2021 Fantasy Hockey Strength of Schedule

2020 has been a year unlike any other and the 2021 NHL season will look completely different from any we’ve ever seen before.

The 31 teams will be split into four divisions, the North, West Central and East. Teams will play a condensed 56-game schedule against the teams in their division and no one else. For the playoffs, the first two rounds will be intradivisional with the No.1 seed playing the No.4 seed and the No.2 and No.3 seeds facing-off. The four teams that emerge from their division will play each other in the Semifinals with seeding based on regular-season point totals–No.1 vs. No.4 and No.2 vs. No.3.

With such a bizarre schedule, how will it affect Fantasy Hockey? I took a look at team statistics over the most recent seasons to see if we could find any advantages.

There is no exact science for predicting outcomes this season but there are certain divisions that look like they may score more and others that will play lower-scoring games. Trying to get skaters in the higher-event divisions and goalies in the lower-event divisions may be the key to success in this strange 2021 Fantasy Hockey season.

Skaters

Using defensive statistics from the last two seasons, it’s immediately obvious that the North Division (or Canadian Division) looks like it will be the highest-scoring of the four divisions. Some of this has to do with the fact that most of these teams have not been very good defensively but also because they will play each other more. Because the North Division has only seven teams, they will play two teams 10 times and the other five nine times. For Winnipeg, who ranks No.1, they play Ottawa and Toronto 10 times. A season ago, Ottawa was 30th and Toronto was 26th in GoalsAgainst/Game.

Think of this as a “strength of schedule” for skaters. When you’re between two players on draft day, this should be a useful tool to help you make those tough decisions.

Detroit ranks last and that’s tough for a team that was dead last in GoalsFor/Game a season ago. However, they don’t have the luxury of playing themselves eight times this year and boosting their numbers like the other teams in the Central do.

As high-scoring as the North looks like it’s going to be, the opposite looks true for the West. That shouldn’t come as too much of a surprise however, Arizona, St. Louis and Colorado were all in the top-6 in GA/gm. This shouldn’t hinder your outlook on players like @Nathan MacKinnon or @Mikko Rantanen but it should be a determining factor when considering some of the periphery options on those teams.

Goalies

While the projected lower-scoring of the West Division could hurt MacKinnon, it should do wonders for someone like @Phillip Grubauer. He was a little bit disappointing a season ago, but he’s currently being drafted as the No.10 goalie (according to Yahoo ADPs) so expectations are high for the Avalanche netminder.

Other goalies that look strong and have good schedules and should be taken near the top of drafts are @Robin Lehner, @Jordan Binnington, @Darcy Kuemper and @Andrei Vasilevskiy.

Some of the top goalies that could see higher than normal GAA and SV% are @Connor Hellebuyck and @Carey Price.

Again, this shouldn’t be the end all be all when drafting but it is something worth considering. Price and Grubauer are being drafted about five spots apart right now and if you’re deciding between the two, Grubauer should have the much easier matchups throughout the season.