2023 World Junior Championship Preview: Team USA
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The Americans looked to have the team of destiny in Edmonton last summer.
They had a perfect 4-0-0-0 record, with a goal differential of +18. Sweden? No match. The rest? Easy peasy. USA’s dominance was clear throughout, and it was all about ticking boxes in the playoff round.
And then they lost to Czechia in the quarterfinal – just a few days after the Czechs had a heartbreaking loss to Latvia, of all teams.
It was baffling, really, but showed why we love this tournament. Nothing comes easy when elimination is on the line, and smaller programs will do whatever it takes to make a mess of the so-called heavyweights. So, now, the 2021 champions are looking to avenge their loss and take control in Eastern Canada.
It seems like the United States typically play better on Canadian ice. If there’s any team they want to beat, it’s their friendly neighbors up north. And now that we’re expecting much busier buildings in Moncton and Halifax, it’s their time to shine.
Here’s a breakdown of USA’s roster, and what to expect heading into the tournament:
Goaltending
For the second year, goaltending is a point of concern for the Americans. Kaidan Mbereko returns have playing four games during the summer, and his stats were pretty solid. But his performance in the quarterfinal game lacked the substance needed to beat Czechia and USA ultimately lost. He’s having a decent season with Colorado College and should resume the starting role again this year. He’s an undersized goaltender, but he competes well, has a quick glove hand and has the motivation of a potential NHL draft selection on the table. He’s one of the more experienced goaltenders in this tournament, but can he win when it matters most?
Andrew Oke also returns after posting an 11-save shutout over Austria in August. The Saginaw Spirit goaltender has worked with Tristan Lennox to become one of the more successful goaltending duos in the OHL with Saginaw, even if his stats outside the win column aren’t great. He’s an 18-year-old with decent size and the potential to return next year, so we’ll see how USA handles him.
The most interesting name of the three, though, is 2023 draft prospect Trey Augustine. He looks destined to be the team’s starting goalie the next few year, and probably deserves a few games in Moncton after posting a perfect record with the U-18 team this year. He’s having one of the best seasons from a USNTDP goalie since Spencer Knight, but he’s also the youngest goalie on the team at 17. This will be more of a learning experience for him.
While it seems like it’s Mbereko’s crease to lose, this still feels like the weakest position for the Americans. None of the three seem to be a true No. 1 on this team, just like Canada. That can be intriguing, though, with three goaltenders with something to prove. They just need stability, and they’ll have a few games to figure things out.
Defensemen
Among the tournament’s top powers, USA’s blueline appears to be the strongest. It starts with Luke Hughes, who’s set to complete the Hughes’ WJC trilogy with his second tournament appearance. He finished August with six points in five games, playing the quarterfinal game injured after blocking a shot early. The 2021-22 season was one to remember, with a great World Championship showing and one of the best NCAA seasons of anyone, regardless of age. The New Jersey Devils prospect has followed it up with a similar near-point-per-game season at Michigan to become one of the NCAA’s top defensemen. Whether it be the power play, late-game situations or just overall top-pairing ice time against the tournament’s best players, Hughes will be one of the best players to watch, as expected. At 6-foot-2, he’s actually the biggest player on the blueline, too.
One of the biggest risers this year – and one most diehard prospect followers knew would happen – is Boston University’s Lane Hutson. Selected 62nd overall by the Montreal Canadiens in July, Hutson has 18 points in 16 games as a freshman, showing just how strong his offensive play from the blueline is. Hutson thrives when taking the puck down the ice and running a power play, two things he’ll have a shot to do often in USA’s top four.
After playing just one game at the summer tournament, Colorado Avalanche prospect Sean Behrens should play a big role this year. The University of Denver defenseman is a strong skater that never stops moving, and the ice he gives you can be deceiving. He’s got some offensive skills, but his ability to cut off angles and start plays from his own zone will be what makes him most effective. If the Americans need any other play-driving from the point, they’ll look to New Jersey Devils draft pick Seamus Casey. A second-round pick in 2022, Casey has 16 points in 20 games as a freshman at the University of Michigan, the same team as Hughes. He has put up a ton of points at every level because he isn’t afraid to keep the puck on his stick under pressure. That said, his smaller frame likely relegates him to a seventh defenseman role.
The Americans are bringing eight defensemen to the tournament, with Ryan Chesley (WSH), Jack Peart (MIN), Ryan Ufko (NSH) and Luke Mittelstadt (undrafted) making up the rest of the group. Mittelstadt spent some time on the top penalty kill unit with Casey, while Chesley stood out in camp. Peart is having a great season with St. Cloud State and should build upon a solid showing at the summer tournament. It could come down to Ufko and Casey for the seventh spot, which both are more than capable of handling.
Regardless of what combination they go with, USA’s blueline is an obvious strength. You’ve got offense, smart-decision making and decent speed. Put it altogether, and USA should give their goaltending the best support possible.
Forwards
Logan Cooley enters the tournament on one of the biggest heaters of anyone. In his last 10 NCAA games with the University of Minnesota, he had 17 points, giving him 25 in 19 games. His play with the U-18 and U-20 team last season made him one of the most dangerous players to wear the red, white and blue, and the Arizona Coyotes prospect is clearly playing with house money right now.
Cooley will likely be paired alongside Jimmy Snuggerud and Cutter Gauthier, who helped make a dominant line with the USNTDP. Like Cooley, Snuggerud has been on a dominant stretch with 15 points in his past 10 games with Minnesota, putting him in the fight for the NCAA scoring lead. He’s been showing off his scoring prowess this year, but he’s a creative playmaker and has the skating skills that’ll allow him to be effective in the NHL. Gauthier, taken fifth overall by Philadelphia, will be more of the goal-scorer on this line after scoring 10 times in 13 games. He didn’t make the summer tournament, but Gauthier was tremendous at the U-18s and will fit in nicely with some familiar friends.
Rutger McGroarty, a Winnipeg Jets prospect, is an important piece of Michigan’s attack in the NCAA with 19 points in 20 games, so having him healthy is paramount. At every level, he’s been a dangerous dual-threat scoring forward, and he was unstoppable with eight goals in six U-18 World Championship games in the spring.
Fellow Jets prospect Chaz Lucius was dealing with an injury in camp, so the Americans are being patient with him until he’s fully ready. He’s an exciting piece because he’s been a full-timer in the AHL with the Manitoba Moose, and playing relatively well, too. Lucius’ only other major international appearance saw him decimate goalies at the U-17 World Challenge in 2019. While he hasn’t exploded anywhere else, he’s already got significant experience against older competition. If he’s at 100 percent, he’ll be leaned on.
One of the biggest standouts during USA’s midweek scrimmage was Tampa Bay Lightning prospect Dylan Duke, who has had a fantastic sophomore campaign with the University of Michigan. Dangerous around the net, Duke plays a heavy game, hitting anyone he pleases while possessing a nice wrister. He’s more of a scorer than a feed-master, so he’s bound to put a few past goalies in Moncton.
Jackson Blake, a fourth-round pick by Carolina in 2019, wasn’t a lock to make this team, but his incredible start with North Dakota made it hard to leave him off. He has never represented USA internationally and wasn’t part of the program, but he continues to take his game up another level every month, it seems. The son of former NHLer Jason Blake will be a good secondary scoring option wherever they decide to place him.
In terms of notable depth options, Tyler Boucher likes to hit everything that moves, while Kenny Connors isn’t one to mess with, either. And then there’s Redmond Savage, a Detroit Red Wings prospect ready for a second go-around. An alternate captain, the Miami University forward is as good as they come in terms of bottom-six defensive centers, and he gives it his all every shift. He isn’t flashy, but his teammates love him.
The Americans don’t have as many high-end scorers as, say, Canada, but they’re going to be tough to play against, and the depth is quite notable.
NHL draft watch
After serving as an extra forward in Edmonton, expect Charlie Stramel to play a bigger role this time. Coach Pecknold liked what he saw out of Stramel in camp, especially as someone who’s physical and can make life miserable for his opponents. He’ll have to tone down his aggressiveness – he’s seventh in the NCAA in penalty minutes with 42 in just 18 games – but Pecknold said he already had a chat with him about that. Stramel has the build to transfer over to the NHL, but his draft projection ranges wildly depending on who you talk to after a quiet start to the college campaign.
It’ll be interesting to see how Gavin Brindley slots into the lineup. Projected to go late in the first round, Brindley is undersized, but he’s a ball of energy that forces mistakes and takes advantage of them. He’s got the speed, skill and tenacity you love to see from a smaller player and should be someone who can find opportunities in the NHL one day based on skill alone. I’d still project this to be more of a learning experience than anything for him this year, and that’s OK.
And then there’s Augustine, whose roster situation will be one to watch. History shows that the youngest goalie is typically the odd-man-out, but Augustine’s play this year should earn him at least one start along the way.
Projection
Like always, there are expectations that USA will battle for gold, and this year is no different. They’ve got a stout defense, good offensive depth and a returning goaltender. Winning Group B will ensure a slightly easier path to the final, so the Dec. 31 game against Finland will be vital. I think this team is capable of shutting down Canada and going for gold, but we saw last year how easy it is to fall apart when the stakes ramp up.