2023-24 NHL Prospect Pool Breakdown: Toronto Maple Leafs

Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

If you’ve followed this series at all, you know that most top contenders have brutal prospect pipelines.

The Toronto Maple Leafs are no exception.

The Leafs haven’t had much to work with regarding actual draft capital over the past three years. After selecting 12 players in 2020, they’ve only taken 11 over the past three years – and it could be argued that they stretched to land their first picks over the past two years in Fraser Minten and Easton Cowan.

But one thing the Leafs have that many other contenders don’t is a player with top-six potential. That’s Matthew Knies, who signed his entry-level contract after his sophomore season with the University of Minnesota Golden Gophers. In those two years, he established himself as a key piece of the team’s future. Is he maybe a bit overhyped given the market? Perhaps, but if we can take anything away from his brief NHL action to close out the year, it’s that he’s ready for the pro game.

Before we look deeper into the team’s future, we need to take a moment to acknowledge the tragic loss of Rodion Amirov earlier this month. The team’s first pick in 2020 passed away after a cancer fight at the age of 21. He was a young kid with a bright future, and it was a devastating loss to the hockey community. Our best wishes are with his friends and family during this difficult time.

Biggest Strength

While they might not have a starter in waiting, the Leafs have an influx of goalie talent. The Marlies have a crowded crease with Keith Petruzzelli and Dennis Hildeby, and Artur Akhtyamov and Vyacheslav Peksa are coming off great seasons in Russia. Joseph Woll will earn a full-time gig with the big club this year after a season to remember in 2022-23. Goaltending has been a difficult position for the Leafs to find stability at in recent years, but they’ve got options for the long run.

Biggest Weakness

Toronto has greatly improved defensive depth over the past few years. But in their pipeline? It’s lacking right now. Topi Niemelä is one to watch with potential, and William Villeneuve might be a decent third-pairing defenseman the way he continues to improve. After that? There isn’t much to get excited about outside of spot appearances. Having an influx of guys who can fill in for a few games every now and then isn’t a bad thing, but they don’t have much in terms of actual impact.

TOP 10 PROSPECTS

*Joseph Woll (Kim Klement/USA TODAY Sports)*

Grade: C-

1. Matthew Knies, LW, 20 (Toronto Maple Leafs)

Drafted: No. 57, second round in 2021

There was a ton of hype surrounding Knies’ arrival last year, and it was well-deserved. The University of Minnesota alum had 21 goals and 42 points in 40 NCAA games last year, making him a finalist for the Hobey Baker Award. He turned pro after losing the Frozen Four and scored his first NHL goal against Florida in the second round. Knies was injured by Sam Bennett in Game 2 and missed the rest of the series, but his hard-working, physical play made him an exciting option in the team’s top six. It’s worth noting that Knies is waiver exempt, so it wouldn’t be surprising if the Leafs end up needing to loan him to the AHL early on. That wouldn’t be a bad thing given his age, either.

2. Joseph Woll, G, 25 (Toronto Maple Leafs)

Drafted: No. 62, third round in 2016

He won 16 AHL games in a row before eventually going on a five-game losing streak to close out the regular season. He also went 6-1-0 with a .932 save percentage while helping out Toronto in a pinch – which also included a vital Game 4 win for the Leafs to avoid a second-round sweep by Florida. He’s been excellent whenever he’s been with the Leafs, and after a few years of staying healthy, Woll is ready for full-time duty. But could Martin Jones push him out of the No. 2 spot? We’ll have to see, though it’s worth noting Woll is not waiver exempt.

*Topi Niemela (Steven Ellis/Daily Faceoff)*

3. Topi Niemelä, D, 21 (Toronto Marlies)

Drafted: No. 64, third round in 2020

Niemelä is an exciting young defenseman who is ready to go full-time with the Marlies this season. He showed his worth over the past four years of Liiga play, seeing close to 20 minutes a night most games as a 20-year-old with Kärpät. The Marlies blueline will look different with some veterans moving on, opening the door for Niemelä to make an impact out of the gate. The Leafs have a crowded blueline, but Niemelä could factor into the conversation in a year or two, depending on salary cap constraints.

4. Nick Robertson, LW, 21 (Toronto Maple Leafs)

Drafted: No. 53, second round in 2019

With just 82 NHL games played since January 2021, so much of Robertson’s key development time has been lost to injuries. The 5-foot-9 winger has struggled to stay healthy and was forced to watch from the press box on a handful of occasions. He has proven he’s ready to step up from the AHL, but every time he seems to gain momentum, something knocks him out. This is a big year for Robertson to stay in game shape and prove he’s capable of being an everyday player. Toronto has quite a bit of depth on the wings, so it won’t be easy. If he doesn’t make it, perhaps a change of scenery is needed to get a fresh start.

5. Fraser Minten, C, 19 (Kamloops, WHL)

Drafted: No. 38, second round in 2022

It was an interesting season for Minten, who had 31 goals and 67 points in the regular season with Kamloops. He had a quiet playoffs and Memorial Cup, but Kamloops had other high-end players that picked up the slack, like Logan Stankoven and Caedan Bankier. Minten felt like a stretch for the Leafs at No. 38, with most expecting him to be a third-liner at best, but he has a good shot, is a tremendous passer, and has some speed to boot.

*Pontus Holmberg (John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports)*

6. Pontus Holmberg, C, 24 (Toronto Maple Leafs)

Drafted: No. 156, sixth round in 2018

Holmberg made an impact in his first season with the Leafs, using a solid start in the AHL with the Marlies to play in 37 NHL games with the big club. He had a respectable 13 points, playing a solid bottom-six role for the club. He could start the year with the Marlies as the team is still dealing with cap hell, but coach Sheldon Keefe likes him, for sure.

7. Roni Hirvonen, C, 21 (Toronto, AHL)

Drafted: No. 59, second round in 2020

At 5-foot-9, Hirvonen lacks the size you’re looking for. But he’s so smart with the puck, put up good numbers with HIFK in Finland and works his butt off to win puck battles. He’ll need to improve his own-zone positioning, but he seems to adapt well to whatever role he’s assigned. With four years of pro hockey experience under his belt, he’s quite experienced against quality competition, too. He was concussed at Toronto’s development camp, but he’ll be one to watch once he makes his AHL debut.

8. Easton Cowan, C, 18 (London, OHL)

Drafted: No. 28, first round in 2023

Cowan was a surprise pick at No. 28, with most not expecting him to get selected until the third round. Could it pay off for the Leafs? There is definitely some potential for him to be a late-blooming gem. After spending 2021-22 in Jr. B, Cowan exploded for 20 goals and 53 points this year. He played his best hockey during the playoffs, though, recording 21 points in 20 games. And it feels like he’s just scratching the surface. Still seems like the Leafs stretched big here, but let’s give them the benefit of the doubt.

*Nicholas Moldenhauer (Steven Ellis/Daily Faceoff)*

9. Nick Moldenhauer, C/RW, 19 (University of Michigan, NCAA)

Drafted: No. 95, third round in 2022

Moldenhauer was a sight to see in the USHL, lining up alongside top 2024 NHL Draft prospect Macklin Celebrini. Moldenhauer finished with 30 goals and 75 points during the regular season, building upon an excellent 43-point rookie campaign. There isn’t anything spectacular about his game, but Moldenhauer is good in many areas, making him versatile. We’ll see what he can do at Michigan.

10. Dennis Hildeby, G, 22 (Toronto, AHL)

Drafted: No. 122, fourth round in 2022

A late-round overage pickup in 2022, Hildeby had a solid season with Farjestad with an 11-9-0 record and three shutouts. He then finished the season with the Marlies, getting thrust into the action with Woll up with the big club. Hildeby will play full-time with the Marlies next year alongside Keith Petruzzelli, with Hildeby getting a chance to prove he’s a potential long-term NHL backup option.

Other notables: Alex Steeves, LW (23), Semyon Der-Arguchintsev, C (22), Dmitry Ovchinnikov, C (21), Ty voit, LW (20), Ryan Tverberg, C (21), Marshall Rifai, D (25), Mikko Kokkonen, D (22), William Villeneuve, D (21), Keith Petruzzelli, G (24), Vyacheslav Peksa, G (20), Max Ellis, RW (22), Braeden Kressler, C (20), Nikita Grebenkin, RW (20), Hudson Malinoski, C (19), Joe Miller, LW (20), Mike Koster, D (22), Noah Chadwick, D (18), Veeti Miettinen, RW (21), Artur Akhtiamkov, G (21), Brandon Lisowsky, LW (19)

Previous 2023-24 NHL Prospect Pool instalments

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