2023 Trade Deadline Countdown: What is the market for Mattias Ekholm?

Credit: © Steve Roberts-USA TODAY Sports

With less than two months remaining until the NHL’s March 3 trade deadline, we’re bringing you one deadline-focused story each day at Daily Faceoff.

Today we’re going to focus on Nashville Predators defenseman Mattias Ekholm, who was added to our Trade Targets board on Tuesday.

2023 Trade Deadline Countdown: 57 Days

MATTIAS EKHOLM
Defenseman, Nashville Predators
Shoots: Left
Age: 32
Height: 6’4″ | Weight: 215 lbs
Cap Hit: $6.25 million AAV
Term: 3 seasons remaining
Trade Clauses: None
Stats: 37 GP, 4 goals, 10 assists, 14 points, 21:40 avg TOI
Career: 12th season (all with Nashville), 699 GP, 21:48 avg TOI

Archetype and Ideal Role

Defensive Defenseman, Middle Pair

Ekholm was not ranked inside the Top 20 of Daily Faceoff‘s “Shutdown Defenseman” Archetype Rankings, but did receive consideration. That puts him in the next rung down of “defensive defensemen.”

Scouting Report

Ekholm is smart and durable. Over the last eight seasons, Ekholm has missed a grand total of 19 games. Credit his smarts in that regard. He’s perceived as a physical defenseman, but he is more efficient than physical. Ekholm uses his brain to anticipate pressure and put himself in good positions to use his reach and length to defend and push the opposition to the outside.

Over the last two seasons, only Roman Josi has logged more minutes than Ekholm in Nashville. He starts the majority of his shifts in the defensive zones and ends them by getting pucks out and into the offensive zone, which is exactly what you want in a defensive defenseman. He does contribute offensively, doing well at getting shots through from the blueline, which create rebounds and second-chance opportunities for his teammates. He has 37 points in all situations over the last two seasons, which is 57th in the league over that span among defensemen. He keeps it simple and gives his more offensively gifted forwards a slightly better chance in the offensive zone.

However, rival front offices have identified some concerns in his skating and mobility. Ekholm does not have the quickest first three steps, and that hinders his ability to accelerate quickly to disrupt offense when things break down, or when he has to attack through the neutral zone. Specifically, his lateral mobility – moving left to right – and his ability to turn are not ideal. That makes his gap control on the rush fairly pedestrian and he tends to become a player who more often that not gives up the blueline, backs in, and relies heavily on his reach and length to defend.

Ekholm does not fall into the ‘puck mover’ category. He can use his 6-foot-4 frame to shield the puck from attacks and make simple, five or 10-foot plays with the puck, but he lacks the deception to find teammates through attacking layers.

Overall, at this stage of his career, Ekholm is viewed as a reliable 5-on-5 middle pair defender.

Potential Fits

Edmonton Oilers: The Oilers are looking for a left-shooting defenseman to round out their roster into a true Stanley Cup contender. Ekholm has the size and ability to be a steadying influence. Is he the best stylistic fit? The Oilers have the assets, but they don’t have the cap space and may not want to lock into three more years of Ekholm.
New York Rangers: The Rangers’ primary objective is still a top-six forward addition. But when you think about New York’s defense corps, Ekholm is probably exactly the type of stylistic need to play with a mostly young and still developing back end.
Toronto Maple Leafs: Ekholm is likely a longshot in Toronto, who likely will be in the defense market. He is essentially Jake Muzzin 2.0 but more expensive, plus the considerable asset spend to acquire him.
Florida Panthers: Ekholm could make sense in Florida as an option to rebalance their roster, but the timing doesn’t work. Why would the Cats get entangled with Ekholm before getting a complete picture of what’s available this summer?

Sizing up the Market

Other defensemen available: LD Jakob Chychrun (Arizona), RD John Klingberg (Anaheim), LD Vladislav Gavrikov (Columbus), LD Shayne Gostisbehere (Arizona), LD Jake McCabe (Chicago), RD Ryan Merkley (San Jose).

Potentially available defensemen: RD Luke Schenn (Vancouver), LD Cam Fowler (Anaheim), LD Niko Mikkola (St. Louis), LD Jaycob Megna (San Jose), RD Sean Walker (Los Angeles), LD Carson Soucy (Seattle).

Pending free agents this summer: LD John Klingberg, RD Matt Dumba, LD Dmitry Orlov, RD Damon Severson, LD Brian Dumoulin, LD Shayne Gostisbehere, LD Carson Soucy, LD Ian Cole, RD Nick Jensen.

Comparable Trade Returns

Floor: Ryan Ellis to Philadelphia (2021)

July 17, 2021
To Philadelphia: D Ryan Ellis (5 seasons remaining at $6.25 million AAV)
To Nashville: D Philippe Myers, F Nolan Patrick
(No salary retained)

This trade likely offers some insight into what the floor should be to acquire Ekholm. There are some potential parallels in that Nashville was looking for more cap flexibility and Ellis was traded to a team that wanted to contend. The return was imperfect because of the contract. Ellis had the same exact cap hit as Ekholm, but was far less durable dealing with multiple injuries. He fetched Myers, who seemed to be trending in the right direction at the time, and Patrick, who was only a few years removed from his No. 2 overall selection.

It’s a trade that has worked out poorly for both teams, but more so the Flyers, who are stuck paying Ellis. Myers hasn’t panned out, including a recent rejuvenation attempt by Tampa Bay. Patrick has played 25 games with the Golden Knights and his career may never resume with post-concussion issues.

Ellis has played a grand total of four games with the Flyers, unlikely able to resume his career as a result of a rare torn psoas muscle in his core.

Midpoint: Nate Schmidt to Winnipeg (2021)

July 27, 2021
To Winnipeg: D Nate Schmidt (4 seasons remaining, $5.95 million AAV)
To Vancouver: 2022 3rd Round Pick (79th overall)
(No salary retained)

This is a decent comparable in the sense that Schmidt had significant term on his contract, was north of 30 years old at the time of the deal, and earned a similar salary. Although they’re a different style of defenseman, Ekholm and Schmidt both roughly play the same number of minutes per game in their careers. Ekholm has a slightly higher career points-per-game (0.38 to 0.35) than Schmidt. It’s not a perfect comparable because Schmidt was a depressed asset having already been traded once as a cap casualty from Vegas and was coming off a down season.

Ceiling: Mark Giordano to Toronto (2022)

March 20, 2022
To Toronto: D Mark Giordano (pending free agent, $6.75 million AAV), Colin Blackwell
To Seattle: 2022 2nd Round Pick, 2023 2nd Round Pick, 2024 3rd Round Pick
(Seattle retained 50 percent of Giordano’s $6.75 million)

This is not exactly an apples-to-apples comparable because Giordano was a rental. In this case, Blackwell likely accounted for the third-round pick and retention, so we’re essentially able to isolate the deal as Giordano for two second-round picks. This type of return would very likely entice Nashville, but the acquiring team would have to have the space and think even though Ekholm is likely declining on the age curve chart, that he’d still be an effective player. If entering a rebuild or retool, Nashville probably isn’t keen on retaining any portion for each of the next three years.

Summary

Ekholm’s market will be fascinating to monitor. He will be 36 when his deal ends and there is no cookie cutter precedent for cost of a player in his situation. Some teams may view him as an effective but fading defender that is overpaid and insist Nashville either take back a bad contract or retain salary. Another might see him as a decent short-term fit needed to get over the hump and not worry about the remaining years on his deal. Will another be willing to pay a premium? It only takes one.