2023-24 NHL team preview: Columbus Blue Jackets

Credit: Johnny Gaudreau (© Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports)

LAST SEASON

The Columbus Blue Jackets stunned the hockey world when they flew in off the top rope and landed top unrestricted free agent Johnny Gaudreau on Day 1 of 2022 free agency. It supposedly signified a new dawn for a franchise determined to become an appealing long-term destination for top players. Were the Blue Jackets about to begin a major ascension in the Metropolitan Division?

No. Far from it. Minutes into the team’s opening regular-season game, star sniper Patrik Laine sprained his elbow. It set the tone for a star-crossed season in which Columbus lost well north of 500 man games. The most prominent among their many misfortunes came to No. 1 defenseman Zach Werenski, who suffered a season-ending shoulder injury after just 13 games. Columbus lost 20 of its first 30 games and never recovered. Gaudreau could only do so much with so little healthy help surrounding him. He dipped from 115 to 74 points, while the Blue Jackets’ points percentage fell from .490 in 2021-22 to .360 in 2022-23, the second-worst mark in their 23 seasons of existence.

Everything that could go wrong indeed went wrong last season, but GM Jarmo Kekalainen began turning around the team’s vibes early in the offseason, making aggressive trades for top-four defenseman Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson, drafting NCAA Hobey Baker Award winner Adam Fantilli and replacing Brad Larsen with Mike Babcock as head coach. The 2023-24 Blue Jackets will look very different from last year’s incarnation.

KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES

Additions

Ivan Provorov, D
Damon Severson, D
Adam Fantilli, C
Dmitri Voronkov, C

Departures

Gavin Bayreuther, D (Dal)
Lane Pederson, C (Edm)
Michael Hutchinson, G (UFA)
Joona Luoto, LW (UFA)
Justin Richards, C (Buf)
Jon Gillies, G (UFA)

OFFENSE

Only one Blue Jackets forward even played 80 games last season. Just five hit the 70-game mark. Never at full strength and without Werenski quarterbacking on breakouts, they mustered the 30^th-ranked offense and 26^th-ranked power play in the NHL. Gaudreau forged decent chemistry on the top line with Boone Jenner and Laine, but it was difficult to get all three in the lineup on an everyday basis. Laine was limited to 55 games one season after playing in just 56. The Blue Jackets’ secondary scoring didn’t really show up, either. Jack Roslovic plateaued after a mini breakout in 2021-22. While nifty-mitted Kent Johnson flashed serious potential with a 16-goal rookie campaign, fellow first-round prospect Cole Sillinger was lost. He managed just three goals in 64 games and wound up demoted to the AHL in March.

There’s reason to expect some sustainable improvement on offense this season, however. Fantilli is an NHL-ready prospect who dominated grown men in delivering one of the best NCAA freshman seasons ever last year. He’ll step right into a scoring-line assignment, perhaps on the second line alongside his fellow Michigan alumnus Johnson. The Blue Jackets could see further progression from Kirill Marchenko, who was quite the pleasant surprise last season, delivering 21 goals – and just four assists – in 59 games as a rookie. With a healthy Werenski joined by newcomers Severson and Provorov on defense, the Jackets should move the puck far more proficiently this coming season.

DEFENSE

The Blue Jackets can thank the 2022-23 Anaheim Ducks for existing. Otherwise, we might talk up last year’s Blue Jackets as the worst defensive team of all-time. They were the second club in the past 28 years to surrender more than four goals per game, topped only by, you guessed it, the ’22-23 Ducks. Only seven teams this millennium allowed more shots against per game than Columbus did last year. The Jackets allowed the second-most 5-on-5 scoring chances per 60, too.

But, goodness, did Kekalainen ever get to work addressing the problem. On top of getting Werenski back, Columbus has completely remade its top four by adding Provorov and Severson, the latter of whom had a pretty strong two-way impact as a New Jersey Devil. Once we also factor in the possibility of top prospect David Jiricek making the team out of camp, the Blue Jackets’ D-corps looks reborn. This is also an extremely deep group now. While the top three are set, any combination of Jiricek, Adam Boqvist, Erik Gudbranson, Andrew Peeke and Jake Bean could round out the rest of the top six.

The D-corps looks vastly improved, but Columbus’ forward group is largely comprised of young, raw forwards and veteran forwards not known for their commitments to two-way play. So while the Blue Jackets should allow fewer goals in 2023-24, the learning curve will remain steep.

GOALTENDING

Joonas Korpisalo delivered career-best work coming off 2022 hip surgery, built up his trade value and wound up shipped to the L.A. Kings at the trade deadline as a rental last season. Columbus turned the reins over to his longtime battery mate, Elvis Merzlikins, and rookie Daniil Tarasov. Going into 2023-24 with that tandem, the Jackets don’t seem particularly close to figuring out their long-term solution in net. The fiery Merzlikins posted a save percentage below .870 in four different months and graded out analytically as the league’s worst goaltender last season, allowing more than a goal above the average per 60 at 5-on-5. Tarasov actually had a more difficult workload in terms of quality of chances against, but he was slightly better, with emphasis on slightly. His .892 SV% left plenty to be desired.

It appears Columbus will sink or swim with this duo. Merzlikins has had success at the NHL level. On the other hand, he’s had plenty of failure, too. Tarasov still theoretically has potential left to unlock. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see him overtake Merzlikins for the 1A role by season’s end. Tarasov has to prove he’s up to the workload, however; he has a history of lower-body injuries.

COACHING

The Blue Jackets knew what they were doing when they introduced Babcock as head coach on July 1, hours before free agency opened and dominated the news cycle. The hire was controversial. Babcock hadn’t coached in the NHL since 2019, when the Toronto Maple Leafs fired him. He had come under fire for allegations that he mentally abused his players, most notably Mitch Marner and, dating back to Babcock’s days coaching the Detroit Red Wings, Johan Franzen. Known for an abrasive, ego-driven style, Babcock should instill discipline on a team in need of it. He was responsible for righting a rebuilding Toronto team’s ship. On the other hand, his style tends to alienate him from his players. He’s also earned a lot of his NHL success coaching teams that were loaded with high-end talent. It’s possible the Leafs rose in the standings under him simply because they had so many game-breakers. Is Babcock capable of making Columbus’ roster into a winner?

ROOKIES

If you love tracking top-tier NHL prospects, you’ll want to stay glued to Blue Jackets games this season. Fantilli reminds me of Jack Eichel in the 2015 NHL Draft class. Just as Eichel would’ve been a No. 1 pick in the previous several drafts before sharing a draft year with Connor McDavid, Fantilli likely would’ve been the No. 1 prospect on the board in 2022 and arguably 2021 and 2020, too. That made it all the more shocking when the Ducks passed on him for Leo Carlsson at No. 2 overall in the 2023 Draft, giving Columbus a gift. Fantilli has all the makings of a franchise player. He’s a scorer and a leader, an all-round dominator whom Daily Faceoff prospect analyst Steven Ellis compares to prime Jonathan Toews. It wouldn’t be remotely surprising to see Fantilli secure Columbus’ No. 1 center job in short order as a rookie. Then again, Babcock tends to slow-play his young players’ minutes, so we shouldn’t expect Fantilli to rank among the team’s ice time leaders in Year 1.

Fantilli is undoubtedly one of the top prospects on the planet, yet Columbus could break in another player from that elite group this season in Jiricek. He’s blessed with size, mobility, a booming shot and the all-around makeup of a minute-munching No.1 defenseman. He saw four games of NHL action last year and looked comfortable in 55 AHL games. He’s NHL ready, but adding Provorov and Severson means Columbus doesn’t have to rush Jiricek. He’s only 19 and has legitimate competition to win a starting gig out of camp. That’s a good place to be; you want your rookies winning jobs on merit rather than being handed jobs out of necessity.

BURNING QUESTIONS

1. Is Adam Fantilli already Columbus’ best center? It’s exciting to imagine what he might do between Gaudreau and Laine. If Fantilli is as good as advertised, Babcock could experiment with that connection sooner rather than later.

2. Can the Blue Jackets revive Ivan Provorov’s career? He looked like a future Norris Trophy candidate in his early days with the Philadelphia Flyers. Now he’s somewhat of a reclamation project. His game fell off in the past couple seasons, as did his reputation when he refused to don a Pride jersey during a pre-game warmup. Can Provorov re-establish himself as an impact player in this league?

3. Will the troops still follow Mike Babcock into battle? His reputation has taken major damage since he last coached in the NHL. With pre-existing knowledge of his questionable methods, will his new players be less likely to buy into his game planning? If so, the experiment could sour quickly.

PREDICTION

I recently listed the Blue Jackets among the most improved teams on paper entering the 2023-24 season. Improved injury luck alone should yield more wins, and the additions of Fantilli, Provorov and Severson make their lineup deeper and much more dynamic. Also factoring in that the Philadelphia Flyers are tanking and the Washington Capitals are transitioning out of their competitive window, there’s room for Columbus to climb in the Metro Division. Does it seem so far fetched when you consider the leap the New Jersey Devils made a year ago? While the playoffs would be too big of an ask, bet on marked improvement and a sharp increase in cannon blasts at Nationwide Arena this season.

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