2022-23 NHL team preview: New York Islanders
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LAST SEASON
In a Metropolitan Division with plenty of uncertainty, the one team in which many prognosticators seemed to be confident was the New York Islanders. Fresh off back to back final-four losses to the Tampa Bay Lightning, the Isles seemed like a safe bet for another season of tidy defense and opportunistic scoring en route to another playoff appearance.
Unfortunately, there was one big obstacle in the team’s way: a daunting 13-game road trip to start the season, due to the time needed to finish their new arena. That span of over a month didn’t treat the team too kindly, starting just 5-6-2, but all things considered, it felt like they’d weathered the storm. Unfortunately, going home didn’t help, as they lost their first seven games at UBS Arena, and by the time they won their first, the team was 7-11-5 and in the basement of the conference.
They did recover afterwards, going just a bit over .500 the rest of the way with a 30-24-5 record, but the start they had buried them deep in a hole they couldn’t get out of, especially with the large gap that the Eastern conference’s eight playoff teams had on the non-playoff teams. Due to makeup games because of COVID-19 postponements, they had to play 50 games in 99 days to close out the season. They finished the year as the best of the rest in ninth, but they were still 16 points behind the eighth-place Washington Capitals.
General manager Lou Lamoriello decided that the team wasn’t the problem, with its lone offseason addition of note being the trade for Alexander Romanov, and instead fired head coach Barry Trotz, replacing him with Lane Lambert, one of Trotz’s assistants. Whether that will make up the 16-point difference and get the team back in the playoffs, it’s hard to see, but this team is known for surprising its critics.
KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES
Additions
Alexander Romanov, D
Dennis Cholowski, D
Hudson Fasching, D
Departures
Austin Czarnik, C (Det)
Zdeno Chara, D (UFA)
Andy Greene, D (UFA)
OFFENSE
The Islanders have rarely been a high-octane team in recent years, averaging just 2.74 goals per game during their three-year playoff streak from 2018-2021. Surprisingly, they slightly improved in that regard last season, scoring 2.79 while tied for 22nd in the league. They also ranked 25th in 5-on-5 shot attempts for per 60 minutes with 50.84 and tied for 17th in 5-on-5 expected goals for per 60 minutes with 2.41, so the actual goal scoring is about on par with the underlying numbers, although still not ideal. Their lone bright spot offensively was their power play, which clicked at a 22.1 percent rate, good for 12th.
As far as player production, they didn’t have a lot going for them last season, and it’s going to be the exact same group returning this year. Brock Nelson almost hit 40 goals, and probably would have if he didn’t miss 10 games, and Mathew Barzal is usually the spark of the Isles’ offense, but he had a bit of a down year with just 59 points in 73 games, so he should bounce back. He has generally been perceived to be “held back” by Trotz’s defense-first system, but that might not change with Trotz acolyte Lambert taking over.
Captain Anders Lee might be another bounceback candidate, further removed from major knee surgery and having finished last season strongly. Aside from that, it’s a forward core with a group of players who can maybe get into the 40s points-wise. You might see a jump in production from their younger players like Anthony Beauvillier or Oliver Wahlstrom, but it’s hard to see them doing so to the point where this offense becomes an actual threat.
It doesn’t help that, as good as their blueline is, it’s made of strong defensive options that you won’t get a lot of production from, even their top pair of Ryan Pulock and Adam Pelech. The lone exception is Noah Dobson, who had a breakout season with 51 points and really settled into that power play quarterback role with 22 points there. The Isles added Romanov in the offseason, but he also isn’t known for scoring, although at 22 a breakout season isn’t out of the question.
DEFENSE
As subpar as this team is at creating goals, they’ve consistently made up for it by preventing goals in the post-John Tavares era, and they sort of did that last season, as they were tied for seventh in the league with a 2.82 goals against per game. However, this wasn’t due to the team’s usual defensive prowess. They were 24th in the league in 5-on-5 shot attempts per 60 minutes against with 58.95, and 25th in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 minutes with 2.66, a steep drop from their usual stinginess with scoring chances.
Injuries don’t help, with just Zach Parise making it into all 82 games, but the team was still quite overwhelmed defensively. It might improve on the back end with two old defenders in Zdeno Chara and Andy Greene currently not on the roster (although you never know, Lou still has time to bring Greene back), especially when that’s replaced with Romanov and a (hopefully) full season from Pulock, but without any massive improvements, it’s hard to get hopeful. Still, Pulock, Pelech, and Scott Mayfield are all reliable defensive options, while Romanov and Dobson both have their issues with inexperience but are still solid, so it makes up for a top five that can be sturdy, with Robin Salo or Sebastian Aho rounding out that group.
The bigger issue is the forward group, who seem to be a bit more like Jekyll and Hyde. When given a good system to work with, they can make the most of it and support that strong blueline, making scoring chances almost impossible. But as was the case last season, when that goes to chaos, you see that they don’t have too many options that can still excel outside of a full-team effort. When their fourth line of Matt Martin, Casey Cizikas and Cal Clutterbuck is the one that leads the team in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 minutes, and the rest are drowning in their minutes, it’s not a good sign for this group that made zero changes in the offseason.
GOALTENDING
What helped mask the Islanders’ defensive struggles a lot last season was some strong goaltending. The Islanders had the third-best save percentage at .9255, and that comes from a duo of Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov, a one-two punch in net that very few teams can match.
Varlamov has proven to be a steady replacement for Robin Lehner after he left in 2019, although with a .911 save percentage and -2.55 goals saved above expected last season, Varlamov’s play is declining a bit, and he will likely fall into the backup role this year. That’s OK, though, because the Islanders still have Sorokin, who broke out in a big way in 2021-22. He finished the year with a .925 SV% and also led the league in goals saved above expected with 21.85. He didn’t get quite as much recognition for the Vezina as he should have, as he was just sixth with five votes, but another year like this and that shouldn’t be a problem.
COACHING
This is where the Islanders made their biggest change of the offseason, as Lamoriello fired the coach who won a Jack Adams Award with them in Trotz. They replaced him with Lambert, one of his longtime assistant coaches who has worked by his side since 2011 with the Nashville Predators, Washington Capitals, and the Islanders. Lambert has some head coaching experience in the WHL with the Prince George Cougars and the AHL with the Milwaukee Admirals but none in the NHL.
This move could either be a really smart one or a really desperate one for Lamoriello. Now, without any NHL head coaching experience, Lambert is a bit of wild card in that we don’t quite know what he brings to the table, but you have to think it’s not that much of a difference from Trotz if he worked with him for so long. So, this could mean that the team had lost the room with Trotz and Lambert gives them a new voice, but with a familiar face and plenty of knowledge about Trotz’s systems to bring the team back to its recently successful ways. Or, it could be possible that this is Lamoriello using Trotz as a scapegoat for last season, which seems to be the more likely scenario.
ROOKIES
The unfortunate result of Lamoriello making deals to keep adding veterans to this team to keep it competitive the past few seasons is that they have a depleted prospect pool. Trading their 13th overall pick for Romanov certainly doesn’t help there, leaving them with only a couple players who could make the team out of camp, and that’s assuming that they’ll get the chance with the vets in front of them.
The intriguing one is William Dufour, who’s coming off a 56-goal, 116-point season in just 66 games for the Saint John Sea Dogs in the QMJHL and won MVP of the QMJHL and the Memorial Cup. He’s a big winger with a good shot, although the size might actually be a red flag considering that it was a likely advantage over a league consisting of mostly teenagers and young adults, and it also hampers his skating ability, which is an essential skill in the NHL these days. It’s unlikely that all his skills translate to the NHL, but he’d certainly be worth a look at some point this season, especially if the team is lacking offense.
Aatu Raty is another interesting option, as his hands and vision could make some noise in the NHL if he matures a bit more. But even then, it’s unlikely we see that happen this season, as the team will probably opt for veteran options throughout the season, even when they need replacements with injury.
BURNING QUESTIONS
1. Was 2021-22 an off year or a sign of things to come? Lamoriello seems confident in this team bouncing back to the caliber of the two seasons prior to last, considering the minimal moves that he made to the team in the offseason. But with an aging core that relied on a system from a coach that isn’t there, it could be the first step to a rebuild that many expected the team to need after losing Tavares in 2018.
2. Can Lane Lambert get something out of this group that Barry Trotz couldn’t? A lot has been made about Trotz’s success with this team during his time here and how much the Islanders relied on it. With him out of the picture, can Lambert steer the ship back on the right course, or is this a last-ditch move for Lamoriello with his job on the line?
3. Will this be the year Ilya Sorokin establishes himself as an superstar goaltender? Sorokin’s strong season went under the radar for some because the team in front of him wasn’t as great, but Sorokin has been off to a fantastic start to his NHL career these first two seasons. Another big year from him and his name probably ends up in the same conversation as goalies like Igor Shesterkin, Andrei Vasilevskiy, and Juuse Saros.
PREDICTION
The good news for the Islanders is that they’ve mostly kept the same group that they’ve had during their playoff runs over the past several years, so if they can figure things out, they likely improve and maybe even contend for the playoffs again. The bad news is that this is also the same group that struggled last season, and with the coach who provided them with the systems that worked so well out the door, it makes it that much harder to see a rebound.
Not starting the season with a lengthy road trip will do wonders for them off the hop, so if they can do well for the first couple months, that significantly improves their chances. But the Metropolitan Division is strong, with four playoff teams likely to still be competitive, and two more in the New Jersey Devils and Columbus Blue Jackets who made big offseason additions to put themselves in the conversation. Combine that with a stacked top four in the Atlantic, which likely means they have at least one fewer wildcard spot to work with, and it’s hard to see a spot opening up for them.
Overall, that 16-point gap is hard to see them making up, and with the team not all that different from last year, Lamoriello is going all in on that coaching change. I think they improve slightly from an overall team play standpoint, but it’s hard to see them being competitive enough to close that gap and make the playoffs.
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