Dallas Stars’ success at the NHL Draft is turning them into a legit Stanley Cup contender

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Remember Martin Vagner? Ivan Vishnevskiy? How about Scott Glennie, the eighth overall pick in 2009? Or pre-Toronto Jack Campbell, the first goalie taken in 2011? Or maybe pre-Cup champion Valeri Nichushkin?

Those are just a few of Dallas’ first-round picks from the 21st century that didn’t work out. In fact, from 2000-2010, Steve Ott (848 games), Mark Fistric (325) and Matt Niskanen (949) are the only first-round picks by Dallas to break the 300-game barrier. They had a bit more success in the early 2010s but still had notable misses like 2014’s Julius Honka. The 2014 Draft was a complete disaster, with Honka (87 games played) being the only player out of the nine selected to ever play in the NHL.

So, no wonder the Stars were viewed as such a mediocre squad year after year. But that’s quickly changing.

Public prospect followers have begun giving the Stars props at the draft table annually for the past few years. It consistently seems like they’re making noise no matter what. You often don’t need a ton of prospects to hit it big to start striking gold, but when you get depth throughout, that can be a game-changer. And that’s exactly where the team is right now, humming along with the Central Division lead.

It’s been a weird few years for the Stars. They ground their way to the Cup final in 2020 before missing the playoffs in 2021. They were then knocked out of the first round last year despite an incredible performance by young goaltender Jake Oettinger.

But, hold on a sec. Oettinger was taken in 2017. So was Miro Heiskanen. So was Jason Robertson. Three of the team’s most important players were selected in the first 39 picks of the 2017 draft. One is an incredible defenseman. One is a future Vezina Trophy candidate. The third is battling Connor McDavid for the NHL scoring title. Holy bleeping bleep, Batman.

Dallas’ 2017 draft output will go down in history. And luckily for GM Jim Nill, it goes far deeper than that.

There are the outsiders they acquired through trade or free agency, such as Tyler Seguin, Joe Pavelski, Mason Marchment and Ryan Suter. But Robertson, Heiskanen, Oettinger, Esa Lindell, Radek Faska, Roope Hintz, Denis Gurianov and captain Jamie Benn make up most of the core, and they were all selected by the Stars. That’s a similar blueprint to success as Tampa Bay, who drafted Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point, Steven Stamkos, Alex Killorn, Victor Hedman and Andrei Vasilevskiy, with all of them being crucial members of the Lightning’s Cup runs in 2020 and 2021. Homegrown development matters.

Oettinger is already making a case as one of the NHL’s best goaltenders. If it weren’t for an early injury, he’d be near the top of the Vezina Trophy conversation. It helps to have a star defenseman like Heiskanen in front of him, who, nearly from the get-go, was playing top-pairing minutes for the Stars. He’s on pace for more than 60 points this year, which would be the best offensive output of his career at 23. With Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes and Adam Fox, it’s easy to get lost in the young defenseman hype. Still, Heiskanen deserves all the attention he gets.

And then there’s Robertson. After missing most of training camp, he has exploded with 19 goals (first) and 36 points (second) in just 23 games. He’s being chased by Kucherov, Leon Draisaitl, David Pastrnak and Erik Karlsson – quite elite company – and doing it while averaging just 17:42 a night, while most of Robertson’s counterparts are over the 20:00 mark.

Those are three cornerstone pieces from just one draft. And then there’s 2015, another one that’s proven fruitful. Gurianov, a first-rounder, has been hit or miss throughout his career, but he can put up around 30 points a year. Then there’s Hintz, who just signed an eight-year extension on Tuesday. He showed promising signs in his first two seasons before putting up 43 points in 41 games in 2021, and a career-high 37 goals and 72 points in 2021-22. He’s on pace for more than 80 points this year, so a long-term deal was a no-brainer.

And the talent is still coming. Ty Dellandrea, drafted 13th overall, has finally made it full-time with the club. Thomas Harley, taken 18th overall in 2019, could still be something. Mavrik Bourque was a slick pick at No. 30 in 2020. Wyatt Johnston and Logan Stankoven, among the many great picks in 2021, will be massive for the club moving forward. Lian Bichsel, taken 18th in 2022, should also be a difference-maker one day.

What’s remarkable about all the talent is the value they continue to find. Heiskanen was taken third overall in 2017. The rest of their notable drafted NHLers were taken outside the top 10, with Hintz and Robertson getting taken in the second. Just think about how important those two are, so that’s tremendous value.

The biggest downside of an influx of talent out of the draft are the cap implications. Hintz and Robertson will make more than $8 million, while Robertson will make $7.75 million until 2026. Oettinger will make $4 million until 2025, when, at that point, his value could skyrocket. Fortunately, that’s most of the team’s central core locked up for a few years, with perhaps Johnston needing the most significant raise once his entry-level contract expires in 2025. Nill has done an excellent job at getting team-friendly deals out of much of the lineup, though Seguin and Benn make more than $9.5 million each for the next few seasons.

Excellent drafting and development doesn’t matter if you can’t make the most of it. During the regular season, that shouldn’t be an issue. It’s about taking big strides in the playoffs, though, and that’s where the real test begins. The Flames outplayed Dallas for most of last year’s first-round series, but the Stars got big performances from its youth. Now, those same players are becoming true “Stars.”

It just shows you how vital strong drafting and developing can be.

Dallas Stars’ success at the NHL Draft is turning them into a legit Stanley Cup contender

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