2023 UFA All-Value Team: Which free agents could outperform their projected AAVs this summer?

Credit: Max Pacioretty (© James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports)

The Stanley Cup Final is now in the rearview mirror, with the Vegas Golden Knights hoisting the chalice for the first time in their six-season history. Now all 32 teams – yes, even the Golden Knights – shift their focus to the offseason. The NHL Draft is just two weeks away, while free agency begins in 17 days.

The salary cap is projected to rise by just $1 million this season as the players have a bit more escrow debt to pay off dating back to the pandemic. That means bargain hunting will be a prudent exercise in free agency. Which UFAs might turn nice profits relative to their projected values?

I present to you the NHL’s 2023 UFA All-Value Team, with contract projections from AFP Analytics, who were very close to nailing Damon Severson’s AAV before he signed his eight-year deal last week.

THE ALL-VALUE TEAM

Forward: Connor Brown (WSH)

AFP projection: 4 x $3.3M

Brown was limited to just four games this season because of an ACL injury that required reconstructive surgery to correct. The projected recovery time was six to eight months, and the injury occurred in mid-October, so he’s expected to be fully healthy for training camp. The last full-season version of Brown was an effective and versatile top-six forward who was also quite a threat while shorthanded. He led the league with five shorties in 2020-21. He averages a useful 16 goals and 40 points per 82 games in his career and still has plenty to give at 29 years old. His injury presents a possible buy-low opportunity.

Forward: Jesper Fast (CAR)

AFP projection: 2 x $2.3M

Fast will never be an elite or even an above-average scorer, really. He has never topped 14 goals or 34 points in a season. But he’s such a great defensive forward, penalty killer and forechecker. He carries a reputation as one of the most consistently beloved players in the league by his own teammates, too. His game is ideal for a contender’s third line, and he elevated his effort for six goals and nine points across 14 playoff games this season.

Forward: Max Pacioretty (CAR)

AFP projection: 1 x $1.5M

Pacioretty re-tore his Achilles tendon after just five games with the Hurricanes in 2023-24. During that brief stretch, he scored three goals and showed how effective he can still be as a top-line goal scorer in the NHL. His recovery timeline gives him a shot to be ready by the start of next season or at least early in the season. He won’t turn 35 until November, but because he has 400-plus NHL games to his name and is coming off a long-term injury, the collective bargaining agreement stipulates that a team could sign him at a league-minimum cap hit with performance bonuses that wouldn’t count against the cap until he following season.

Defense: Erik Gustafsson (TOR)

AFP projection: 3 x $3.75M

The Leafs barely used Gustafsson after acquiring him at the 2023 Trade Deadline. His ice time dipped by almost five minutes after he came over from the Washington Capitals, and he only dressed for two playoff games. That’s what creates the value here. Gustafsson was highly effective as an offensive defenseman filling in for injured John Carlson in D.C. for much of 2022-23. Among 211 defensemen who played at least 500 minutes at 5-on-5 this season, Gustafsson sat 20^th in goals per 60 and 26^th in points per 60. He could be a steal with the ability to be a positive offensive play driver and put up 40-plus points next season.

Defense: Luke Schenn (TOR)

AFP projection: 1 x $1.6M

Is it possible the attention Schenn attracted by finishing his season in Toronto will remove the possibility of a bargain AAV? Not when you factor in that he played his previous deal on a $850,000 AAV. Even if he were to double that number on his next contract, he could be a valuable spend. On top of the leadership intangibles he brought to the Leafs’ dressing room during the 2023 playoffs, he was their best 5-on-5 defender, bringing menacing physical play and poise with the puck under pressure. The Leafs outscored opponents 10-2 with him on the ice at 5-on-5 this postseason.

Goaltender: Joonas Korpisalo (LA)

AFP projection: 2 x $2.6M

Recency bias can be our friend with Korpisalo. A year ago, he was fresh off surgery for a hip injury that had all but ruined him as an NHL goalie. A healthy Korpisalo in 2022-23 was easily the best version of him since the 2019-20 playoffs, and he was dynamite for the L.A. Kings in 11 starts after they traded for him, compiling a .921 save percentage. He didn’t get the job done in Round 1 of the playoffs, however, tumbling to an .892 SV%. That was the lasting memory of him from 2022-23, and I wonder if it could keep his price down to a reasonable number. He struggled in six-game playoff sample size. Across his 39-game sample during the regular season, he sat top-five in the NHL in goals saved above average per 60. He played like a star No. 1 for much of 2022-23 but won’t necessarily be paid like one in 2023-24. Bargain alert.

All-Value UFA Second Team

F – Noel Acciari
F – Garnet Hathaway
F – James van Riemsdyk
D – Scott Mayfield
D – Carson Soucy
G – Semyon Varlamov

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