Daily NHL betting guide: December 29
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Model’s Picks
Recommended Bets
Buffalo Sabres (vs. New Jersey)
The Sabres are missing a decent number of players due to COVID-19, including Jeff Skinner and Dylan Cozens. But an infusion of youth should help offset any absences.
Two players they acquired in the Jack Eichel trade are expected to make their Sabres’ debuts tonight; Alex Tuch will play his first game of the season after being sidelined by shoulder surgery and Peyton Krebs was recalled after posting 14 points (4G / 10A) in 16 games with the Rochester Americans (AHL). Additionally, 2020 second-round pick, JJ Peterka will make his NHL debut after scoring 20 points (4G / 16A) in 23 AHL games.
Tonight is a big night for Sabres fans and their should be plenty of excitement in the building. This may not be the exact Sabres team that the model sees but it shouldn’t be any worse. It sees plenty of value on the Sabres as +125 home underdogs.
1 Unit Bet: BUF +125
Tyler Yaremchuk’s Picks
Game Bet
Philadelphia at Seattle Over 6.0 goals (-110)
Last night, we saw a lot of goals around the league with all three games smashing the Over.
Tonight, I think we could see that continue and I think the Seattle vs Philadelphia game is as good of a bet as there is on this slate. Martin Jones allowed 13 goals in his last three starts and the total has gone over in four of the Flyers’ last five games. On the other side, Philipp Grubauer has allowed at least three goals in seven straight appearances.
Prop Bet
Mika Zibenejad Over 0.5 assists at Florida (+115)
The Rangers are going up against Sergei Bobrovsky, who has allowed an average of three goals against over his last five starts, so I think they’ll be able to score.
Zibenejad only has 18 assists in 30 games this season, but he did pick up an apple in back-to-back games before the pause. The Rangers also have the sixth-best power play in the league and they’ll get to go up against a Panthers PK that is just average. I think Zibenejad can find the scoresheet tonight,