Best NHL player prop bets (Nov. 15): Betting markets lagging on this Vegas forward’s shot volume

Join Daily Faceoff’s Nick Martin as he handicaps the best NHL props available on Friday night.

Kirill Marchenko Anytime Goalscorer: +200 Sports Interaction

It’s becoming more and more apparent that the Penguins have no answers to their horrid defensive play this season. They have allowed the second-most goals against per game in the league this year, which runs in line with their 3.46 xGA/60 rating.

Erik Karlsson has probably been slightly better than he is being credited for, but is still clearly making some costly mistakes in key areas of the ice. Kris Letang has been exposed consistently defensively, and newcomer Matt Grzelcyk has been a disaster. It’s becoming more apparent that Sidney Crosby’s defensive play has tailed off considerably at age 37 as well (-1.8 xDEF), a point that likely won’t really be noted unless he struggles defensively in the 4 Nations Cup.

A matchup versus the Penguins provides a great spot to target the Blue Jackets’ top scorer in Kirill Marchenko, who has been a great player to back in the prop markets thus far. Marchenko and Sean Monahan have generated a ton of chances in even-strength play all season long, and should remain comparably productive as a result.

Marchenko and Monahan skated with Dmitri Voronkov last time out as opposed to Yegor Chinakhov, and that unit generated 6.84 expected goals for per 60. Voronkov showed plenty of offensive upside at the tail end of last season, and doesn’t hurt the offensive upside of the Jackets’ top line.

Pavel Dorofeyev Over 2.5 Shots on Goal: -135 Sports Interaction

This is one of the chalkier plays on the board tonight, but it’s hard to fathom how this price hasn’t moved more given Dorofeyev’s recent shot volume. He has gone over 2.5 in eight of the last 10 games, and has averaged 3.8 shots on goal in that span.

While he didn’t enter the season as an overly-esteemed skater, he has quickly become a key piece of the Knights roster. He’s skating on the second line alongside Tomas Hertl and Brett Howden, and has benefitted from Hertl returning to top form as he acclimates to life as a Golden Knight.

Most importantly for this prop, Dorofeyev’s one-timer from the right circle has become the team’s preferred look on the power play, and teams still tend to cheat more towards Jack Eichel on the other side. Dorofeyev leads all Vegas skaters with 11.44 shots per 60, and is attempting 17.66 shots per 60.

Utah is playing fairly low-event hockey, but this is not a matchup to be afraid of overall. Utah has allowed 29.06 shots against per 60 this season, which ranks right in the middle of the league.

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