Daily NHL Betting Guide – 10/12/22
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2022-23 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Wednesday, October 12
Model’s Picks 💰
Columbus Blue Jackets (@ CAR) +252
After a 1-1 start to the season, the model thinks the market overreacted to the Elvis Merzlikns news. Daniil Tarasov will start for the Blue Jackets, in a brutal road matchup in Carolina. The line opened around -200 and has jumped out to -290 for the Hurricanes. As a result, the model sees value in the Blue Jackets and the drop-off from Merzlikins to Tarasov is likely being overstated. Tarasov has a .937 SV% in four career NHL appearances and stopped 31 of 33 shots against the Hurricanes in January.
- 0.5 Unit Bet: CBJ +252
Be Cautious ⚠️
Boston Bruins (@ WSH) +126
Despite the model liking the Bruins in Washington at +126, it doesn’t see that Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy, and Matt Grzelcyk are all absent from the lineup. I would avoid this one tonight and wait to see how the Bruins perform with their depleted lineup early on.
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