Best NHL player prop bets (Nov. 14): Sabres’ Cozens to play bigger offensive role in Thompson’s absence

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL props available on Thursday night.

Dylan Cozens Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: -110 Sports Interaction

Tage Thompson has been confirmed out for this matchup, which leaves a massive hole for the Sabres. Buffalo is going to need some skaters to elevate their play in this matchup, and I think that this is a good spot to back Cozens in the prop market.

Cozens has gone over 2.5 shots in eight of 16 games this season, so it’s not like we have to move the needle that much to argue -110 is a good number. Especially against the Blues, who are allowing 31.13 shots against per 60 this season and are skating a suspect defensive core.

Cozens will skate alongside JJ Peterka and Jack Quinn, and that line should be threatening in this matchup. After a horrid start to the year, Quinn has shown better of late, and Peterka has been the Sabres’ second-best forward by a wide margin.

While the Blues rarely hold much of the play, they often do a good job of keeping games close and there should be plenty of game scripts in which that unit sees a lot of ice.

Cozens is always on the Sabres top power-play unit, but it looks like he may be moving to Thompson’s spot on the left-hash mark, as opposed to his usual bumper spot, which would also help the chances of this prop.

Joel Farabee Under 1.5 Shots on Goal: +120 Sports Interaction

Farabee has put up 11 shots on goal in the last three games, and gone over 1.5 shots on goal in each of those matchups. However this sets up to sell given the matchup and the price tag, as he doesn’t project to shoot at that kind of volume over a larger sample.

The Senators have allowed only 22.7 shots against per game over their last three matchups. Over the entirety of the season, they have allowed the sixth-fewest shots on goal.

Farabee has gone under 1.5 in nine of 16 matchups this season, which already makes a great case that +120 is a good play. He looks likely to remain alongside Scott Laughton and Bobby Brink on the second line, a unit which has played to an expected goal share of just 40.1% this season.

He’s received slightly more minutes from coach John Tortorella recently, but I’m not convinced that will be the case every night. He owns a -6 rating over the last five games, and could be on thin ice for a bench boss that will happily sit skilled forwards for suspect defensive play.

He ranks 10th among Flyers skaters with 11.49 shot attempts per 60 this season. In a tough matchup versus a Senators side that has done an excellent job suppressing opposing shooters recently, +120 presents as a good price for him to go under 1.5 shots.