2022-23 NHL team preview: Toronto Maple Leafs

LAST SEASON

How you feel about the Toronto Maple Leafs’ 2021-22 is a matter of perspective. Sunny side up: it was the best, most memorable regular season in team history. Toronto smashed its single-season bests for wins (54) and points (115), and superstar center Auston Matthews rewrote the franchise record books. His 60 goals leapfrogged Rick Vaive’s single-season Leaf mark of 54. Matthews did it in 73 games, giving him not just the first 60-goal season of any NHLer in a decade but also the highest goals-per-game of any player since Mario Lemieux in 1995-96. Matthews became the first Leaf to win the Hart Trophy as league MVP since Ted Kennedy in 1954-55.

So, yes, Matthews and linemate Mitch Marner led Toronto through a dazzling regular season and helped secure home ice in Round 1 of the Stanley Cup playoffs. The reward for their excellence: a date with the two-time defending champion Tampa Bay Lightning. That’s life in the Atlantic Division. Toronto pushed Tampa to the brink, staking a 3-2 series lead and a third-period lead in Game 6, but the Bolts fought back to force a Game 7 and broke the Leafs’ hearts at Scotiabank Arena. Make that six consecutive opening-round defeats and 0.0 playoff series wins in the Matthews/Marner era.

So was last year “different” considering how well Toronto played the Lightning and a harbinger that the Leafs are about to break through? Or is it the same old choker narrative entering a pressure-packed 2022-23 season in the Big Smoke?

KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES

Additions
Matt Murray, G
Ilya Samsonov, G
Calle Jarnkrok, RW
Jordie Benn, D
Nicolas Aube-Kubel, RW
Adam Gaudette, C
Victor Mete, D
Zach Aston-Reese, LW (PTO)

Departures
Jack Campbell, G (Edm)
Ilya Mikheyev, LW (Van)
Ondrej Kase, RW (Car)
Ilya Lyubushkin, D (Buf)
Petr Mrazek, G (Chi)
Colin Blackwell, C (Chi)
Michael Hutchinson, G (VGK)

OFFENSE

The Leafs have consistently ranked among the most dominant offensive teams in the league for half a decade, which isn’t too surprising considering they have Matthews, Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares and Morgan Rielly as a core engine and typical top power-play unit. For six consecutive seasons, the Leafs have ranked top-two in the NHL in scoring chances per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. Only the historically great Florida Panthers’ offense generated more goals than Toronto’s last season.

The biggest breakthrough for the Leafs in 2021-22: after hiring reigning AHL coach of the year Spencer Carbery in summer 2021, they finally clicked on the power play, converting on a league-best 27.3 percent of their chances.

Offensively, the Leafs have few weaknesses. The have a potent forward corps with multiple play-driving superstars in their primes. What made the Leafs stand out last year, however, was that they were deeper than in seasons past. It’s debatable whether they’re as deep this season after losing Ilya Mikheyev and Ondrej Kase in free agency. General manager Kyle Dubas is betting on the likes of Calle Jarnkrok and Nicolas Aube-Kubel to replace their production. What would really change the face of Toronto’s forward group, of course, would be if left winger and top forward prospect Nick Robertson could stay healthy and stick in the lineup as top-nine scoring threat full time.

DEFENSE

For the first several seasons of the Matthews/Marner era, high-event hockey was Toronto’s calling card. The Leafs generated tons of chances and also consistently ranked among the league’s leakiest defensive clubs. That’s not true any more. The Leafs have drastically improved their work in their own end in recent seasons, thanks in part to superstars Matthews and Marner getting better and better in their 200-foot play and also due to additions GM Kyle Dubas has made on the back end, most notably T.J. Brodie, taking pressure off the miscast Rielly to be a do-it-all shutdown blueliner. Even Toronto’s depth D-men, particularly the pair of Mark Giordano and Timothy Liljegren, graded out strong defensively last season.

Toronto actually gave up the 14^th-most goals in the league last season but that was because of weak goaltending, not weak defensive play. The Leafs ranked in the top 10 at preventing scoring chances and high-danger chances and had the fifth-lowest expected goals against per 60 at 5-on-5, not to mention the NHL’s eighth-best penalty kill, bolstered by poaching assistant coach Dean Chynoweth from the Carolina Hurricanes.

Can the Leafs maintain their relatively stingy standard this season? Their blueline forecast looks cloudy at the moment. Liljegren will miss at least the first month of the season after undergoing hernia surgery. Toronto’s other budding first-round pick on ‘D,’ Rasmus Sandin, remains an unsigned RFA mired in a contract squabble. It remains to be seen if he’ll even play another game as a Leaf, and every missed day of training camp hurts his chances at becoming a meaningful contributor for Toronto considering he missed significant time in 2021-22 due to injury and wound up a healthy scratch during the playoffs. With the injury-prone Jake Muzzin showing up to camp nursing a sore back to boot, Toronto’s depth on ‘D’ will be tested early this season.

GOALTENDING

Toronto’s net was a soap opera last season. Jack Campbell looked like a Vezina Trophy frontrunner in the fall but imploded in the winter along with his battery mate Petr Mrazek. It was later revealed that Campbell was playing through a rib injury, and he was closer to his old self after returning for the stretch run, but the Leafs’ goaltending was their weak link and ultimately caused their demise last season. They had the 27^th-best 5-on-5 team save percentage, easily the worst of any team to make the postseason. With even average goaltending they might have won the Presidents’ Trophy and avoided Tampa in Round 1.

Though Campbell gave the Leafs more good moments than bad moments during his 2.5 seasons with the team, Dubas decided not to pay up when Campbell went UFA. If he couldn’t deliver consistently in the money moments, it wasn’t worth overpaying to keep him, so the Leafs roll into 2022-23 with two projects in net.

One is the two-time Stanley Cup winner Matt Murray, acquired from the Ottawa Senators and rekindling the Soo Greyhound connection with Dubas and coach Sheldon Keefe. Murray has endured injury and confidence woes over the past few seasons, toiling on some terrible Senators’ teams, but the Leafs hope he can recapture his star-caliber play on a more competitive team. He’s still just 28.

The other option: Ilya Samsonov, whose career path mirrors Campbell’s. Samsonov, like Campbell, is a first-round pick who was once considered a can’t-miss future star. Samsonov, 25, fell out of favor amid questions about his dedication in D.C. and the Washington Capitals opted not to extend him a qualifying offer. He’s a risky acquisition for Toronto but carries undeniable upside.

COACHING

Under Keefe, the Leafs have established stronger two-way play and given their stars larger roles than Mike Babcock ever allowed. Keefe holds a .678 points percentage behind Toronto’s bench, the third-highest in NHL history among coaches with at least 150 games. But Dubas and team president Shanahan were vocally protective of Keefe at the end of 2022, evidently understanding that they needed to publicly justify keeping him around.

The pressure is mounting on the Leafs to challenge for a championship before Matthews (a) leaves as a UFA two seasons from now or (b) stays but earns such a hefty raise that it will severely limit Toronto’s spending freedom two seasons from now, so they need a coach who can finally help them go far in the playoffs. Is that Keefe? He’s been a sturdy fit, media friendly and mostly perceived to be on the same page as Dubas, but Keefe has struggled to make adjustments deeper in playoff series as his opponents adjust to him. If Toronto plateaus early in 2022-23, will Keefe get the hook? Or will Dubas ride his guy until the end?

We know Barry Trotz is just sitting out there, observing, waiting for the right job offer to come along…

ROOKIES

It still feels like Robertson is a rookie considering he only has 16 NHL games to his name. But he’s no longer Calder Trophy eligible, having played at least six games in two straight seasons. Developmentally, though? Sure, he’s a rookie, one hoping to play his way into a prominent role. Armed with a lethal shot, he buried 16 goals in just 28 AHL games last season. The Leafs’ depth chart just makes more sense if Robertson, younger brother of Dallas Stars’ cornerstone Jason, can make the team.

There’s an argument to be made that Matthew Knies is actually the most intriguing prospect Toronto has up front given his unicorn-like skill set as a big power forward with surprising finesse to his game. He is returning to the University of Minnesota for another season but could give the Leafs a spring lift by turning pro after the NCAA schedule wraps up.

Brainy center Nick Abruzzese, a Harvard grad, saw some late-season action with the Leafs last year but will likely spend the bulk of 2022-223 in the AHL so he can play top-six minutes. Given the Leafs’ injury concerns on ‘D,’ we could see Filip Kral or Mac Hollowel in NHL duty at some point early this season.

BURNING QUESTIONS

1. Is this Kyle Dubas’ final chance? Dubas’ contract has not been renewed beyond this year, very clearly setting up 2022-23 as a “prove it” season. The analytics-heavy approach has helped Dubas produce some dominant regular-season clubs and find some excellent bargain signings, but what can president Brendan Shanahan do if the Leafs bomb out a seventh consecutive season?

2. Is John Tavares in decline? Tavares turned 32 last week. He’s not exactly a bag of dusty bones, but he looked a lot older than 32 at times during the Stanley Cup playoffs last spring. He remains a viable top-six NHL forward, but he was never a great skater even at his peak, so his lack of foot speed is becoming increasingly visible as he exits his prime. Tavares is still a crucial part of the team’s core, locked up for three more seasons, but his contract is beginning to take on water at an $11 million AAV.

3. Will Toronto’s dice roll in goal pay off? Toronto lost to Carey Price and Andrei Vasilevskiy in consecutive postseasons. Goaltending has ultimately decided the Leafs’ fate more than anything else of late. So it’s hardly hyperbole to say the Murray and Samsonov additions will be the make-or-break transactions of the Dubas era. Both have the talent to make him look like a genius. Both also have enough warts that they could leave Toronto scrambling to find a third option by the new year.

PREDICTION

The Atlantic Division is much improved this season – at the bottom. Between the Florida Panthers, Tampa Bay Lightning and Boston Bruins, the field actually got weaker at the top. The Leafs arguably suffered the least catastrophic personnel losses (or, in Boston’s case, injuries), year over year among the contenders and look like the best team in the division on paper entering 2022-23.

But can they finally win a playoff round? That’s all that really matters to the fan base. Maybe the buzzy offseasons for the Ottawa Senators, Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames work in Toronto’s favor. There isn’t as much Canadian-market hype around the Leafs this season, so maybe it’s the perfect window to sneak into the second round. Once they do that, anything can happen.

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