2023-24 NHL team preview: Winnipeg Jets

Credit: Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports

LAST SEASON

Things were bright in the early going. On Jan. 1, the Jets sat second in the Central Division and fourth in the Western Conference, with many wondering if the club could make a surprise championship run. But by April, they found themselves fighting for one of the final playoff spots, eventually landing in a Wildcard spot. Whether it was because of inconsistent play or health issues throughout the lineup, the Jets couldn’t keep things moving at a tangible pace throughout the season.

Trade rumors dogged the lineup all year long. If you believed the internet, Pierre-Luc Dubois seemed destined to join Montreal at various points, only to stick things out in Manitoba. Blake Wheeler’s future was in question from Day 1. What about Connor Hellebuyck? Was he going to be moved to a contender to expedite the inevitable rebuild?

Ultimately, the core stuck around, for better or worse. On one hand, expectations were low for the Jets in 2022-23. But given the potential for big results midway through the year, starting the playoffs with a win over Vegas before losing four straight had to sting.

KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES

Additions

Gabriel Vilardi, RW
Rasmus Kupari, C
Alex Iafallo, LW
Lauren Brossoit, G
Jeffrey Viel, LW
Artemi Knyazev, D

Departures

Pierre-Luc Dubois, C (LA)
Blake Wheeler, RW (NYR)
David Rittich, G (LA)
Kevin Stenlund, C (Fla)
Arvid Holm, G (Col)
Leon Gawanke, D (SJ)
Alex Limoges, LW (Wsh)
Karson Kuhlman, RW (NYI)
Sam Gagner, C (Edm)
Saku Manalanen, LW (Liiga)

OFFENSE

Between the departures of Dubois and Wheeler, the Jets are losing 43 goals and 118 points. Between Gabe Vilardi, Alex Iafallo and Rasmus Kupari, you’re looking at 40 goals and 92 points.

So that’s not an equal replacement, but the Jets cleared up some vital cap space while banking on some young players taking big steps forward. One of those players is Cole Perfetti, who, before missing the final few months of the season with an injury, was on pace for 50 points as a rookie. The dynamic offensive threat should step up in a big way, and it helps that he has experience at center and on the left wing.

Kyle Connor’s future in Winnipeg seems safe; he’s one of the few high-profile players to not be dogged in the rumor mill over the past few years. He’s coming off an 80-point campaign, a bit of a step down from his 47-goal, 93-point season in 2021-22. While breaking the 90-point barrier could prove to be difficult again this year given the holes up front, you should still expect to see him putting up at least 80 again as he continues to play a crucial role in the team’s long-term future.

Whether Mark Scheifele stays in Winnipeg is up for debate, but the 30-year-old is still one of their most important players. When healthy, he can score upwards of 70 points – although his 68 points in 81 games was a bit of a step back compared to his 88-point pace the year before. The team’s alternate captain had a career-best 42 goals last year, and with Dubois and Wheeler gone, they’ll need another 40-goal season from the team’s most valuable sharpshooter up the middle.

The actual wild card is Nikolaj Ehlers, whom we’ll touch on later. When healthy, he’s an excellent top-six scoring threat. But that’s becoming rarer with each passing year. The Jets need him at full strength if they’re going to be a serious contender this year.

Beyond that, Adam Lowry looked great with 36 points last year, and 40-plus is possible. Nino Niederreiter is good for 40 points a year, and he played some of his best hockey last year after his trade to Winnipeg from Nashville. And then there’s Vilardi, who should start the year on Winnipeg’s first line. After a great 2022-23 in Los Angeles, he should hit 50 points this year with elevated responsibilities.

DEFENSEMEN

It’s Josh Morrissey or bust on this blueline. We know how good he is offensively, putting up career-best numbers as the No. 1 blueliner last year. Even bit of a regression this year would be fine because his impact is still big enough to this lineup. But after that, it trails behind. Neal Pionk is the second-best blueliner, and his defensive zone game has been a struggle the past few years. Hopes were high when the team acquired him in the Jacob Trouba deal, but he’s too much of a liability in his own zone to be the difference the team needs.

Dylan DeMelo and Nate Schmidt are solid defensive options, and Dylan Samberg does enough to intimidate opponents deeper in the lineup. Brenden Dillon is… not the greatest defenseman in the world, but he has size and loves to use every bit of it. And in his case, he’s coming off the best offensive season of his NHL career.

If there’s any room for improvement, it’s on the back end. The Jets have one of the best goaltenders in the game behind them, but look for them to spend significant time in their own zone.

GOALTENDING

Despite setting a career high in losses, Hellebuyck had one of the best seasons of his career last year. He posted a 37-25-2 record with four shutouts, with his .926 save percentage and 18.59 goals saved above average at 5-on-5 putting him in the top 10 among goalies with at least 50 games played. So if there was a position of strength, it was in the crease – status quo for the better part of a decade.

David Rittich was a below-average backup goaltender, but he’s gone now. The Jets brought back Laurent Brossoit for a second tour of duty, which comes at the right time. Brossoit helped Vegas win the Stanley Cup after posting a 7-0-3 record during the regular season, securing the starting role to kick off the playoffs before an injury took him out of play against Edmonton. Brossoit played some of his best hockey with Winnipeg during his three-year run, including putting up a .925 SV% in 21 games in 2018-19.

Winnipeg needs a guy like Brossoit with a proven track record as a reliable backup more than ever. Hellebuyck can’t keep playing 65-plus games and expect to be at full strength come playoff time. He looked out of his element in the playoffs after having to play most of the games to get the team in the postseason. A rested Hellebuyck can still win 30 games, no problem. Having Brossoit win another 15 would be huge.

COACHING

After stepping down from the Dallas Stars in 2022, Rick Bowness’ coaching career could have easily ended. He coached the original Winnipeg Jets in 1988-89, and managed to find work throughout the next four decades. He led Dallas to a surprise Stanley Cup final in 2019-20 before nearly shocking the Calgary Flames in the opening round two years later.

But the Jets needed an established voice to lead the club in 2022-23, and they brought Bowness in to get things going in the right direction. Bowness looked like a serious contender for the Jack Adams by the halfway point. But while the rest of the Central Division seemed to get better, the Jets became stagnant, eventually becoming one of the final teams to qualify for the postseason.

When everything fell apart against Vegas in the playoffs, Bowness said he was “so disappointed and disgusted” regarding the team’s effort against the eventual Stanley Cup champions. It was as candid as you could ask for from an NHL coach these days, and, in a way, the start of a new era as the club moved on from Dubois and Wheeler, among others.

While Bowness hasn’t had much success in the NHL, he knows how to make the most out of an average hockey lineup. This year will be another big test for the Jets, and perhaps the last real chance for Bowness to prove he’s the quality NHL coach many believe he still can be.

ROOKIES

The Jets made a big splash by snagging high-scoring winger Colby Barlow in the first round in 2023. With Rutger McGroarty, Chaz Lucius and Brad Lambert already in the system, the team has a stacked offensive group heading into the future. But none of them is ready yet, outside of maybe some spot duty for Lucius and Lambert.

Instead, this might be a make-it-or-break-it year for Ville Heinola, who isn’t actually a rookie anymore given he’s played 35 NHL games. We already know he wants out of Winnipeg, but he’ll need to put himself on display after putting up just one assist in 10 NHL games last year. Winnipeg’s blueline is a bit crowded, with the team likely employing a veteran-laden lineup for most of the season. There’s also Logan Stanley looking to prove himself too, so Heinola needs to have a mega season if he’s going to prove he’s more than just a dominant AHL defender.

BURNING QUESTIONS

1. Will Josh Morrissey build upon his breakout season? For a while last year, Morrissey was one of the frontrunners to win the Norris Trophy after exploding for 16 goals and 76 points. Given he had never had more than 37 points before, it was a remarkable breakthrough for the 28-year-old defender. But can he do it again? There’s no question he can hit 50 again, but is 70 a realistic goal going forward? Given how important he was to Winnipeg’s offense, both at 5-on-5 and on the power play, he should find himself in the top three in team scoring again.

2. Is this it for the Connor Hellebuyck, Mark Scheifele eras? The Jets have six pending UFAs, including a couple of key veterans. With reports suggesting Hellebuyck won’t re-sign with Winnipeg next summer, this could be the swan song for the best goaltender in franchise history. The 30-year-old has done so much for the team, winning the Vezina Trophy in 2020 and finishing as a finalist in 2018 and 2023. Easily one of the best goaltenders in the game today, he could be a rare in-season starting goalie trade target for a contending team looking to go all-in this year. For Scheifele, the second-highest-scoring player in franchise history since the relocation from Atlanta, rumors have been swirling for months now about his future. He says he doesn’t want to go anywhere, but if the Jets go scorched earth in the coming years, Scheifele will be one of the first to go. He has one year left on his deal with a modified no-trade clause – could he become a nice deadline pickup for someone? Or will he sign another deal with the only team he has ever repped? Either way, don’t expect the rumors to slow down any time soon.

3. Can Nikolaj Ehlers stay healthy? Ehlers has already dealt with some health concerns during training camp. When he’s at 100 percent, the 27-year-old is incredibly dangerous. But with just 154 games played out of a possible 220 over the past three years, you can see the issue. Can the Jets rely on Ehlers to hover around the 30-goal, 60-point mark again?

PREDICTION

It’s hard to have much confidence in the Jets this year, given all the questions about the team’s future. But the Jets are still a decent hockey team with some high-end players looking to keep this dream alive. While we’re not talking about a serious championship contender, they have an elite goaltender, a top-end blueliner and several forwards who can still produce.

But hockey fans love chaos. What will this lineup look like come March? Can you be confident in the team’s own confidence? The Jets must focus on being a difficult team to play against. They’re not afraid to land hits, and Elite Prospects lists the Jets as the second-biggest team in the NHL. They’ve also got a solid 1-2 goalie duo, giving them their best crease situation in quite some time. If they can finally trust Brossoit to take some of the load off of a healthy Hellebuyck, they might find a way to cause serious damage.

Still, it’s hard to view them as anything more than a team that squeaks into the final playoff spot and maybe gives a top team some fits in the first round. A playoff series victory would be excellent, but the fan base wants more after a decade of intense foreplay. Problem is? This could be the last dance for the team’s top stars.

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