2022-23 NHL team preview: Winnipeg Jets
LAST SEASON
The Jets plodded their way through a wholly unremarkable 2021-22 campaign that saw them finish sixth in the Central Division (and 11th in the Western Conference) with a 39-32-11 record and 89 points.
While they scored their fair share of goals, the Jets really struggled on the defensive side on the puck and didn’t do much to support Connor Hellebuyck between the pipes. The only two teams in the Central to allow more goals last year were Chicago and Arizona. Yikes.
Despite being peppered with shots and posting an inflated 2.97 goals-against average, Hellebuyck still managed to keep his save percentage at .910 — not incredible, but also far from awful. The 29-year-old netminder should still have a lot of good hockey ahead of him, although it remains to be seen how much more time he’ll be spending in Winnipeg.
The 2021-22 season also went down as the final year of Blake Wheeler’s tenure as Jets captain. The 36-year-old forward was stripped of the “C” earlier this month after six seasons donning the insignia. But the captaincy change was pretty much the most notable on-ice change the Jets made this off-season. Otherwise, general manager Kevin Cheveldayoff elected to run it back with largely the same group.
Wheeler and Mark Scheifele are two highly talented forwards who struggled to hold up their end of the bargain in the defensive zone last season. With Rick Bowness, whose teams have notoriously been very stingy, now behind the bench in Winnipeg, some of the Jets’ top offensive stars could begin to develop a conscience in their own zone — and, after last year, the team badly needs them to.
KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES
Additions
Sam Gagner, F
David Rittich, G
Kyle Capobianco, D
Kevin Stenlund, F
Departures
Paul Stastny, F (CAR)
Eric Comrie, G (BUF)
Evgeny Svechnikov, F (SJ)
Zach Sanford, F (NSH)
Nathan Beaulieu, D (ANA)
OFFENSE
The Jets have a ton of talented offensive players, even with veteran utility center Paul Stastny leaving for the Carolina Hurricanes over the summer. Kyle Connor is a 50-goal threat, Nikolaj Ehlers is an outstanding two-way winger, Pierre-Luc Dubois is a quality top-six center, and both Wheeler and Scheifele remain dangerous players inside their opponents’ blue line.
Noted concerns about their stars’ defensive contributions notwithstanding, the Jets also have to worry a little about what the future holds for some of their top forwards. Connor is locked up at a reasonable dollar figure for the next four years and Ehlers is signed for three, but Dubois reportedly intends upon testing unrestricted free agency in 2024 and signed a one-year contract reflecting that belief this summer. Even if he doesn’t have the same offensive upside as Patrik Laine, Dubois is a quality center who would be coveted by almost every team in the league.
Like Dubois, Scheifele and Wheeler are both set to become unrestricted free agents in two seasons. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see Wheeler walk, but the Jets appear to be at somewhat of a crossroads with Scheifele. The 29-year-old center has taken big steps back in his own end and will be under a ton of pressure to lift the Jets back to relevance in 2022-23. If he can live up to that challenge, he might be able to sign a contract extension that lets him retire as a Jet. If not … he might be out the door.
DEFENSE
The Jets have struggled to find a defensive cornerstone since Dustin Byfuglien’s abrupt departure back in 2019. Even with Josh Morrissey having a nice bounce-back year in 2021-22, the Jets remained a largely incomplete team on the back-end last season and enter this coming season having made minimal changes to that group.
Morrissey, Neal Pionk, Nate Schmidt, and Brenden Dillon should form the Jets’ top-four group on defense in 2022-23, with Dylan DeMelo on the bubble and Ville Heinola pushing to make it into that conversation. There’s no No. 1 guy there, but perhaps Bowness can help one of those players turn into a capable facsimile. Still, the fact remains that Pionk is the only guy out of that group who has ever surpassed 40 points, and he’s done it once (with 45 in 2019-20).
The Jets haven’t spent a first-round pick on a defenseman since taking Heinola with the No. 20 selection in 2019. There isn’t exactly anyone banging down the door to make an impression in Winnipeg. Cheveldayoff’s best bet to improve his defense might be to move Dubois for an upgrade, especially if that situation becomes untenable.
GOALTENDING
Connor Hellebuyck is a supremely talented goaltender with a Vezina Trophy win under his belt. As mentioned, he remained respectable even as the Jets struggled to find their footing in 2021-22. He’s capable of patching up a lot of holes behind a flawed defensive group. If the Jets are able to work out some of the glaring kinks in their two-way play this year, Hellebuyck could elevate them from being mediocre back to a legitimate contender to win a round or two in the Western Conference.
Still, like with many Jets players, Hellebuyck’s long-term future is in question. He’s 29 and has only two seasons left on his current bargain contract, which pays him $6.167 million (on average) per year. By 2024, how many members of the Jets’ existing top-six forward group will still be with the team? Will Cheveldayoff even still be around? It’s entirely possible the Jets could be about to embark upon a retool or rebuild by the time Hellebuyck needs a new deal. If that’s the case, it might be in the team’s best interests to consider moving him for a haul sometime before then.
Beyond Hellebuyck, the Jets don’t have much. David Rittich has a lot to prove after underwhelming stops in Toronto and Nashville, while Mikhail Berdin and Arvid Holm don’t exactly look like “goalie of the future” candidates at this point. If Hellebuyck ends up moving on, the Jets will have to scour the hockey world for a worthy successor.
COACHING
We’ve already mentioned the Winnipeg Jets’ new head coach quite a bit in this preview, and now he gets a whole section all to himself. What’s old is new again for Rick Bowness, who returns to Winnipeg to replace interim bench boss Dave Lowry after having started his NHL coaching career with the original iteration of the club way back in 1984.
The 67-year-old Bowness has been around the block and then some in the NHL, holding jobs with the Jets, Boston Bruins, Ottawa Senators, New York Islanders, Phoenix Coyotes, Vancouver Canucks, Tampa Bay Lightning, and (most recently) the Dallas Stars. He reached the Stanley Cup Final as head coach of the Stars in 2020.
Bowness succeeded in Dallas as a mid-season replacement for Jim Montgomery in 2019-20, helping defensemen Miro Heiskanen and John Klingberg reach new levels in the playoffs (and also benefiting from otherworldly performances from Joe Pavelski and Anton Khudobin along the way). He reportedly wasn’t the Jets’ first choice this summer — they badly wanted Barry Trotz — but he’ll have to make do as the Jets seek a quick rebound in 2022-23.
ROOKIES
It’s time for Cole Perfetti to shine in Winnipeg. The 20-year-old forward has spent much of the past two seasons torching the American Hockey League as a member of the Manitoba Moose. He received his first taste of NHL action in 2021-22, scoring two goals and seven points in 18 games.
Now, Perfetti is a strong candidate to begin the season with the Jets. The 2020 No. 10 pick could quickly make it a whole lot easier for Cheveldayoff to explore trade options for Dubois. He’s that promising.
The Jets don’t have many other players banging down the door beyond Perfetti, but there’s a good chance we’ll see a lot more of Heinola in Winnipeg this year. The 5’11” lefty has enjoyed small cups of coffee in the NHL since being selected by the Jets in 2019, but there’s a clear opening on the left side with Logan Stanley not doing much to stand out (beyond being 6’7″) in his two seasons with the big club. It wouldn’t be a huge surprise to see Heinola become a full-time Jet by Christmas.
BURNING QUESTIONS
1. Can Adam Lowry grow into his contract? The 29-year-old center is being paid $3.25 million for the next four seasons, but he’s coming off a year where he scored just 21 points in 79 games. There’s something to be said for having a defensive conscience and providing intangibles, but it’d do a lot for the Jets’ playoff hopes if Lowry managed to crack the 30-point plateau for the first time in his career.
2. What role will Sam Gagner fill? We’ve seen Gagner turn into a jack-of-all-trades player over his last few seasons, going from a pure power-play specialist in Columbus to more of a shutdown center in Detroit. He’s also been able provide a fair amount of offense in many of his stops along the way. Can he come close to replicating Stastny’s impact in Winnipeg?
3. Can Nikolaj Ehlers go from star to superstar? Ehlers is excellent in most facets of the game. His raw offensive output hasn’t been quite as impressive because of the pandemic-shortened seasons, but he’s a strong candidate to set multiple new career-high marks this year. Ehlers scored 64 points way back in 2016-17 but has never equaled that mark since. What are the odds he reaches 80 this year?
PREDICTION
The Central Division is really tough, but we’ll say the Jets manage to improve a little bit this year. Even five extra wins would likely get them back to the playoffs.
At this point, it looks like the Jets will have to catch either the Stars or Predators to return to the post-season. Nashville made some improvements this summer, adding Nino Niederreiter and Ryan McDonagh; beyond swapping John Klingberg for Mason Marchment, the Stars largely remained the same (and they still don’t have Jason Robertson under contract). Bowness might end up needing to displace his old team to guide his new one to the dance.
Just for fun, we’ll say the Jets get there. But, as a likely wild-card team, they’ll be in tough to topple Colorado, Calgary, Edmonton, or St. Louis to go much further.
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