10 NHL players in danger of negative regression in 2024-25
Whether you like it or not, math and luck play a role in hockey. Sometimes players are scoring or stopping the puck at a higher rate than they usually do, and sometimes they’re doing it at a lower rate. Regardless, the bill always comes due, and those percentages swing the other way, unless the player is just that good.
Every year, we see some players produce at a rate that is a big outlier versus the rest of their career, and they hardly ever keep it up. So I thought it’d be a good idea to take a look at some players who overperformed their percentages in 2023-24 and will possibly see those results go the other way next year. It’s not a guarantee that every player on this list will get worse, but most of them probably will.
Before that, here are a few honorable mentions:
Dakota Joshua, Vancouver Canucks – Joshua had a breakout season with the Vancouver Canucks in 2023-24, collecting 18 goals and 32 points to also earn himself a big pay raise. He shot 21.4% in the process, which is a massive red flag when even Auston Matthews doesn’t score at that rate, but with a career 16.9% shooting percentage, it’s possible that a fair amount of that offense is still legit.
William Karlsson, Vegas Golden Knights – While 2023-24 wasn’t as unsustainable as his 43-goal effort in the Vegas Golden Knights‘ debut season, Karlsson did have a bit of an outlier year with 30 goals when he hasn’t hit 20 goals since 2019. Last year wasn’t too far off his career shooting percentage, but I wouldn’t expect him to score 30 again next year.
Sonny Milano, Washington Capitals – It might seem strange to see a player who only scored 15 goals mentioned on a list of players with unsustainable seasons, but Milano did so in just 49 games while averaging only 12:30 a night for the Washington Capitals. As a result, he shot a league-leading 30%, which definitely won’t happen next year.
Frank Vatrano, Anaheim Ducks – On paper, Vatrano seems like an obvious candidate to make the list after a 37-goal season despite never even hitting 25 beforehand. It certainly is a bit unsustainable, but he actually only shot 13.6% compared to a career average of 10.8%. He also had the most shots he’s ever had in a season, had the best ice time, and got plenty of opportunities to produce on a weak Anaheim Ducks squad. He’ll step back a bit, but as long as he’s getting minutes in Anaheim, seasons like this aren’t out of the question.
Laurent Brossoit, Chicago Blackhawks
2023-24 Stats: 15-5-2 record, .927% save percentage, 3 shutouts, +17.82 goals saved above expected
What’s the outlier?: Save percentage was .016% higher than career average
If there’s one thing that Brossoit has going for him with his outlier season in 2023-24, it’s that in a career that’s seen him alternate between save percentages above .915% and below .900, he managed to carry identical save percentages of .927% in 2022-23 and 2023-24. Now, he only played 34 games between those two seasons, so there’s still a big chance that regression is in play next season. When you also consider that not only will he be changing teams and require an adjustment for the system in front of him, but he’ll also be playing for a Chicago Blackhawks team that is nowhere near as good defensively as the Golden Knights and Winnipeg Jets, it’s hard to see him playing nearly as well in 2024-25.
Blake Coleman, Calgary Flames
2023-24 Stats: 30 goals, 24 assists, 54 points
What’s the outlier?: Shooting percentage was 5.3% higher than career average
Blake Coleman has always found himself in the 15-20 goal range throughout his career, but in 2023-24 with the Calgary Flames, the 32 year old hit the 30-goal mark for the first time. While it’s impressive that only three of those goals came on the power play, he still shot 15.7% on the year, well above his career average of 10.4%. Had he scored at his career shooting percentage on the 191 shots that he took last season, he would have only had 19, so expect him to return to that range again next season, barring a heavy regression the other way.
Nils Hoglander, Vancouver Canucks
2023-24 Stats: 24 goals, 12 assists, 36 points
What’s the outlier?: Shooting percentage was 7.5% higher than career average
It shouldn’t be a surprise that the team with the highest shooting percentage last season has a couple candidates for this list, with Joshua already being an honorable mention, but Hoglander is the more egregious outlier of the two. While Joshua had the higher shooting percentage, Hoglander saw a bigger increase from his career average, and he also had the benefit of playing in the Canucks’ top six, something that isn’t a guarantee next season. At just 23, it’s very possible that he just develops more at the NHL level next season and produces similar totals, but it would also need to come with more than the 120 shots that he took in 2023-24.
Zach Hyman, Edmonton Oilers
2023-24 Stats: 54 goals, 23 assists, 77 points
What’s the outlier?: Shooting percentage was 4.9% higher than career average
Hyman is one of two very obvious choices on this list based on the goals they put up this season. He’s definitely surprised a lot of the hockey world with how he continues to get better, especially with how well he’s worked with Connor McDavid since joining the Edmonton Oilers, but 54 goals is still an insane total that Hyman probably won’t reach again. Whether it will be due to just normal regression or his age (he is 32 after all), it seems more likely that he’ll settle into the 30-40 goal range that he was at in his first two years with the Oilers. There’s always the McDavid factor that could easily get Hyman to 50 again, but you could have said the same thing about Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ 104-point season in 2022-23, and he found himself at a more reasonable 67 points last season despite similar usage.
Anthony Mantha, Calgary Flames
2023-24 Stats: 23 goals, 21 assists, 44 points
What’s the outlier?: Shooting percentage was 7.9% higher than career average
While Mantha has certainly been inconsistent throughout his career, at his best he is usually good for 20+ goals in a season. What was more impressive about his 23-goal season is that he did it while averaging under 15 minutes a night, one of only two seasons in his career that he’s done so (excluding the 10 games he played in 2015-16), giving him the 18th-highest 5v5 goals for per 60 minutes among league regulars. Unfortunately, that came with a career-high shooting percentage of 20.5%, so while I think he’s a solid fit in Calgary, I wouldn’t expect similar stats this season unless he shoots more or gets more ice time (which is quite possible with this Flames roster).
Casey Mittelstadt, Colorado Avalanche
2023-24 Stats: 18 goals, 39 assists, 57 points
What’s the outlier?: On-ice shooting percentage was 2.8% higher than career average
Through the first five seasons of Mittelstadt’s career, it was looking like he was going to find himself in bust territory after he was selected eighth overall by the Buffalo Sabres in 2017. But, he started to break out in 2022-23 with 59 points, and then followed it up with 57 this year with the Sabres and the Colorado Avalanche. However, this season’s performance comes with the eighth-highest 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage in the league among players with at least 500 minutes, as his teams shot 11.98% when he was on the ice. If it’s any consolation, Mittelstadt’s 2022-23 season only had a 9.71% on-ice shooting percentage, so it’s at least proof that he can play at that level sustainably, but we’ll see how the regression affects his totals.
Sam Reinhart, Florida Panthers
2023-24 Stats: 57 goals, 37 assists, 94 points
What’s the outlier?: Shooting percentage was 8.9% higher than career average, 54.39% of goals came on power play
Reinhart probably had the most enjoyable season out of everyone last year. He got to be the second-best in the league at doing the most fun thing in hockey (scoring goals), played a big role in the Florida Panthers‘ Stanley Cup win, and then cashed in for a big pay day this summer. He certainly won’t care that it happened unsustainably, but it might hurt the Panthers a tiny bit if they are paying him $8.625 million in hopes that he’ll score 50-60 goals. Between having the second-highest shooting percentage among players with at least 500 minutes and the fact that more than half of his goals came on the power play, I wouldn’t expect the exact same results next season. But if he still scores 30-40 and continues to play elite-level defense, he’ll be more than worth the new contract.
David Rittich, Los Angeles Kings
2023-24 Stats: 13-6-3 record, .921% save percentage, 3 shutouts, +18.34 goals saved above expected
What’s the outlier?: Save percentage was .015% higher than career average
After beginning his career in Calgary, Rittich became a bit of a journeyman backup goalie before finally finding a home for more than one season again with the Los Angeles Kings. While Cam Talbot ran away with the starting gig to open the year, Rittich provided some stability when Talbot faltered, and even got the starts in their final two playoff games against the Oilers, resulting in the Kings choosing to keep him for next year over Talbot to back up Darcy Kuemper. While the Kings do provide a great defensive system that props up their goalies, I wouldn’t expect Rittich to have the same performance next season, considering that his previous career high for save percentage in a season was .911.
Anthony Stolarz, Toronto Maple Leafs
2023-24 Stats: 16-7-2 record, .925% save percentage, 2 shutouts, +21.7 goals saved above expected
What’s the outlier?: Save percentage was .010% higher than career average
Stolarz has only established a consistent backup role for himself in the past few seasons, but in 2023-24, he was arguably the best backup goaltender in the league, with the second-best save percentage among goalies with at least 20 games played and the seventh-best GSAx in the league. However, with a career .915 SV%, it’s tough to expect him to repeat that for next season. He did have an .899 SV% the year prior, so last season may have been the positive regression. But I’d expect him to come back down to Earth next season, especially behind a Toronto Maple Leafs team that will probably not be as good defensively as the Panthers were last year, even with their upgrades on the blueline.
Mats Zuccarello, Minnesota Wild
2023-24 Stats: 12 goals, 51 assists, 63 points
What’s the outlier?: 52.38% of points came on power play
While most players on this list find their unsustainability from shooting percentages, Zuccarello finds his way on to this list for how much of his offense came from the power play. He’s been an excellent player throughout his career, and usually he gets most of his offense at 5v5, but last season was the first time he relied a bit too much on the power play to get his offense. Playing with players like Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek and Matt Boldy on that Minnesota Wild power play will do that, and it might allow Zuccarello to do the same next season, but I’d still bet on those point totals going down a bit if he’s going to lean on the power play as much as he did last year.
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