10 NHL players who may benefit from positive regression in 2024-25
Whether you like it or not, math and luck play a role in hockey. Sometimes players are scoring or stopping the puck at a higher rate than they usually do, and sometimes they’re doing it at a lower rate. Regardless, the bill always comes due, and those percentages swing the other way, unless the player is just that good – or bad.
Every year, we see some players produce at a rate that is a big outlier versus the rest of their career, and they hardly ever keep it up. So I thought it’d be a good idea to take a look at some players who underperformed their percentages in 2023-24 and will possibly see those results go the other way next year. It’s not a guarantee that every player on this list will get better, but most of them probably will.
Before that, here are a few honorable mentions:
Sean Couturier, Philadelphia Flyers – Couturier has had a crazy few seasons, missing a season and a half of hockey before returning this season, playing Selke-calibre hockey, and being named the captain of the Philadelphia Flyers midway through the season, only to then be a healthy scratch a month after that. Only scoring 11 goals while shooting 5.1% of his career average is far from the worst thing to happen to him recently, but at least it means that he should have a better season in the goal department next season.
Anton Forsberg, Ottawa Senators/Vitek Vanecek, San Jose Sharks – I grouped Forsberg and Vanecek together because they both found themselves with a save percentage that was .015% lower than their career average, and both are somewhat unproven as consistent starters in the NHL. They’re also grouped together because, while they should be due for a bounce back season next year, they play for two teams with questionable defenses in the Ottawa Senators and San Jose Sharks, so there’s no guarantee that a rebound year will show up in their boxcar stats.
Barret Hayton, Utah Hockey Club – Hayton has struggled to live up to his 5th-overall draft status, and probably never will, but he’s at least shown flashes of it in his career, especially when he gets ice time with Clayton Keller and Nick Schmaltz. However, that trio shot just 6.82% at 5v5 when he wasn’t injured, resulting in just 3 goals and 10 points in 33 games. Even if he’s not at the level of a 5th-overall pick, he probably won’t be that bad next season if he stays healthy.
Taylor Raddysh, Washington Capitals – You would have thought that a player that put up 20 goals and 37 points on the 2022-23 Chicago Blackhawks would produce similarly after they got the franchise-altering talent that is Connor Bedard, and yet he only had 5 goals and 14 points in just five fewer games. He only played 54 5v5 minutes with Bedard, so that won’t help his case, but he also shot 6% lower than his career average. He’ll be playing on a much better Washington Capitals team next season, so that and seeing his shooting percentage return to normal should help out his scoring.
Connor Brown, Edmonton Oilers
2023-24 Stats: 4 goals, 8 assists, 12 points
What’s the outlier?: Shooting percentage was 7% lower than career average
Before last season, the fewest points Brown had produced in a season where he played more than 10 games was 28. That’s why he seemed like a solid fit with the Edmonton Oilers, likely to provide them some scoring depth, especially if he played alongside Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl. And yet, Brown finished with only 12 on the year, including just four assists after his first 47 games. It was an abysmal start that at least picked up some steam near the end of the season and in the playoffs. He is 30, has probably type-casted himself as a bottom six forward for this team next season, and he still hasn’t proven that he can return to his old form since his injury, all reasons why this may be the new norm for him. But, until we see this become a year-by-year trend, it’s still possible that we see him bounce back to his old self next season.
Andre Burakovsky, Seattle Kraken
2023-24 Stats: 7 goals, 9 assists, 16 points
What’s the outlier?: On-ice shooting percentage was 3.87% lower than career average
Burakovsky was one of the many Seattle Kraken players to have an excellent season in 2022-23, as even with injuries he put up 13 goals and 39 points in 49 games to contribute to their depth scoring threat. But also like a lot of the Kraken’s best offensive weapons, he followed that up with a down year in 2023-24, with just 7 goals and 16 points in, once again, 49 games. Based on his career scoring pace, he’d fall somewhere in the middle with a 49-game season with 27 points (a 46-point pace in 82 games), so I’d expect that we probably see something closer to that from Burakovsky in 2024-25.
Cole Caufield, Montreal Canadiens
2023-24 Stats: 28 goals, 37 assists, 65 points
What’s the outlier?: Shooting percentage was 2.8% lower than career average
It’s weird to say that a player who put up a career-high in goals, assists and points also had to deal with bad luck, but that was the case for Caufield last season. Part of the reason why he had a career year was because he finally got to play a full 82-game season for the Montreal Canadiens, but he only finished with two more goals than his 26-goal season in 2022-23 despite taking almost double the shots. The reality is that Caufield exists somewhere in the middle, not quite good enough for the 46-goal pace he scored at in 2022-23 (where he also shot 16.5%), but not bad enough to only get 28 goals like last season. If he stays healthy, expect him to hit 30 goals for the first time in his career, and maybe even 40.
Filip Gustavsson, Minnesota Wild
2023-24 Stats: 20-18-4 record, .899% save percentage, 3 shutouts, -7.51 goals saved above expected
What’s the outlier?: Save percentage was .013% lower than career average
In his first full season as an NHL goaltender in 2022-23, Gustavsson was one of the best. Only Linus Ullmark played as many games as Gustavsson and had a better save percentage than the Minnesota Wild goalie’s .931%, and at just 24, it looked like he was set to become an excellent starter in the NHL. But in 2023-24, it swung the other way. Only John Gibson, Joonas Korpisalo, Samuel Ersson and Alexandar Georgiev played as many games as Gustavsson and had a worse save percentage than his .899%. The truth is, like a few other players on this list so far, he’s probably somewhere in the middle. Last season was clearly the regression from his 2022-23 season, so don’t expect him to be either goalie next season, and find himself as more of a steady goalie in the .910-.915% range.
Tomas Hertl, Vegas Golden Knights
2023-24 Stats: 17 goals, 21 assists, 38 points
What’s the outlier?: On-ice shooting percentage was 2.03% lower than career average
Hertl had a forgettable start to his career with the Vegas Golden Knights after they acquired him from the Sharks at the trade deadline. He missed most of the regular season after the trade, returning to the lineup just six games prior to the playoffs, and while he had a solid 4 points in 6 games there, he managed only 1 goal in their seven-game series against the Dallas Stars. Overall, his 38 points in 54 games last season was okay, but Vegas probably expects more from him. The good news is that will probably happen next season. Not only should he see his on-ice shooting percentage increase from regression, but he’ll also have much better players to play with than he did with San Jose last season.
Darcy Kuemper, Los Angeles Kings
2023-24 Stats: 13-14-3 record, .890% save percentage, 1 shutout, -1.73 goals saved above expected
What’s the outlier?: Save percentage was .024% lower than career average
Kuemper is one of two players on this list to be traded this offseason, but he is the only one that was part of a cap dump trade. He was solid in his first season with the Capitals, but then he took a massive step back with an .890% save%, which put him in a six-way tie for the third worst save% among goalies with at least 30 games played, and after Charlie Lindgren had a standout season to secure the starting gig, the Capitals decided they were in a position to move on from his $5.25 million cap hit in exchange for Pierre-Luc Dubois’ $8.5 million cap hit. Now Kuemper is with the Los Angeles Kings, and he should hopefully see a return to form next season, both due to some regression his way and playing in a better defensive environment in LA. He is 34, so it’s not a guarantee, but I doubt he’ll be nearly as bad as he was last season.
Juuse Saros, Nashville Predators
2023-24 Stats: 35-24-5 record, .906% save percentage, 3 shutouts, 7.51 goals saved above expected
What’s the outlier?: Save percentage was .011% lower than career average
Saros certainly has the best stats out of any of the goalies on this list, so you can’t exactly say that he had a bad season. But considering that he’s one of the best goalies in the league, it was definitely a down year by his own standards. Prior to this season, his lowest save% in a season was .914% in 2019-20 (excluding his debut season in 2015-16 where he played just one game), so a .906% save percentage is certainly out of the ordinary for him, and he’s only 29, so it’s not like he’s at the point where he’s getting old. Beyond the math expecting him to regress, the Nashville Predators also improved this offseason, so it should bode well for a return to form for Saros. Goaltending is chaotic to predict, but Saros is one of the few consistent ones.
Mikhail Sergachev, Utah Hockey Club
2023-24 Stats: 2 goals, 17 assists, 19 points
What’s the outlier?: On-ice shooting percentage was 2.67% lower than career average
Sergachev is the other player to get dealt this offseason, and while some of it was due to the Tampa Bay Lightning trying to clear cap space in an attempt to keep their Stanley Cup window open, this was more of a traditional trade than a pure cap dump. That said, he’s a solid buy-low acquisition for the Utah Hockey Club, as multiple long-term injuries meant he only got into 34 games and then he only put up 19 points last season. A lot of the inconsistent play had to do with bad luck, as the team shot just 6.34% with him on the ice at 5v5. Changing teams obviously puts a bit of uncertainty into a regression like that, because it won’t be the same teammates regressing around him, but regardless, those totals should return to normal next season, even if he isn’t playing with a player as talented as Nikita Kucherov in Utah.
Tim Stutzle, Ottawa Senators
2023-24 Stats: 18 goals, 52 assists, 70 points
What’s the outlier?: Shooting percentage was 3.5% lower than career average
After slowly getting better and better throughout the first three seasons of his career, Stutzle took a bit of a step back in 2023-24, dropping from 90 to 70 points. Interestingly enough, he still set a career high in assists with 52, it’s the fact that he scored 21 fewer goals that really hurt his point totals. Part of that was due to a wrist injury that lingered throughout the year, but he also had a down year for his shooting percentage, largely as a regression from shooting 17.1% to score his 39 goals in 2022-23. He’ll probably continue to be a 50+ assist playmaker, but I’d imagine his goal scoring will probably even out at 30 goals barring any further development to his game.
Andrei Vasilevskiy, Tampa Bay Lightning
2023-24 Stats: 30-20-2 record, .900% save percentage, 2 shutouts, -1.24 goals saved above expected
What’s the outlier?: Save percentage was .019% lower than career average
Like Saros, Vasilevskiy is another goalie who is regarded as one of the best in the league, but struggled in 2023-24. Vasilevskiy’s is largely due to the fact that he had surgery right at the start of training camp, and then came into the season cold two months later. On top of that, the Lightning have taken a step back defensively, so he was thrown to the wolves for most of the season. Regardless, it resulted in the worst numbers of his career, and considering that he just turned 30, it’s probably not due to age. With the Lightning still not quite where they used to be, and probably worse, it’ll be interesting to see how much that affects Vasilevskiy next season, but he should still be much better than he was in 2023-24.
Tom Wilson, Washington Capitals
2023-24 Stats: 18 goals, 17 assists, 35 points
What’s the outlier?: On-ice shooting percentage was 3.62% lower than career average
Wilson’s output last season would actually be the career norm for him if you just looked at his stats through his first five seasons in the NHL. But ever since the 2018 playoff run that saw the Caps win the Stanley Cup, he’s turned around his career, and become a consistent top-six secondary scoring winger, generally producing 40-50 points when healthy. Last season was not the case despite playing 74 games, but that largely stems from a bit of a drop-off in his on-ice shooting percentage. That happened throughout most of the team, most notably with Alex Ovechkin’s scoring struggles early in the season and the fact that the Caps had just three players with more than 40 points, so with the team having upgraded their roster a bit this offseason, we should see a bit of a bounce back from Wilson in 2024-25.