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Burnside: Which Eastern Conference teams are cooked?

Scott Burnside
Scott Burnside
Burnside: Which Eastern Conference teams are cooked?

By: Scott Burnside

The drawing of the Thanksgiving line.

It is an annual rite of passage during every normal regular National Hockey League season.

It’s that moment on the calendar, marked for a number of years now by a full slate of action on Black Friday, just to reinforce the import of the moment. A time for reflection and internal candor for NHL teams and their fans alike.

It’s the moment in the NHL season when owners, GMs, coaches and of course players, have to look in the mirror and ask: are we cooked?

Or is there hope? Are we just a little cooked? Or maybe just marinating?

We can’t profess to be in on every like conversation in the NHL but we can give you our take on those teams who are currently sitting outside the playoff bubble as of Thanksgiving Eve and how they fit into one of three cooking themed categories;

Truly Cooked, As In Burnt To A Crisp: Teams with no chance of making the playoffs and who must, in some cases, confront the possibility of massive overhaul of their organizations and maybe sooner than later.

Cooked Yes, But Not Burnt, Not Yet: Teams that have underachieved for a variety of reasons, whether it be injuries, COVID-19 or underachievement, but who still have at least an outside shot of reclaiming their season.

Just Marinating: Those teams who aren’t where we thought they’d be but who we feel will be all right by the time the dust clears in the spring.

So, here we go with our Eastern Conference cooked or not cooked list.

Bon appetite.

Truly Cooked, As In Burnt To A Crisp

Montreal Canadiens

What a mess. From the moment GM Marc Bergevin shocked the hockey world by drafting Logan Mailloux in the first round after Mailloux, who had admitted to a sex crime while playing in Sweden involving the distributing of lurid pictures without the victim’s consent, had asked not to be drafted, there has been a stench about the Habs. Karma my friends, Karma.

Bergevin is a lame duck GM without an extension and rumors already abound that he’s headed to Los Angeles when this lamentable season ends in Montreal. Dominique Ducharme, who took over for Claude Julien and had immediate success, has looked lost behind the bench as the adversity that includes the absence of Carey Price and Shea Weber among others has mounted.

A team that somehow made it to the Stanley Cup final for the first time since 1993 last summer is much closer to draft lottery than Stanley Cup with a miserable .300 winning percentage, just ahead of Ottawa and an Eastern Conference-worst -26 goal differential. They will need a strong vision approaching the trade deadline but, gee, hard to imagine such vision exists within the organization as it’s currently constructed.

Ottawa Senators

Sorry about the COVID outbreak, but we downgraded the Senators to the totally cooked category after watching them give up a hundred (okay, seven) goals against Colorado this week. Sure it’s been hard to tell exactly where the team is at but pretty sure it’s not where anyone thought they’d be at Thanksgiving. Maybe next year.

Buffalo Sabres

A recent 2-7-1 stretch has blunted early enthusiasm for the beleaguered Sabres and as a result we’ve downgraded them to wholly cooked. Sorry.

And look, most of us likely imagined things would be a whole lot more burnt at this point in the season. But as much as Don Granato has helped start this team down the right path post-Jack Eichel with more structured play, this is a lineup that isn’t nearly ready to contend and is still in need of critical pieces. This starts in goal, where the Sabres are 28th in goals-allowed per game.

Cooked Yes, But Not Burnt, Not Yet

Detroit Red Wings

Already you can sense that this is a team starting to understand what it could become. Rookies Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider are one-two in first-year scoring and the team’s defense has been better.

They can’t win on the road (hey, Tyler Bertuzzi, imagine if you actually played in all your team’s games?) but they are competitive most nights and the accountability factor is rising almost daily. The playoffs are too much to ask at this point but for them to play meaningful games post-Thanksgiving, which is what we’re going to see, is a significant moral victory.

New York Islanders

Call it recency bias, but we had the Isles in the ‘Just Marinating’ category until they limped into their first two home games of the season at sparkling new UBS Arena. And we can’t shake the feeling that something is broken with a team that is coming off two straight trips to the final four. GM Lou Lamoriello has failed to anticipate and/or correct problems on the back end and his veteran offense is of the popgun variety, ranking 31st in the league and the power play is tied for 30th.

And there’s now the stark reality that with mounting injuries and COVID-19 issues, they are dead last in the Metropolitan Division and eight points out of a playoff spot with six teams to climb over. Sure, if there’s a team that can get up off the mat it’s Barry Trotz’s Islanders. And they do have games in hand and Lamoriello has cap space to burn. But it definitely got late quickly for an Islanders team we had locked into a playoff spot at the start of the season.

Philadelphia Flyers

Again with the recency bias but watching Tampa Bay manhandle the Flyers this week reminds us of the thin line that separates cooked from marinating and the Flyers are on the wrong side of that as they try to cobble together offense in the absence of stud free agent defender Ryan Ellis and emotional fulcrum Kevin Hayes, both of whom are out long-term.

Goaltending has been solid for the most part – 10th in the league in goals-allowed per game after being 28th a season ago – but they are 27th in goals scored per game and 26th on the power play. That’s a recipe for becoming burnt to a crisp in a hurry.

Just Marinating

Boston Bruins

The Bruins are sort of meandering along just outside the playoff bubble, having played fewer games, along with the Islanders, than any other team in the conference as of Wednesday morning. Really good at home, just kind of meh on the road, this feels like a team just biding its time.

What will happen to Tuukka Rask? That may be the most critical decision facing this team in the coming weeks. It’s not entirely on the goaltending, but their defensive posture is slightly off with Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman sporting identical .908 save percentages as we pen this. Still, the Bs boast a Norris caliber defender – and presumptive U.S. Olympian in Charlie McAvoy – and a forward core that still has legitimate Cup designs. In short, not sure who they push out but we’re not betting against a Bruin playoff berth.

New Jersey Devils

You can see where GM Tom Fitzgerald is headed with this young Devils squad and it’s in a direction that may be defying skeptics. Getting Jack Hughes back will be key to the 8-5-3 Devils staying in the hunt in the crowded Metropolitan Division. And how about Dawson Mercer as a dark horse Calder Trophy candidate with 12 points in 16 games a tidy +8 rating?

They probably won’t sneak into the top eight, but they’re close. Closer than we thought they’d be. And for the record, we like the third jerseys. Nice job Marty.

Finally, of the eight teams currently residing in playoff spots Wednesday morning who is most vulnerable to being dislodged by the eight in our list?

Love what Columbus is doing but not sure this team has staying power. Pittsburgh? Getting Sidney Crosby back was huge but wherein Evgeni Malkin? And as impressive as the New York Rangers have been through Thanksgiving Eve with an 11-4-3 record, they’ve got to figure out their backup goaltending and a way to get Alexis Lafreniere more engaged to feel any sense of security.

Happy Thanksgiving all.

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