Best NHL player prop bets (Nov. 21): Carlson’s one-timer vital to Washington’s power play with Ovechkin out

Washington Capitals defenseman John Carlson (74) reacts against the Carolina Hurricanes during the first period Lenovo Center.
Credit: James Guillory-Imagn Images

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL props available on Thursday night.

John Carlson Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: +125 Sports Interaction

Due to Alex Ovechkin’s absence, Washington’s top power-play unit will be offering a considerably different look, and it seems likely to expect more efforts to set up Carlson’s one-timer in this matchup. Jakob Chychrun has been elevated to the top unit, and will likely man the top of the 1-3-1 and look to slide pucks over to Carlson.

Even if my speculation that Ovechkin being sidelined might be favorable to Carlson’s shot volume, his recent body of work already suggests +125 is a great number for over 2.5 shots on goal. Carlson has gone over 2.5 shots on goal in five of the last seven games, and averaged three shots on goal.

Joonas Korpisalo Under 2.5 Goals Allowed: -105 Sports Interaction

The ‘new coach-bounce’ was a real narrative in the NHL last season, as a number of teams such as the Edmonton Oilers and St. Louis Blues went on significant runs after bringing in new coaching regimes. All indications are that former Bruins bench boss Jim Montgomery is truly a good coach, and he was somewhat of a sacrificial lamb for a Boston roster which is simply flawed at this point.

Still, this sets up as a good spot to target the Bruins looking more like the quality defensive side they have been in the three seasons previous to this. Expect an urgent effort featuring plenty of attention to detail from the Bruins, and they get a great opponent in Utah to shore things up defensively.

Utah ranks 21st in goals scored per game this season, and has generated only 2.68 xGF/60 over the last 10 games.

Among all of Boston’s poblems this season, Korpisalo’s form actually hasn’t been one of them, as he holds a .901 save % and played to a +0.1 GSAx. Those numbers become even more excellent if you eliminate his ugly opening night showing versus the Panthers from a sample of just seven games.

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