected with 34.37. For comparison, second placed Jeremy Swayman has only 19.91. Hellebuyck is the best goalie in the league right now and has the ability to swing a series in the Jets favor all on his own, and now that they’re actually playing capable defense in front of him, it’s all the easier for him to make an impact.
But even if the Avs can get past Hellebuyck and chase him out of the net, the Jets still have a strong second option. Laurent Brossoit has been just as good in the crease for Winnipeg, as he leads all goalies with at least 20 starts in save percentage with .928%, and he’s ninth in the league in 5v5 GSAx with 13.41. There’s certainly no controversy over who gets the start in the playoffs, but if Hellebuyck has a bad night or gets hurt, the series is far from over with Brossoit in net.
On the Avs’ side of the ice, it’s a bit of a different story. While the only reason Hellebuyck didn’t lead the league in wins is because his 36 is just behind Alexandar Georgiev’s 38, Georgiev has not been nearly as good to get there. His .898% save percentage is the fifth-worst among goalies with 40 starts, and his -5.51 5v5 GSAx is the seventh-worst in the league. That’s not all on him, as he’s likely dealing with some fatigue being only behind Juuse Saros in terms of games played this season, but that doesn’t exactly inspire confidence for a long, grueling playoff run.
Part of the reason why Georgiev had such a big workload is because, for the longest time, the Avs didn’t have a lot of confidence in their backup goaltender. Ivan Prosvetov got the gig to start the year and did not fare well, but once they gave the role to Justus Annunen, there was a bit more stability. He joined the team for Game 45 of the season, and in those remaining 38 games, he played in 13 and helped lighten Georgiev’s workload a bit. He performed well too, with a .925% save percentage and 2.37 goals saved above expected, so you know the Avalanche aren’t in deep trouble if Georgiev struggles. But with only 17 games of NHL experience, and none in the playoffs, the Jets probably feel a bit more confident in their backup situation.
Injuries
While the regular season isn’t done yet, the Jets appear to be in remarkable health going into the first round. Niederreiter is their lone injury at the moment, and he is day-to-day and even possible to return on Tuesday against the Seattle Kraken, so the Jets will likely have their full lineup by the time this series begins.
The Avalanche technically don’t have any injuries, at least in terms of players they expect to see come playoff time. They do have three significant players injured, but Colorado isn’t exactly holding their breath for them to return to the team come playoff time. Logan O’Connor, the only of the three to actually play this season, had season-ending hip surgery in March, while both captain Gabriel Landeskog and goaltender Pavel Francouz have been out all season. There’s been some talk that Landeskog has made enough progress to possibly return later down the line during the playoffs, but considering there haven’t been any significant updates recently, he’s probably going to be out for all of Round 1.
Intangibles
While the playoff struggles of this Jets’ core aren’t talked about as much as other teams in the league, it’s been the same story every year for Winnipeg. They’ll have a solid to strong start to the regular season, wither a little bit in the second half of the season, and then flame out come playoff time. The second-half downfall wasn’t quite as bad as previous seasons, but there were still more struggles. This franchise has won just three playoff series in its history, with two of those coming in their Western Conference Final run in 2018, and only Connor, Ehlers, Hellebuyck, Lowry, Morrissey and Scheifele remain from that roster. They have just two players with a Cup win under their belt in Toffoli and Brossoit, and the latter spent the final two and a half rounds injured, so this is a team that certainly lacks the experience some teams would hope to have.
The Avs obviously have their fair share of experience having just won the Cup two seasons ago, especially with their most important players. Ten players remain from their 2022 Cup-winning roster, and they have three more sitting on injured reserve, so they are certainly experienced. But this isn’t the exact same team that they had that year, certainly in terms of their depth, with Colton being the lone addition who has a Stanley Cup ring. But again, their most experienced players are their star players, and that’s much more important than having a bunch of fringe players who’ve won once or twice.
Series prediction
This is a tough one to call. Both teams have seen similar results under the hood in terms of offense and defense, but in terms of their talent, the Avs have the stars to take over games and the Jets have a goalie who can steal them. The Jets have immense levels of depth, but the Avs have the superior talent. It basically comes down to luck, experience, and making the right choices, and while luck is hard to predict, I certainly have a lot more confidence in the Avs’ experience and their head coach Jared Bednar’s decision-making than I do in the Jets’ experience and Rick Bowness’ decision-making. It’s going to be close, but for now I have to go with the team that has proven it a lot more. I could still see Hellebuyck making me look absolutely silly for this pick, though.
Avalanche in seven games.
_____
_____
New Year, New Gear! Check out Nation Gear’s latest collections – hoodies, t-shirts, hats and more for your favorite fans! Plus, keep up to date on upcoming events and travel by subscribing to our newsletter. Shop now at nationgear.ca
_____