10 Unrestricted Free Agents with a lot on the line in the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs

Credit: Patrick Kane (© Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports)

Think recency bias matters when it comes to contracts for unrestricted free agents? Just ask Nick Paul.

The burly checking center had delivered a piddly 29 goals across 227 games with the Ottawa Senators by winter 2022. But the Tampa Bay Lightning saw the potential. He moved well for a man his size. He was physical. He killed penalties. They bought low at the trade deadline, getting him for Mathieu Joseph and a fourth-round pick.

We all know what happened after that. Paul was an X-Factor for the Bolts in the 2022 postseason. He scored two goals in Tampa’s Game 7 win over the Toronto Maple Leafs. He was crucial on the penalty kill as Tampa crusaded to a third straight Stanley cup Final. He also happened to be a pending UFA at the time. The Lightning had found their new third-line center, and they rewarded Paul with a seven-year deal at a $3.15 million AAV after the season. He scored all that security because of what he did in the postseason.

It’s thus safe to say the pending UFAs competing in the 2023 playoffs have plenty on the line and that many can change their respective fates with their performances in the coming days and weeks.

Which UFAs have the most to gain or lose right now? Consider these players.

(Note the absence of some big names on the list. The likes of Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O’Reilly have already proven plenty of worth with their new teams and I thus think they have less on the line in the postseason. Same goes for Dmitry Orlov. Damon Severson is headed for a big pay day no matter what happens with the New Jersey Devils this post-season, too.)

Ian Barbashev, Vegas Golden Knights

Pos: LW/C
Age: 27
Current cap hit: $2.25 million

What he has to prove: That he’s a viable top-six NHL forward. He looked the part during his 26-goal breakout in 2021-22 but sagged with the entire St. Louis Bues team this season, eventually dealt straight up for prospect Zach Dean. Barbashev does many things pretty well, most notably as a playmaker, but isn’t elite at any particular skill and has not typically profiled as a great defensive forward. He managed to put up 16 points in 23 games post-deadline with Vegas, functioning more often than not in a first-line role, but he is currently toiling in the bottom six as Vegas battles the Winnipeg Jets in the first round.

Laurent Brossoit, Vegas Golden Knights

Pos: G
Age: 30
Current cap hit: $2.235 million

What he has to prove: That he can be part of Vegas’ long-term plans in net OR worthy of a platoon on another NHL team. Brossoit missed most of 2022-23 due to injury but, with Logan Thompson and Adin Hill hurt and Jonathan Quick struggling, Brossoit got his opportunity down the stretch and helped carry Vegas to a division title, going 5-0-0 with a .946 save percentage in April. Thompson is Vegas’ only NHL goalie signed through next season. Is it possible Brossoit and Thompson form next year’s tandem, then?

Tyler Bertuzzi, Boston Bruins

Pos: LW
Age: 28
Current cap hit: $4.75 million (partially retained by DET)

What he has to prove: That he’s worthy of top-six scorer money and not middle-six agitator money. Bertuzzi was a revelation in the shortened 2020-21 season, racking up 30 goals and 62 points in 68 games, but injuries reduced him to a shell of himself over the past two campaigns with the Detroit Red Wings. That said, after the Bruins acquired him, injuries eventually elevated him into a second-line role, and he has looked worthy of the assignment playing with Pavel Zacha and David Pastrnak. He has been Peak Bertuzzi in these playoffs so far, piling up six points and a whopping 26 penalty minutes in four games.

Michael Bunting, Toronto Maple Leafs

Pos: LW
Age: 27
Current cap hit: $950,000

What he has to prove: That he’s worth the headache. There’s a reason why our Frank Seravalli recently projected that Bunting would get the biggest deal on the market in terms of total dollars. He has demonstrated a unique blend of scoring and agitation, like a younger, more durable Bertuzzi. Bunting has delivered consecutive 23-goal seasons for Toronto while moving up and down its lineup. He’s also, of course, currently serving a three-game suspension for an illegal check to the head on the Tampa Bay Lightning’s Erik Cernak. If Bunting can’t stay on the right side of the line and can’t escape the officials’ bad books, will he be worth the hefty investment? Once he’s back in the Leafs lineup – assuming he’s back, rather – he’ll have to show that he can play with the composure and discipline required to win in the playoffs.

J.T. Compher, Colorado Avalanche

Pos: C
Age: 28
Current cap hit: $3.5 million

What he has to prove: That he’s a viable No. 2 center and deserves to be paid as such. Compher was largely up to the task of replacing Nazem Kadri during the regular season, amassing a career-best 52 points. Compher was also one of the better defensive forwards in the league this season. So does he really have much to prove? Yes and no. He has undoubtedly already proven himself valuable to the Avs, but a big postseason, complete with offensive numbers that pop, could price him out of Colorado and into a major long-term pay day at an AAV reflecting full-time No. 2 center duty.

Matt Dumba, Minnesota Wild

Pos: D
Age: 28
Current cap hit: $6 million

What he has to prove: That he deserves another shot as a top-four NHL defenseman. Dumba was essentially an own-rental for the Wild this season. With their buyout penalties for Ryan Suter and Zach Parise peaking at more than $14 million next season, there’s almost no chance Dumba is back, but they also couldn’t find a taker for him at the deadline. His game has fallen off that much. The offensive numbers have plummeted, and his tendency to gamble on big hits can get him caught out of position at times. Still, Dumba brings size, snarl and a big righthanded shot. If he comes up with some big moments in the postseason – aside from notorious ones such as injuring Joe Pavelski – he could inspire a team to chase him as a reclamation project on the open market.

Max Domi, Dallas Stars

Pos: LW/C
Age: 28
Current cap hit: $3 million

What he has to prove: That he’s a winner worthy of a multi-year commitment. The ship has sailed on Domi being a true star in the NHL. He had his best moments as a Montreal Canadien, but he hasn’t been able to endear himself to a team or coach long enough to earn their long-term investment. Domi missed the playoffs in five of his first six NHL seasons, and the team Domi has started his season with has missed the dance in seven of his eight NHL seasons; he has been traded as a rental the past two seasons. He has been fairly effective in a third-line role for Dallas. If the Stars go on a deep playoff run, might they reward him with a long-term pact? It’s tough to say considering the impressive forward prospects waiting in the wings to join the team at entry-level AAVs, from Logan Stankoven to Mavrik Bourque. Domi likes to mix it up physically but he has typically been quite the liability defensively in his career, and he doesn’t score quite enough to justify that.

Patrick Kane, New York Rangers

Pos: RW
Age: 34
Current cap hit: $10.5 million (partially retained by CHI and ARI)

What he has to prove: That he still has something in the tank, unlike his longtime teammate and fellow future Hall of Famer Jonathan Toews, who looks like a candidate to retire. There’s no sugarcoating it: Kane was not himself this year, limited by a nagging hip injury, and that included post-trade to the Blueshirts. But he’s had his moments early in Round 1 of the playoffs, fuelling the idea that the 2013 Conn Smythe Trophy winner was saving his best for the games that mattered. Kane will still obviously have a market for his services this summer, but if he delivers some magic as part of a long Rangers run, the price tag and term could keep in him star territory.

Joonas Korpisalo, Los Angeles Kings

Pos: G
Age: 28
Current cap hit: $1.3 million

What he has to prove: That he’s a starting-caliber NHL goalie when healthy. Last season was mess for Korpisalo, but everything made sense after it was revealed he needed hip surgery. The change year over year was remarkable. Among goalies with at least 500 minutes at 5-on-5, Korpisalo sat dead last a season ago, 69^th, and jumped to sixth out of 77 this season, inspiring the Kings to punt their franchise great goaltender Quick and trade for Korpisalo to roll with him as their new starter. He has run hot and cold so far in the postseason against the high-octane Oilers. If the Kings get through to Round 2, might they consider anointing Korpisalo their long-term No. 1 in net?

Antti Raanta, Carolina Hurricanes

Pos: G
Age: 33
Current cap hit: $2 million

What he has to prove: That his body can hold up long enough to make him a starting option. Raanta has the keys for the Canes so far in these playoffs, but he has almost never been able to withstand the rigors of a starter’s workload. He has eclipsed 33 games just once in his career. If another injury sidelines him this postseason, it could cost him a lot of money. If the Canes go deep with Raanta in the starter’s chair the entire time, it opens up far more possibilities for his next landing spot.

_____