2020 Projected Lineups: Minnesota Wild
In 2019-20, the @Minnesota Wild backed into a “playoff spot” by the NHL expanding the postseason to 12 teams from each Conference.
They were pretty quickly discarded by the @Vancouver Canucks and still have not won a playoff series since 2015. This offseason, Wild GM Bill Guerin did some house cleaning, trading @Eric Staal (to Buffalo), @Ryan Donato and @Devan Dubnyk (to San Jose). They also traded @Luke Kunin (plus a 4th) to the @Nashville Predators in exchange for @Nick Bonino and 2020 second and third-round picks. Their only big free-agent acquisition was signing @Cam Talbot to a three-year, $11.0M ($3.67M AAV) deal to replace Dubnyk. It was an eventful offseason turned over a lot of the roster but the Wild don’t look like a better team on paper.
The most exciting development for them is top prospect @Kirill Kaprizov coming over from the KHL. Kaprizov was a fifth-round pick in 2015 and has lit up the KHL in recent years. The 23-year-old should immediately be one of the most impactful players on this Minnesota team and should provide a level of excitement that is otherwise missing from this team right now.
As it stands today, Minnesota has roughly $2.7 million in cap space, so it looks like this is the roster that they will break camp with.
Projected Forward Lines
There aren’t many certainties when you look at this Wild roster but a few things we know for sure are that @Kevin Fiala, @Zach Parise and Kaprizov will be in the top-6 in some fashion. Moving Staal for @Marcus Johansson was a questionable decision, especially given the scarcity of centres on this roster. Johansson is capable of playing down the middle, but many teams have experimented with that in recent years and the results haven’t been great. Still, he comes into the season as their No.1 centre by default and the Wild will have to hope that their talented wingers can elevate his game. Johansson is unquestionably a pass-first centre, so it makes a lot of sense to pair him with Fiala, who has never met a shot he didn’t like. Fiala’s game continues to evolve and he has a chance to go well over 200 shots and potentially hit 30 goals for the first time in his career in 2021. With Kaprizov on the other side, the Wild could have one of the more underrated top lines in hockey. Kaprizov has led the KHL in goals each of the last two seasons and his goal:assist ratio has been nearly 1:1, which showcases his ability as a playmaker as well. He’s probably not going to come over and be a point-per-game player right away like @Artemi Panarin, but don’t be surprised if he has 25 goals and 35 assists (or that pace in a shortened season) like @Evgenii Dadonov did with the @Florida Panthers in 2018.
If that is their first line, it would have left Parise and @Mats Zuccarello to play with @Joel Eriksson Ek on the second line. Unfortunately, Minnesota is going to open the season without Zuccarello, who underwent surgery on his right arm in Norway last week and he has been ruled out indefinitely. That should leave the door open for @Jordan Greenway to land a top-6 role to open the campaign. No winger played more with Eriksson Ek at 5v5 last year than Greenway, so it should be a good fit. Greenway’s numbers were a lot better with Eriksson Ek as well and they should only improve when you add a shooter like Parise into the mix. This doesn’t have the look of a true second line but Greenway and Eriksson are both just 23-years-old and took major strides in 2020. If they continue to improve, this group could be tough to play against while also posting respectable offensive totals.
The third line will most likely feature a pair of newcomers. Bonino is a perfect fit as a third-line centre. Last year in Nashville, he centred arguably the most effective third-line in the NHL with @Craig Smith and @Rocco Grimaldi. In Minnesota, he should have @Nick Bjugstad, who they acquired from the @Pittsburgh Penguins, and Zuccarello or Greenway when Zuccarello is healthy. However, to open the season it should be Bjugstad and either @Nico Sturm or @Marcus Foligno. Bjugstad is a hometown boy and a former first-round pick but has struggled with injuries in recent years. When he’s at his best, he’s a massive (6-foot-6, 215 lbs.) power-forward who is a 20-goal, 20-assist threat. However, he’s been far from that in the last two seasons, combining for just 15 goals and 13 assists in 77 games. Whether it’s Sturm or Foligno on the left-side, both also possess good size and two-way savvy but Sturm has the more well-rounded offensive game that suits a third-line role, while Foligno is more a crasher and a fourth-liner.
Speaking of the fourth-line, @Victor Rask and @Ryan Hartman have both taken steps back in recent years but have enough offence in their game to make them one of the higher-scoring fourth lines in the league while also being defensively sound.
The one X-factor in the Wild organization is @Marco Rossi. The Wild just selected him No.9 overall in the NHL Draft after he set the OHL ablaze with 120 points (39G / 81A) in 56 games. Given the fact that the NHL season is expected to start a few weeks before the OHL commences their season, Rossi could open the year with the Wild, especially with Zuccarello out, and stick around longer if he impresses.
Projected Defensive Pairings
While there was a lot of movement up front, the Wild return the same blueline as 2020 and it’s a good one. They are led by @Ryan Suter and @Jared Spurgeon, who played over 916 5v5 TOI together a season ago (third-most in the NHL). Their second pair of @Jonas Brodin and @Mathew Dumba wasn’t far behind, spending 837.9 5v5 TOI together (sixth-most).
Last season 57 pairings played at least 400 TOI together and here’s how Minnesota’s top-4 stacked up to the rest of the league:
| per MoneyPuck.com | CF% | Goals % | GF/60 | GA/60 |
| D1: Suter-Spurgeon | 53.3 (12th) | 58.3% (12th) | 3.21 (6th) | 2.29 (t-29th) |
| D2: Brodin-Dumba | 50.0% (30th) | 51.5% (36th) | 2.43 (37th) | 2.29 (t-29th) |
It’s pretty evident that Suter-Spurgeon is an elite pair. Their GoalsFor/60 is among the best in the league, which shouldn’t come as a surprise considering Suter is 12th among defensemen in points (237) and Spurgeon is 14th in goals (56) over the last five seasons. Brodin hurts Dumba’s offensive numbers but it doesn’t take away the fact that he is one of the best goal-scoring defensemen in the NHL and a truly valuable fantasy commodity.
Defensively, they’re about the same, they sit mid-pack with 2.29 GA/60. However, both of those numbers are misleading and more a product of the poor goaltending the Wild had in 2020. When you look at Expected Goals Against/60, Brodin/Dumba is the third-best (1.90) and Suter/Spurgeon are eighth-best (2.05). This is truly an elite top-4 and some good goaltending in 2021 should lead to better results for the Wild.
Because of their quality, the third-pair does not get a lot of usage. @Carson Soucy and @Brad Hunt both averaged around 15:00 TOI a season ago and both bring completely different skill sets to the ice. Soucy is a big, strong shutdown defenseman, while Hunt is undersized and offence is his strong suit. Hunt has a massive point shot and has accumulated huge point totals in the AHL. Last year was a career-best season for the 32-year-old, who should see PP2 usage in 2021, making him a DFS dart throw at times.
Advanced Stats via MoneyPuck.com and HockeyReference.com
Salary Cap Figures via PuckPedia.com