2023 NHL Mock Draft: Post-lottery top 16 edition

Credit: Connor Bedard (Bob Frid-CHL)

Congratulations to the Chicago Blackhawks: the winners of the long-awaited Connor Bedard sweepstakes.

The NHL Draft lottery was late Monday evening, with Blackhawks snagging the first pick with the third-best odds at 11.5 percent. It’s the first time the team has selected first taking Patrick Kane in 2007, and the second time overall.

If you’ve followed Daily Faceoff this year, we’ve made it clear just how good of a prospect Connor Bedard is. Scouts have compared him to Connor Bedard for a few seasons now, and for a good reason. He can score better than anyone. He can hit. He can defend. He’s creative. Trying to pinpoint one specific flaw is a challenge.

For the other 10 teams in the Bedard race, Monday will feel like a disappointment. You don’t get generational players like that often – hence, generational. But the high-end of the 2023 NHL Draft is as good as we’ve seen it, with a handful of franchise-changing talent available with the first few picks next month.

Let’s be clear: you don’t draft for needs in the first round. Those needs can literally change over a matter of days during NHL free agency. You take the best player available. If there are two players your team likes, and it just happens that there’s a player that fits your need, you then might take the guy that fits a long-term gap.

With the top 16 determined after the NHL Draft lottery, here’s our latest mock draft for the 2023 selection:

1. Chicago Blackhawks: Connor Bedard, C (Regina, WHL)

Here’s your franchise-changer. You’ve heard it all before: Bedard is the best prospect since Connor McDavid. With over 70 goals and a massive advantage over the rest of the CHL in points, Bedard had one of the best junior seasons we’ve seen from a top prospect in decades. Add in a wicked World Junior Championship performance with Canada and it truly looks like Bedard is a superstar in the making.

2. Anaheim Ducks: Adam Fantilli, C (University of Michigan, NCAA)

Fantilli had a solid argument to go No. 1 any other year. The big, skilled forward won the NCAA’s Hobey Baker Award as the best men’s collegiate hockey player, something that a freshman has rarely done. Some scouts feel like he could have immediately stepped into the NHL this year, but he hasn’t decided whether to return to school or turn pro for next year. Either way, he’s going to be a No. 1 center.

3. Columbus Blue Jackets: Leo Carlsson, C (Orebro, SHL)

Carlsson combines speed, physicality and a penchant for highlight-reel plays. He has size, creates havoc in front of the net and held his own against quality competition in the SHL. The fact he spent the year playing against pro-quality players should allow him to take the next steps in his development with ease. The highest-scoring U-19 player in Sweden this year, Carlsson looks close to NHL-ready.

4. San Jose Sharks: Will Smith, C (USNTDP)

After putting up one of the best seasons in USNTDP history, Smith was one of the most consistent producers in 2022-23. Smith had 51 goals and 127 points, good for second behind linemate Gabe Perreault in a single season in USNTDP history. Smith was often the brains of the organization, a big reason why Jack Hughes (227 points) is the only player to register more than Smith’s 128 over a two-year span.

5. Montreal Canadiens: Ryan Leonard, LW (USNTDP)

Leonard is the type of player you win with. He had 51 goals and 94 points as part of the USNTDP’s dominant top line, and while he was the only one who didn’t break the 100-point barrier, he brought so much to every shift. He’s exceptionally aggressive, but never plays over the line to get himself into trouble. He has an excellent hockey IQ and some high-end talent to boot, too. Every team needs someone with Leonard’s skillset.

6. Arizona Coyotes: Matvei Michkov, C (Sochi, KHL)

This is the biggest wild card of the draft. Michkov is exceptionally talented, often compared in the same breath as Bedard over the past few years. His numbers in the KHL are among the best we’ve ever seen from a draft prospect, and he helped Sochi drastically down the stretch after getting loaned out from SKA St. Petersburg. But there are some big hurdles to overcome, including a KHL deal until 2026. A team willing to take a risk early could get their next big superstar, but given how often GMs get bounced in the NHL, will it be worth it in the short term? The Coyotes definitely should do this.

7. Philadelphia Flyers: David Reinbacher, D (Kloten, NL)

Not many people had Reinbacher as a first-round pick heading into the season. Now, most have Reinbacher as the best defenseman in the class. He put up excellent numbers in the top Swiss league, a division that hasn’t always been kind to younger blueliners. Reinbacher looked mature beyond his years this season and it won’t be long until he’s contending for significant playing time in the NHL.

8. Washington Capitals: Zach Benson, C (Winnipeg, WHL)

The Capitals would be getting their next star forward, someone with tremendous skill and speed in such a small package. Benson fell just short of the 100-point mark this year while proving why he was one of the most dangerous scoring threats in the WHL behind Bedard. He’s only 5-foot-10, but he’s strong, has a great release and his shift-to-shift effort level will never waver. Benson is going to be a big-time play driver.

9. Detroit Red Wings: Oliver Moore, C (USNTDP)

One of the best skaters in the draft, Moore was overshadowed by the pure talent at the top of the USNTDP’s lineup. But Moore still managed to be a standout every night, and one many scouts have high hopes for. Some scouts I’ve talked to think Moore has some untapped potential to become one of the better players in this draft class. He’s so quick, but knows how to use his speed to his advantage as a playmaker, too.

10. St. Louis Blues: Dalibor Dvorsky, C (AIK, Allsvenskan)

Coming off an incredible U-18 World Championship in which he received some MVP votes, Dvorsky finished off an up-and-down season the best way he could. Without Dvorsky’s efforts, Slovakia wasn’t coming close to making the bronze medal game, pushing Canada to the brink. Dvorsky can take over at times, but his play against men, which was nothing special, will knock him down some pegs.

11. Vancouver Canucks: Axel Sandin Pellikka, D (Skelleftea, SHL)

Sandin Pellikka was one of the best players at the U-18s, further cementing himself as one of the must-watch defensive prospects. There are very few high-end blueliners, so a team like Vancouver might be willing to take a chance on someone who can become a first-pairing defenseman. The Nucks have some decent blueline prospects, but Pellikka would be the best.

12. Arizona Coyotes (via OTT): Gabe Perreault, RW (USNTDP)

Perreault’s greatest concern this season was perceived reliance on his teammates to get stuff done. But you break major scoring records, especially when so few players have managed to do so. The biggest concern is his skating, but he plays a similar skilled offensive game to Lucas Raymond. Perreault will be a good top-six forward one day.

13. Buffalo Sabres: Colby Barlow, LW (Owen Sound, OHL)

One of the best pure shooters in the draft, Barlow would be an excellent option for the Sabres’ top six. He’s coming off a whopping 46-goal season as an OHL sophomore and has 76 over the past two seasons, the most of any draft-eligible OHLer. There’s room for his all-around game to grow, especially in defensive activations, but scoring clearly isn’t an issue.

14. Pittsburgh Penguins: Eduard Sale, RW (Brno, Czechia)

Inconsistency plagued Eduard Sale this year, but the highs were definitely high. He was one of the few players that stood out for the Czechs internationally, including at the U-18s last month. He used a benching midway through the world juniors as motivation and played his best hockey in the medal round, which was promising. After spending the past year playing against men, it’ll be interesting to see where, and how he plays next year. I just wish he’d find a way to consistently get more engaged in the play.

15. Nashville Predators: Riley Heidt, C (Prince George, WHL)

Heidt finished the season with a quiet U-18 tournament, but the potential here is still high. Heidt finished second behind Chase Wheatcroft for the Prince George scoring lead, with the pair sitting second and third, respectively for the most points in a single year for the Cougars. His play away from the puck can be questionable, but he’d be an excellent addition to a Preds group with decent young talent in the system.

16. Calgary Flames: Andrew Cristall, LW (Kewlona, WHL)

From a skill perspective, Cristall has everything going for him. His skating can be a bit of a disaster at points, but he’s near the top in the draft class in terms of pure skill. If he can get a defensively reliable center by his side, Cristall will have a good, prosperous career.

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