10 fantasy hockey bounce-back candidates for the second half of 2023-24

Credit: Tage Thompson (© Timothy T. Ludwig-USA TODAY Sports)

We’re partway through week 13 of the fantasy hockey season. If you’re in a head-to-head league, you’re already past the halfway point given your playoffs likely start in Week 23. Even in season-long roto leagues that run 25 weeks, we’re halfway home.

The hour is getting late but not so late that you can’t redeem your team if it’s struggling. So what should you do? Some high-profile rebound candidates for the second half could be the key to salvation in more ways than one. Anyone on this list who doesn’t play for your team makes for a strong buy-low trade target. And if you do own any of these players and are ready to accept a lowball offer for them, read what I have to say first and consider standing pat.

Listed alphabetically, here are my favorite bounce-back candidates for the second half of the fantasy season.

Brent Burns, D, Carolina Hurricanes

Wait…a 38-year-old bounceback candidate? Sometimes the key to reversing your fortunes in fantasy is to see value where others don’t. Yes, Burns is one of the older players in the league, but he’s still an effective top-pairing defenseman who generates more than two shots per game. He’s also the PP1 quarterback on a Carolina team that has nudged Tony DeAngelo, who was leading them in power-play TOI per game, out of the picture. The Canes’ offense is heating up dramatically, Burns has been a point-per-game player in his past seven games, and he could easily score at a 60-point pace in the second half. The role and team remain fantasy-friendly despite his advanced age.

Dylan Cozens, C, Buffalo Sabres

Argh. The arrow seemed to be pointing steadily upward for the 2019 Draft’s No. 7 overall pick. Cozens looked like the classic “big guy who needed extra time to grow into his body,” just like a higher-profile teammate we’ll discuss later in this piece. Cozens exploded for 31 goals and 68 points as a third-year NHLer. It felt like he could, at worst, sustain that production. Instead, he has disappointed like his fellow Sabres, tracking for fewer than 20 goals and 50 points. But I can envision a second-half rebound. For one, his role hasn’t changed; Cozens remains Buffalo’s regular No. 2 center and No. 2 power-play center. His opportunities are the same as they were last year, and his shooting percentage is not even half last year’s mark of 14.6. Given he’s actually improved most of his individual chance-driving metrics at 5-on-5, the puck luck should recover. Cozens currently averages the highest shots and shot attempts per 60 of his career at 5-on-5, while his individual scoring chance and expected goals rates are in line with last year’s. Everything under the hood indicates he’s the same guy who broke out last year.

Elias Lindholm, C, Calgary Flames

Set aside the fact Lindholm is tracking for his worst full-season numbers since 2017-18, the year he joined the Flames. Don’t even focus on his respectable 22-42-64 line of last season. Instead, fixate on his 42-goal, 82-point output two seasons ago, when he played between Johnny Gaudreau and Matthew Tkachuk. Lindholm can put up star-caliber fantasy numbers when he lines up with other stars. He’s a popular real-life trade candidate as a pending 2024 UFA. If Lindholm lands somewhere like Colorado or Boston? He could be a league winner for your fantasy stretch run and playoffs.

Jake Oettinger, G, Dallas Stars

Oettinger is close to returning from the lower-body injury he suffered a few weeks back. Before going down, ‘Otter’ had the worst numbers of his young NHL career, posting a .901 save percentage after sitting between .911 and .919 in his first three years. He’s too talented to stay ordinary, and it’s possible the rest does him some good. The big, intelligent, athletic Oettinger plays on a great team and is as capable as any goalie of being the top player at his position in the second half of the season. Buy low.

Alex Ovechkin, LW, Washington Capitals

Wait, what? Isn’t Ovechkin genuinely in decline, producing shots and scoring chances at the worst rates of his career, showing signs of major skill erosion in his age-38 season? Yes, actually. I wrote about it recently. But now it’s time to weaponize that narrative and buy him at his lowest-ever acquisition cost in fantasy. Ovechkin may never be an elite player again, but he also has been unlucky with his shooting percentage and has shown signs of life with three goals, eight points, 15 hits and 39 shots in his past 10 games. That’s not vintage Ovi, but it’s much better than the droppable commodity he’s been most of this season. Extrapolate that production over an 82-game schedule and you’d get 25 goals, 66 points, 123 hits, and 320 shots. A declining Ovi could maintain that level in the second half and give you a nice depth boost in leagues that count hits and shots. See if you can get him for cheap; I did in my league a month ago and I’m already reaping the rewards.

Juuse Saros, G, Nashville Predators

Saros hasn’t been awful this season. He owns a winning record with a pair of shutouts. He ranks in the top third of the league in goals saved above average. But a 3.01 goals-against average and .901 save percentage are way below his standard. He’s been an exceptional fantasy goalie for pretty much his entire run as Nashville’s starter. This season’s numbers are mostly weighed down by the dreaded Blowup Game. Saros has allowed five or more goals six times so far with the season less than half over. He allowed that many seven times all of last season. Saros tends to heat up as the season goes; he owns a .905 career SV% in October, a .901 in November, and every other month he sits between .911 and .935. Bet on him to iron out his consistency and return to being an elite rate-stat category star for the balance of the fantasy campaign.

Tim Stutzle, C, Ottawa Senators

Stutzle is averaging a point per game, so he hasn’t been a disaster, but most of us expected a 100-point explosion from the dynamic German in 2023-24. He has just seven goals this season, scoring on only 7.1 percent of his shots. A player of his sublime skill level almost never converts at a rate that low. Case in point, he scored on 17.1 percent of his shots last season. As the Senators adjust to life under “new” coach Jacques Martin, I expect Stutzle to find his footing, just as he did during a bonkers second half last season, when he went off for 27 goals and 56 points across 46 games from Jan. 1 onward. The sample size is big enough this season that you might be able to pry him away at “only” a star price when he could give you superstar numbers going forward.

Tage Thompson, C, Buffalo Sabres

Wasn’t 2023-24 supposed to push the big fella into the 50-goal, 100-point stratosphere? He was right there last season. The one knock on Thompson during his breakout was that his towering frame tended to get nicked up. He played in 78 games last season but had multiple close calls along the way. He hasn’t been as lucky this time around, missing 10 games already in the first half. When Thompson has been healthy, he hasn’t established a rhythm yet. The good news: he’s actually averaging the most 5-on-5 shots per game of his career. The bad news: the scoring chances, high-danger chances, expected goals – all the numbers indicative of shot quality – are down. If Thompson can do a better job getting to high-danger areas in the second half, he’s capable of the kind of epic run that carries a team to a fantasy championship. If someone is selling, he’s one of the better bets to make, even if he’ll continue carrying that injury risk year-round. The buy-low window is slamming shut, though: he has five goals and nine points in his past six games.

Matthew Tkachuk, RW, Florida Panthers

It’s easy to look at Tkachuk’s shockingly bad season line and wonder if he’s still affected by the broken sternum he suffered in the 2023 Stanley Cup Final. But let’s think rationally. He hasn’t missed a game in 2023-24. He wouldn’t be playing if he wasn’t medically cleared to do so. His ice time is down about a minute and a half per game this season, suggesting the Panthers have tried to ease his workload in hopes of keeping him fresh for the postseason. His individual offensive play-driving metrics are also down from last season. So it’s true that he isn’t playing like the 100-point monster of the previous couple seasons. But he’s was also on pace for the lowest shooting percentage ever recorded by a forward with 200-plus shots in a season before scoring Thursday night. He simply can’t be this much of a ghost in fantasy going forward. Surely he at least can be a top-50 player in the second half, even if he can’t return to last year’s peak. Bet on the 26-year-old’s immense talent.

Trevor Zegras, C, Anaheim Ducks

If you’re noticing a theme on this list, it’s that I’m not necessarily predicting each of these stars to return to peak levels but that many are underachieving so severely that even a partial rebound will make them helpful in fantasy. Zegras has been positively lost this season. Two goals in 17 games? What on Earth? His scoring chance generation metrics look more or less the same as those of his previous seasons. He’s averaging his most high-danger chances of his career. The pucks just aren’t going in and, worse yet, his assist totals are way down because his teammates aren’t finishing, either, and that’s less in his control. Still, he’s 22, he’s a magician with the puck, he still plays on line 1 and PP1, and it’s pretty much impossible to be as bad as he’s been across his first 17 games in this injury-shortened season. He’s rostered in less than half of Yahoo leagues now. He’s practically free to acquire in many league formats and could give you something like 10 goals and 35 points the rest of the way.

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