2023 NHL Trade Deadline Playbook: Pittsburgh Penguins

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Suddenly, we’re now fewer than three weeks away until the NHL’s March 3 trade deadline. Don’t worry, we’ve got you covered at Daily Faceoff with at least one trade-focused story each day leading up to Deadline Day.

Today we’re going to take a deep dive on the Pittsburgh Penguins, who don’t have much room to work with on the salary cap and are questioning how active they should be before the deadline.

2023 Trade Deadline Countdown: 18 days

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS
Current Record: 26-17-9, 61 points (1st Eastern Conference Wild Card)
President of Hockey Operations: Brian Burke (2nd full season)
General Manager: Ron Hextall (2nd full season)
Head Coach: Mike Sullivan (8th season)
Captain: Sidney Crosby (16th season)

Last Year: Lost in Eastern Conference quarterfinal (4-3) to New York Rangers

Current Lineup: Click Here

Goals For: 3.23 per game (14th)
Goals Against: 3.12 per game (18th)
Power Play: 22 percent (17th)
Penalty Kill: 80.6 percent (12th)

Key Additions
RD Jeff Petry – Acquired from Montreal on July 16
RD Jan Rutta – Signed to 3-year, $8.25 million deal on July 13
LD Ty Smith – Acquired from New Jersey on July 16

Key Subtractions
RD John Marino – Traded to New Jersey on July 16
LD Mike Matheson – Traded to Montreal on July 16

Trainer’s Table
G Tristan Jarry – Expected to return this week after missing 13 of last 15 games
RD Jan Rutta – Expected to return this week after missing one month of action
RD Kris Letang – Missed 18 games after suffering a stroke and for personal reasons
RD Jeff Petry – Missed 16 games with upper-body injury suffered on Dec. 10

The Penguins’ back end has been a MASH unit with the injuries suffered. But more concerning than that is the status of goaltender Tristan Jarry, who has missed 13 of the Pens’ last 15 games with upper and lower-body injuries. Those injuries are believed to be related to a chronic hip issue that has had a compounding effect on other injuries as he attempts to compensate. Jarry is also a pending unrestricted free agent. When healthy, Jarry has been outstanding with a .921 save percentage this season, but reliability and dependability are two of the biggest abilities when it comes to that position.

Rewind: 2022 Deadline Playbook

It’s often helpful to take a look back at what the Burke/Hextall regime did last season to glean any potential insight on this year’s deadline.

March 21, 2022
To Pittsburgh: Rickard Rakell
To Anaheim: 2022 2nd Round Pick (Tristan Luneau), Calle Clang, Zach Aston-Reese, Dominik Simon, 35 percent retained on Rakell

March 21, 2022
To Pittsburgh: Nathan Beaulieu
To Winnipeg: [Nothing] – Conditional 7th Round Pick that did not transfer as Pens did not win three rounds

Jan. 5, 2022
To Pittsburgh: Alex Nylander
To Chicago: Sam Lafferty

The Pens attempted to address secondary scoring concerns by acquiring Rakell last season, hoping he would add pop below Sidney Crosby and propel Pittsburgh on a deep playoff run. It never happened. Jarry went down with injury before the playoffs began, followed shortly thereafter by Casey DeSmith, leaving the crease to third goaltender Louis Domingue. Rakell also suffered a concussion in Game 1 of that series and was unable to return until Game 7 as the Rangers overcame a 3-1 series deficit to extinguish the Penguins in the first round for the fourth consecutive spring.

Two of Pittsburgh’s sizable trades over the last 14 months have been definitive losses to this point. John Marino was traded to New Jersey in exchange for Ty Smith and the cap flexibility to acquire Petry. Marino was excellent for the Devils before missing the last six weeks with injury. And the Blackhawks scooped up Sam Lafferty from Pittsburgh in a non-descript January deal last season for AHL salary dump Alex Nylander, a move that will pay dividends for Chicago.

How did we get here?

The Penguins have a lot riding on this season – a 16-year playoff streak, an uncertain future in net with oft-injured goaltender Jarry in the final year of his deal, and a roster with championship pedigree whose window to win inched closer to being closed with each passing season.

The entire hockey world wondered how Hextall and Co. would approach last offseason. What would they do with pending free agents Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin and Bryan Rust? They re-signed them all and even inked last year’s trade deadline piece Rakell to a new, long-term deal. They committed nearly $122 million to those four players, then went out and traded for 35-year-old defenseman Petry, who had three years and $20 million in cash owed on his deal.

How have the Penguins returned the favor? They are in the middle of pack in the NHL in just about every statistical category. Aside from the stats quoted above, they are 15th in scoring chances for and 16th in scoring chances against. As Hextall recently said, he likes his team so much on paper, but not so much the results.

Outside of their big three forwards – Crosby, Malkin and Jake Guentzel – the Penguins’ depth scoring has dried up and their defense and goaltender have been banged up. Both Crosby and Malkin have over a point a game and Guentzel is just off that pace with 47 in 48 games. After that, the drop-off is stark. Rakell, Rust and Jason Zucker have yet to provide the secondary scoring they’re paid to produce with their new contracts and respective cap hits. The Pens’ third and fourth lines have had an even tougher time finding the back of the net with Jeff Carter, who has slowed down a lot, pacing the group with 20 points in 49 games. Danton Heinen is well off his 18-goal pace from a year ago and Kasperi Kapanen, who has been a healthy scratch, has been such a disappointment on his new two-year deal that the Penguins would have to pay someone to take him off their hands.

With Letang and Petry missing a sizable chunk of the season, Brian Dumolin has looked like a shell of himself this year. He is a pending free agent and all of those games and deep playoff runs finally appear to be catching up to the steady rearguard. That has left guys such as Marcus Pettersson, Pierre-Olivier Joseph, Mark Friedman and Chad Ruhwedel to carry the water for the Penguins in assignments they’re not really slated to take on.

Nonetheless, the Penguins have battled – not shockingly, they are dragged into the fight by Crosby. When Crosby is on his game, he can still almost singlehandedly lead them to wins. A staggering 52 of his 63 points this season have come in the 35 games in which the Penguins have earned at least a point (26-0-9).

So as bad as things have been for the Penguins this season with the critical injuries they’ve suffered on the back end and many of their key support players underperforming up front, they still find themselves in position to push their playoff streak to 17 seasons. They might even be able to make some noise. Consider: Mostly this same roster, without both of their goalies last year, took the eventual Eastern Conference finalist Rangers to a seven-game series last year and lost. A bounce here or there and we might be looking at the Penguins this season through a different prism. So how is Hextall going to approach this year’s deadline?

Deadline Posture: Should be Buyers

Hextall spoke to the media on Feb. 5 to kick off the second half of the season and made headlines by saying that he did not expect to trade his first-round pick in the upcoming 2023 Draft. He more or less openly questioned the strength of his team.

That is understandable from Hextall’s perspective. Draft experts say this has the potential to be a historically deep Draft. And the Penguins’ playoff position is still precarious. They’re just one point ahead of the Islanders and two points ahead of the Panthers, though they have multiple games in-hand on both.

The allure of adding a first-round pick to a barren prospect cupboard is surely intoxicating. The Penguins have picked just twice in the first round since 2014. But it makes little sense with the moves Hextall orchestrated this past offseason and the money and assets committed to this aging core. At some point the bill is going to come due, and when that happens it is going to be ugly in Pittsburgh.

So why would Hextall pour cold water on trading the Penguins’ first-round pick when his team needs help and clearly they’re not getting any younger?

There is nuance in this. I believe the question asked that produced that quote revolved around the idea of Hextall trading his pick to alleviate salary cap constraints. And that probably doesn’t make much sense. With a light prospect pool and little help on the way, the Pens can find a way to add to help this year’s team and the couple years that follow. Not doing so is a waste of another year of Crosby’s service to the franchise and its fans. This team needs help and needs it this season. Drafting in the No. 15 to No. 20 overall range, in a best-case scenario, that player will not be producing for the franchise for three to five years. Crosby will be knocking on the door of age 40 then. Not including this year’s first-round pick will really limit their success and options this season.

Deadline Objectives

To accomplish their goals, the Penguins will need to think outside the box and get creative. Yes, they are in a dollars-in, dollars-out type of scenario with the salary cap. But that is a temporary problem as Zucker and Dumoulin come off the books this summer, which would provide $9.6 million in salary cap flexibility. If the salary cap rises an additional $3 to $3.5 million, as we expect, then that would be even more space to perhaps add on the back end.

Top Objective: Second Line Scoring Winger

Simply put, the Pens have to find a way to increase their productivity outside of Crosby, Malkin and Guentzel. The question is whether or not the Penguins have the assets and stomach to go big.

Secondary Objective: Defender

That is a defender, as in the pure sense of the position, not merely just a defenseman. The injuries to Letang and Petry, plus the overall play of Dumoulin, should have the Penguins thinking about a way to beef up the blueline.

Potential Targets

Timo Meier, San Jose Sharks: If this sounds crazy, hear us out. The Penguins go all-in and go after Meier, who is a restricted free agent. Yes, he’s due a $10 million qualifying offer, but he could be signed long-term for south of that number. He could instantly slot with either Crosby or Malkin and give the Pens a pretty formidable two -line threat. That could bump Rust or Zucker down a line, boosting their third line as well. In the process, the Penguins would not only get over the hump this year and make another run in the short-term, but also be better for the next handful of years and extend the window to win.
Brock Boeser, Vancouver Canucks: Boeser has seen an increased role under new coach Rick Tocchet, which many teams just assume to be a showcasing opportunity. It is in their best interest (and Boeser’s best interest) to move on. Boeser would be a lower-case, less expensive opportunity compared to Meier but essentially the same train of thought.
Tyler Bertuzzi, Detroit Red Wings: If there were ever a prototypical Hextall fit available at the deadline, it is Bertuzzi. His contract could be affordable if the Wings were willing to take back Kapanen and Bertuzzi would provide the scoring touch and snarl that could help a Pittsburgh team in the postseason.
Jake McCabe, Chicago Blackhawks: With the Blackhawks’ willingness to retain up to half of McCabe’s $4 million salary, which has an additional two more years on it, how could the Penguins (or anyone else) be able to buy a better defenseman available on the market this summer at 2 years x $2 million?
Luke Schenn, Vancouver Canucks: Schenn played for Hextall in Philadelphia before he was dealt to the Los Angeles Kings in the 2016 trade deadline period. He would be a relatively low-cost (salary cap) addition to the group and help steady Pittsburgh defensively.

Trade Chips

Full Complement of Picks: Assuming the Penguins can and will explore trading their picks, they have their first and second-round pick allotment for each of these next three seasons.
RW Kasperi Kapanen: Kapanen is a salary dump at this point, hampered by the additional year remaining on his deal at $3.2 million. They aren’t exactly empty calories, but he still does manage to put up somewhere between 30-40 points every season, even if it isn’t pretty.
C Teddy Blueger: Blueger is a smart and effective depth player when he’s on point, but he has really struggled to produce this season at $2.2 million with just one goal and eight points. Unlike with Kapanen, there are a number of teams who would be interested in Blueger and willing to pay an asset for him if they need to find cap space and find the ask for Kapanen to be unpalatable. The problem is many think Blueger is a guy who will help you win in the playoffs.
G Joel Blomqvist: The Pens traded one of their top goalie prospects last year in Clang, the prize of the Rakell deal, because they had Blomqvist as well. He is just 21 and has put up solid numbers for Karpat in the Finnish Elite League. They have other goalie prospects, but Blomqvist is the best, and he could fetch a nice return in a league starved for goaltenders.
LD Owen Pickering: Pittsburgh may not want to trade this year’s first-round pick, but would they be willing to deal the guy they picked last year in the first-round? Pickering went No. 21 overall and has 31 points in 42 games for the WHL’s Swift Current Broncos.

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