2022 NHL Draft Stock Watch: Who’s up, who’s down after under-18 World Championship

The NHL draft lottery will be drawn on May 10, providing a brief reprieve from disappointment for the teams that did not reach the playoffs this year. Having a chance to get a top-16 pick in this year’s NHL draft is a good spot. This is not a very deep class relative to those of recent years, so those high picks are probably even more valuable than normal.

I spent the previous two weeks in Germany at the IIHF Men’s Under-18 World Championship evaluating many top prospects for the 2022 NHL draft. You don’t want to read too much into a short tournament, but to see top players against their peers is a very good measuring stick, especially at the end of the season. For many, this is their final on-ice impression to leave on NHL teams who have been scouting them all year.

Since I’ve also been tracking the players, I thought I’d share who I thought helped or hurt their draft stock at this tournament, as well as a few other players I was keeping tabs on. This is by no means a comprehensive list, but I tried to pull out some notable players that have been around the edges of the first-round conversation as well as some who I think might deserve a little more recognition than they’ve gotten so far.

Stock Rising…

Jiri Kulich, C: The MVP at U18 Worlds, Kulich scored nine goals and had 11 points in just six games for fourth-place Czechia. After playing all year in the Czech pro league where scoring can be difficult for a teenager, he was able to showcase his elite one-timer and ability to drive play. There were a lot of Kulich believers before the tournament, especially among scouts, but after that performance, Kulich put himself on the first-round radar in a major way.

Jonathan Lekkerimaki, RW: The leading scorer of the U18s with 15 points in six games helped lead Sweden to the gold medal for just the second time in tournament history. Lekkerimaki has been a first-rounder all season, but he’s made a case for himself to be more firmly entrenched in the top 15. His World Championship performance was merely a continuation of a season that warranted first-round consideration, but his last impression with scouts allowed Lekkerimaki to make a case that he belongs in the upper tier of this class. He has tremendous puck skills and a devastating shot but showed in this tournament he is an equally dangerous pass threat.

Rutger McGroarty, LW: Team USA’s captain scored a ton of big goals in the tournament and finished his U18 with eight tallies including two in the gold-medal game. The U.S. ultimately fell short thanks to running into a hot goaltender, but McGroarty was able to score a lot of big goals for his team. He was also a scoring chance and shot machine in the tournament. I’ve been a big fan of McGroarty all season, but there’s a lot of concern about his skating and lack of footspeed. However, I feel like this tournament showed that he knows how to get to the good scoring areas, he is efficient in his movement and he’s very, very difficult to move from the net-front. He can score from distance or in tight. I think he plays a style that fits right in with how you win at the NHL level in the playoffs.

Mattias Havelid, D: Sweden’s No. 1 defenseman at the World Championship has been dogged about his size all season. At 5-foot-10, he has to have some exceptional skills and skating to garner first-round consideration. He may have given himself a chance to be among the top 32 picks after showcasing his vast and high-end skill set at the World U18s. He had 12 points in six games, which was one point shy for the most points by a defenseman in that tournament’s history. I’m still not certain he’ll be a first-rounder, but it’s not out of the realm of possibility. Havelid has good mobility and makes mature, creative decisions with the puck. He gets pucks out of his zone with ease and has a hard, accurate wrist shot that he can score with from distance. His whole-season body of work needs to be considered and a lot of it was only OK, but in Sweden’s U20 league playoffs and this tournament, he’s played his best hockey of the season.

Isaac Howard, LW: A dynamic scoring threat who has an excellent shot and isn’t afraid to let it go from anywhere, Howard led Team USA in scoring at the U18s. He had a four-goal game against Canada to start the tournament and while he continued to make an impact, he didn’t quite match that Game 1 performance. What he did do, however, was showcase an ability to escape pressure, beat defenders 1-on-1, create time and space with patience and skill, and he has hands and feet that move with equal quickness. There are some concerns about Howard’s straight-line speed and his size, as he’s a lighter player, but this tournament further proved his dynamic capabilities are worthy of being a top-25 pick.

Topi Ronni, C: Not all these players are going to go in the first round, and Ronni certainly won’t, but I think he showcased the role he can play at the NHL level in this tournament. He played a strong two-way game, where he was disruptive in the offensive zone and capable in his own zone. He separated opponents from pucks with good body position and strength. For large stretches of the tournament, his line was Finland’s most critical as it was able to keep opposing teams on their heels in the opposition’s zone. He made a strong case to be an early Day 2 pick.

Liam Ohgren, LW: For a lot of this season, I’ve wondered exactly what Ohgren is supposed to be. He’s skilled, but not so skilled you can see him driving a top-six line. He’s strong, but not always physically dominant. But when you get him in his age group, and as we saw with his incredible U20 league performance this season in Sweden, he is advanced. His strength, his shot and his sneaky skill all helped him contribute in a major way to Sweden’s gold-medal efforts with nine points in the tournament. He has a heavy shot, plays with some power and his hands are pretty solid. His skating is probably closer to average, which is why he may be on the fringe for first-round consideration, but it’s hard to imagine he’ll last long on Day 2 of the draft.

Hugo Havelid, G: It’s almost impossible for 5-foot-10 goaltenders to get drafted. Havelid, however, made a case with his performance throughout the tournament. He was by far the best goaltender there with a .929 save percentage through his five starts and his masterful performance in backstopping Sweden to gold against a much better U.S. team. He has great technique, is aggressive and battles in the crease. He never quits on a play. The issue is that teams are very reluctant to draft goalies that are under 6-foot-2, let alone under six-foot. With the success of Juuse Saros in the NHL and Dustin Wolf in the AHL, smaller goaltenders can break through. I think Havelid might be one of the few that deserves long consideration to be drafted.

Ryan Chesley, D: The U.S. defenseman made a lot of great defensive plays but also got engaged in the offensive game. His numbers weren’t amazing this year, but Chesley showed a mature, well-rounded game at the U18 Worlds and still has a chance to sneak into the first round. He played massive minutes and often had the toughest defensive assignments during the U18 Worlds.

Noah Ostlund, C: I’ve spent a lot of this year trying to figure out exactly what I thought Ostlund could be at the next level. I still am trying to figure that out, as he’s a bit on the smaller side and an average, not amazing skater. Ostlund, however, showed tremendous versatility as he was Sweden’s most utilized center. It had lost Leo Carlsson early in the tournament to injury, and coach Magnus Havelid just rolled three centers over the course of the tournament. So Ostlund could be playing with the first line or the third line at any given moment. In the end, he made a ton of plays, scored some huge goals and finished with 10 points in six games. It was the best I’d seen him play all year and I thought it was a good lasting impression for him to leave on scouts. I don’t know if it gets him into the first round, but it doesn’t hurt.

Stock Falling…

Matyas Sapovaliv, C: I thought Sapovaliv played mostly fine, but he disappeared in too many games I watched. I like the player, but he’s gotten a fair amount of first-round buzz and I simply don’t see it at this point. He was vastly overshadowed by more talented teammates like Kulich and underager Eduard Sale. Sapovaliv is still very much a top-three-round pick and can find a role one day, but I think it’s a fairly big stretch to consider him a first-round candidate.

Elias Salomonsson, D: He is one of the top Swedish defensemen in his age group and defends at a very strong level. He also has good mobility, range and decent size. What he doesn’t have a lot of is offensive know-how and it’s increasingly difficult for those types of players to become top-four defensemen in the NHL. He had one assist in the World U18s in a top-four role for Sweden. After a strong year in Sweden’s U20 league, I had hoped to see more offense translating, but I’m not entirely sure it’s there. He has a lot of potential, but I didn’t think this tournament did him any favors.

Filip Bystedt, C: Bystedt has all the physical tools you want to see. He’s a 6-foot-4 forward that can skate. However, I think this season has exposed average to below-average hockey sense and that remained evident at the Under-18 World Championship. I think there’s a lot left to be mined and developed out of this player and would absolutely find a place for him on my draft board, but after getting a chance to see him live, it’s going to be lower than I initially planned after just video views.

Topias Leinonen, G: He is the top-ranked international goaltender by NHL Central Scouting and a goalie with some upside in one of the weakest goaltending drafts I’ve ever covered. After watching him at the U18s, you see his size and his athleticism, but he got caught deep in his net a ton in the tournament. There were some unforgivable goals in some of their biggest games and it gave me a fair amount of concern about his overall talent level. I think there’s absolutely some upside there in his physical tools, but I just didn’t see a goaltender that I’d be comfortable drafting over the course of the tournament.

David Goyette, LW: Canada had a disappointing tournament, but I think Goyette was one of the guys that I expected a lot more from. He has really excellent skill and can score and before the U18 Worlds, his draft stock was rising. So let’s really quickly state that this tournament alone is not going to impact his draft status a ton. However, a player of his ability needed to take more charge in this tournament and instead, he kept falling further down the lineup as other players proved more effective. Goyette is going to be an early Day 2 pick, but I think his hopes of landing in the first round were not at all helped by his three-point performance for Canada at the Worlds.

Away from the Under-18s

I wanted to share a few quick thoughts on some players that were not at the U18 World Championship because there’s a lot of other things going on in the hockey world right now. That’s especially true of the top two defensemen in this draft. Both have been making a little bit of noise of late.

David Jiricek, D: Healthy after being injured at the World Juniors the day before it was cancelled, Jiricek has been playing for the Czech senior national team in the buildup to the IIHF Men’s World Championship. And he’s been playing really well. Jiricek has scored two goals in pre-tournament competition and has shown that his knee looks just fine after missing half the season. If he makes the final World Championship roster, he’ll have a perfect showcase to prove to scouts that he still belongs in the top tier of this draft.

Simon Nemec, D: A few scouts that were at the U18 Worlds took a detour to Slovakia to get a look at Nemec in the playoffs with HK Nitra. He had been absolutely tearing it up and even took a brief break with his club to help Slovakia ensure promotion to the U18’s top level next year with two assists in the only game he played. Nitra ultimately lost their last series to HC Slovan, but Nemec’s playoff performance was one for the ages. He had 17 points in 19 games, averaging upwards of 20 minutes per game, as Nitra fell just short of the title. He’s very much in the top-three discussion for this draft and is expected to play for Slovakia in the upcoming men’s World Championship.

____

POINTSBET CANADA IS LIVE IN ONTARIO

PointsBet Canada has officially launched in Ontario! Get more details right here!

Recently by Chris Peters

• Boston University tabs former NHLer Jay Pandolfo as head coach
• Under-18 World Championship: Sweden stuns U.S. for gold, Finland takes bronze
• Under-18 World Championship: Canada bounced, USA rolls, Czechia’s Jiri Kulich on fire
• Under-18 World Championship: Connor Bedard makes history, USA dominant
• Peters: Hobey Baker winner Dryden McKay sanctioned for banned substance