2022-23 NHL Team Preview: Ottawa Senators

To see all the Daily Faceoff 2022-23 NHL team previews, click here.

LAST SEASON

The Senators had high expectations going into 2021-22, or at least high by their standards. After a strong second half to the 2020-21 season, many expected the team to start making some noise and contend for a playoff spot. That went out the window right away, as they lost 16 of their first 20 games of the season and struggled to come back from that.

In fact, they struggled to generate consistency of any kind throughout the season. They responded to that 4-15-1 start with a three-game winning streak, but that would wind up being one of only three winning streaks of at least three games that year, the other two coming in the final month of the season when they were out of contention. A massive shock was also dealt to the organization in March when the team’s owner Eugene Melnyk passed away, which made the season all the more difficult for players and management. They finished seventh in the Atlantic Division at the end of the season and 25 points back of the final Eastern Conference wildcard spot for the playoffs.

But, Senators general manager Pierre Dorion took the team underperforming to heart, and for the first time in a long time, Ottawa was on the receiving end of several blockbuster moves as he looked to improve the team. He dealt their 2022 first-round pick to the Chicago Blackhawks for Alex DeBrincat, sent goalie prospect Filip Gustavsson to the Minnesota Wild for Cam Talbot, and made a big splash in free agency by signing Claude Giroux. With these moves, the team looks to be much more competitive, although it’s still far from certain in the toughest division in the league.

KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES

Additions
Alex DeBrincat, LW
Claude Giroux, C
Cam Talbot, G
Tyler Motte, W
Jayce Hawryluk, LW
Jacob Larsson, D

Departures
Matt Murray, G (Tor)
Connor Brown, RW (Wsh)
Filip Gustavsson, G (Min)
Chris Tierney, C (Fla)
Colin White, C (Fla)
Adam Gaudette, C (Tor)
Victor Mete, D (Tor)
Michael Del Zotto, D (Fla)
Tyler Ennis, RW (UFA)

OFFENSE

The Senators found themselves with several breakout performances in 2021-22 from their young forward group. Brady Tkachuk and Josh Norris both hit the 30-goal mark, Tim Stutzle found his groove in the second half of the season with 35 points in his last 35 games, and Drake Batherson scored at almost a point per game when he was healthy. However, they had minimal production elsewhere, resulting in what was an overall poor offense, ranking 26th in goals per game with 2.73, 20th in 5-on-5 shot attempts for per 60 minutes with 53.75, 22nd in 5-on-5 expected goals for per 60 minutes with 2.37, and 20th in power play efficiency at 19.3 percent.

However, two additions in the offseason should definitely help with that. DeBrincat comes with two 40-goal seasons on his resume and will add a much needed pure goal scoring threat to the team, although there are still some questions on whether he can perform at that level now that he’s no longer with Patrick Kane. Giroux was the other big move up front, and while he isn’t the 100-point player he used to be, he proved that he can still be a talented scorer when surrounded by other scorers when he joined Florida, and he adds a nice veteran presence to their top six. Those two complement the four forwards already performing well in Ottawa to create a lethal forward corps.

Beyond that, there’s still a bit of work to do. Shane Pinto and Mathieu Joseph make for solid pieces on that third line, but there are a few more questions with the rest of the bottom six, and that will go a long way toward determining this team’s fate. The Sens moved on from Connor Brown as well, so that’s one fewer scoring forward that they could have utilized in this group, but they also have a solid prospect pool to pull from if they need options.

DEFENSE

On the back end, it’s still a bit bleak for the Senators. Last season, this group found itslef 22nd in goals against per game with 3.22, 25th in 5-on-5 shot attempts against per 60 minutes with 59.04, and 26th in 5-on-5 expected goals against per 60 minutes with 2.71. Its lone bright spot was the 13th best penalty kill at 80.3 percent, but when you struggle at even strength, you aren’t going to go far.

The reason Ottawa’s defensive outlook its still a bit bleak is because it didn’t really do anything with its blueline in the offseason. The Sens let a few pieces go, but all the ones projected to be on the team to start the season were in the organization last year. Thomas Chabot is the one player that no one should worry about, as he’s established himself was a high-end defender in the game, and Artem Zub has looked capable in the minutes he’s played so far in his career, but the rest of that core is a much bigger concern.

Travis Hamonic and Nikita Zaitsev are the biggest red flags, as the former is far removed from his time as a top-four defenseman and the latter has never really been effective throughout his career aside from a solid rookie season as a power play specialist. That puts a lot of pressure on Erik Brannstrom to finally develop into the defender he was supposed to become as a first-round pick, and so far in his career, he hasn’t come close to that potential. There’s another defender too, but we’ll get to him shortly. Overall, it’s a really weak blueline, especially for a team looking to make the playoffs.

GOALTENDING

The Senators’ other big offseason move came in the crease, as they brought in Talbot to provide a bit more veteran stability alongside Anton Forsberg. That’s something Talbot should be able to provide, as he’s been a consistently solid goaltender almost every year, aside from his final two seasons in Edmonton. He’s 35 now, so he probably doesn’t have too many good years left in him, but with one year left on his contract, the worst that could happen is he plays poorly and you move on from him.

Forsberg still has a solid chance to be the Game 1 starter, mostly as a reward for what was a great season for the NHL journeyman, although the Sens probably rotate between the two goalies throughout the year. Forsberg finished the 2020-21 season with a .917 save percentage and was 12th among goalies with 11.49 goals saved above expected. He was rewarded with a three-year contract, and it’s the stability he deserves after the 2020-21 season he had, bouncing around the league as a waiver claim from the Edmonton Oilers to the Carolina Hurricanes to the Winnipeg Jets without playing a game for them. It’s still a bit of a bet for the team, as his season could be a flash in the pan, but he and Talbot probably give the Sens the most stable goaltending they’ve had since Craig Anderson’s prime years.

COACHING

This will be the fourth season for D.J. Smith behind the Senators bench, and it will be his biggest test yet. The Senators haven’t quite found success under his tenure, with an 81-104-24 record in his three seasons that ranks 25th in the league, along with poor possession numbers during that span with a 24th-ranked 5-on-5 shot attempt share of 47.47 percent and 23rd ranked 5-on-5 expected goal share of 47.72 percent.

However, he hasn’t exactly had the strongest teams to work with, so it’s hard to tell how much of the poor performance is his fault. One thing he is known for is getting as much as possible out of his rosters, which was particularly put on display in the second half of the 2020-21 season, so if the team continues to struggle even after the improvements it made, it might not be the best look for Smith. I doubt he’d be fired, but I’d imagine his seat would get hot in a hurry.

ROOKIES

When talking about Ottawa’s defense corps earlier, there was a notable name I left out who could be a game changer, and that’s Jake Sanderson. He’s the Senators’ fifth overall pick from the 2020 NHL Draft, and he looks to be making the team’s lineup this season. He certainly brings a lot of potential to the table with his draft pedigree, even to the point where a lot of people see him as a strong candidate for the Calder Trophy. His presence still doesn’t completely save Ottawa’s blueline, as that’s a lot of faith to put in a rookie defenseman, but he’ll certainly help if he can perform well at the NHL level.

I’ve mentioned Shane Pinto as well in the forward group, and he’ll be another rookie with a strong chance of cracking the lineup. Unlike Sanderson, Pinto has a bit of NHL experience and played quite well in that brief stint, so he’ll be another player to keep an eye on as he hopes to put a full season under his belt.

Beyond those two, they also have Ridly Greig and Egor Sokolov in the system. It’s not as likely that they make the roster, but don’t be surprised if they find themselves in the lineup on occasion as injury replacements, or on the small chance that they impress in the AHL and are called up to round out Ottawa’s depth. It’s more likely that they’ll find themselves getting more NHL time in a year or two than this season.

BURNING QUESTIONS

1. How will the Senators improve their defense? As great as the moves the Sens made up front were, they are still heavily lagging behind on their blueline. The team will need to make upgrades there if they truly want to contend for a playoff spot, but with plenty of assets and cap space, a mid-season move is more than feasible for them. Otherwise, they’re relying a bit too much on Chabot and the potential of Brannstrom and Sanderson to carry that group.

2. Has Pierre Dorion actually been a good general manager all along? Dorion has received a lot of heat throughout his time as the Senators GM, but he was also at the mercy of ownership’s whims in Ottawa. Now, in the wake of Melnyk’s passing, Dorion has made plenty of big splashes in the trade market, free agency, and has even committed to the young core the team has put together throughout the rebuild, paying Stutzle and Norris big money for long term. Is Dorion actually a good hockey mind who was simply held back by his owner’s stinginess, or is this summer just a one-off for him?

3. Is this the right core to build around? As mentioned in the last question, Dorion made a big bet locking up Stutzle and Norris to massive extensions, along with the contracts of Tkachuk and Batherson signed last year. But with only one strong season under each player’s belt, risks come with betting big on those players. There’s a really good chance that they all reach the level they’re getting paid to perform at, and it’s much better to pay this kind of money to players in their early 20s than their late 20s or early 30s, but it’s still not a certainty either, which makes for an interesting storyline to keep an eye on for this season and in the future.

PREDICTION

The Senators made big splashes in the offseason, but the reality is that they still have question marks on the blueline and in the crease, and in a tough Atlantic division, there’s very little room for error. Their defense in particular needs some work, and while it’s possible that they improve on it mid-season, it could cause some struggles early in the year, and last season proved that a slow start means dead on arrival in a stacked Eastern conference.

Ultimately, I think the Sens do play better this season and find themselves in the playoff conversation longer than they have in past years, but it’s hard to see them making up a 25-point gap in one offseason. Anything can happen in hockey, so it wouldn’t completely surprise me, but I think a good season for the current state of the Senators would be one in which they finish first out of the group of themselves, Buffalo, Detroit, and Montreal outside of the playoffs.

_____

POINTSBET IS LIVE IN ONTARIO

Think you know sports? PointsBet Canada is live in Ontario!