Daily NHL betting guide: January 10
Getting a little skin in the game can make watching NHL hockey even more exciting.
During the 2021-22 season, Daily Faceoff will help you become an improved bettor thanks to this betting model and our betting tools.
NHL MODEL PICKS
Each day we will look at each game, the Sportsbook Odds (via PointsBet), and the odds of each team winning based on the model created by Philip Bulsink. Based on those two numbers, we can quickly identify which teams we need to bet on, which teams to avoid and which lines to keep an eye on throughout the day.
You can quickly determine which teams are the best bets by following this simple table:
All “Recommended Bets” are 1 unit wagers.
I will also provide some analysis on the best bets and update this post throughout the day to point out big injury news, lineup changes, and backup goalies starting.
The number to keep an eye on is the “Diff.” which is the percentage difference between the model’s projected Win% and the projected Win% based on PointsBet odds. To find out how odds turn into percentages, use our Odds Calculator.
Model’s Picks
The Model is not recommending any bets tonight so here’s is a bonus prop pick!
Nathan MacKinnon to score a goal vs. SEA (+123)
MacKinnon has had an absolutely terrific season, being held pointless just once in 21 games. However, he’s inexplicably scored only five goals, leading to terrific odds on him doing so tonight (+123). From 2018-2021, MacKinnon shot 11.5 percent; he’s shooting just 5.3 percent this season. The positive regression has already started, scoring goals in each of his last two games. Since returning from Christmas break, MacKinnon has averaged 7.0 shots per game, giving him plenty of opportunities to find the back of the net on Monday.
The Avalanche are -398 favorites with an implied total of 4.5 goals. The chances of MacKinnon scoring one of those 4.5 goals seems pretty good.
1 Unit Bet: MacKinnon to score +123
Tyler Yaremchuk’s Picks
Game Pick
Rangers Money Line vs. LAK (-110)
Straight up, I don’t think this game should be a pick-em. The Rangers are 4-2 since coming out of the break and while the Kings are 3-2 themselves, I still think New York is the much better team here. If Jonathan Quick goes for the Kings, then I like this even more. He’s allowed 17 goals in his last five starts and he’ll be in tough tonight against a Rangers team that has scored four goals in three of its last four games.
Prop Pick
Nazem Kadri over 0.5 assists vs. SEA (-125)
The Avalanche are staggering -420 favorites against the Seattle Kraken tonight and while there obviously isn’t a lot of value in betting them to win straight up, I do like the value on this Kadri prop. He’s picked up assists in four of his last five games and has a total of 12 in his last 10 games. He’s been an apple machine this season and in a matchup like this, I love his chances of getting at least one tonight.