2024-25 NHL team preview: Colorado Avalanche

Credit: 5Mar 5, 2022; Denver, Colorado, USA; Colorado Avalanche center Nathan MacKinnon (29) celebrates his goal with defenseman Cale Makar (8) in the second period against the Calgary Flames at Ball Arena. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

LAST SEASON

The Avalanche’s title defense in 2022-23 had not gone as planned. Following their Stanley Cup win in 2021-22, they were shockingly bounced in Round 1 of the playoffs by the plucky Seattle Kraken, who were playing their first series in franchise history. For a second consecutive summer, the Avalanche had lost their No. 2 center, with J.T. Compher bolting for the Detroit Red Wings, and they’d once again be playing the year without captain Gabriel Landeskog as he worked through a career-threatening knee injury.

Still, they felt confident they could push for a championship in 2023-24 as long as all-world superstars Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar and Mikko Rantanen were leading them. MacKinnon delivered the best season of his career, playing all 82 games for the first time since 2018-19, and exploded for 140 points, finishing second in league scoring and capturing his long-coveted first Hart Trophy as league MVP. Makar remained an elite presence on defense, tallying a career-high 90 points and finishing as a Norris Trophy finalist for the fourth straight season. Rantanen delivered a second consecutive 100-point effort. Avs GM Chris MacFarland also made a few interesting bets that paid off. Pairing left winger Jonathan Drouin with his old major junior teammate MacKinnon worked beautifully and revived Drouin’s career. In a bold 1-for-1 trade at the deadline, the Avs sacrificed talented but injury-prone blueliner Bowen Byram to solve their No. 2 center problem with Casey Mittelstadt.

Still, while the Avalanche delivered another 50-win season, their lack of depth hurt them, particularly when crucial two-way forward Valeri Nichushkin, who had scored nine goals through eight playoff games, landed in stage 3 of the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program for substance abuse, earning a six-month suspension. Colorado’s superstars could only do so much, and the mighty Dallas Stars proved too deep, ousting the Avs in Round 2.

Instead of spending their offseason fortifying their depth, the Avs were mostly forced to sit on their hands. They were rammed up against the cap, having to maintain room for Nichushkin’s $6.125 million cap hit once he returns and also waiting on a potential Landeskog comeback. That meant MacFarland had to nickel-and-dime things with cheap buy-low signings. On paper, it doesn’t feel like Colorado has solved its depth problem. Is this powerhouse trending in the wrong direction?

KEY ADDITIONS & DEPARTURES

Additions

Erik Brannstrom, D
Oliver Kylington, D
Parker Kelly, LW
Calvin de Haan, D
Jacob MacDonald, D
Kevin Mandolese, G
T.J. Tynan, C
Matthew Phillips, RW
Calle Rosen, D

Departures

Sean Walker, D (Car)
Yakov Trenin, C (Min)
Zach Parise, LW (retired)
Andrew Cogliano, LW (retired)
Jack Johnson, D (CBJ)
Pavel Francouz, G (retired)
Brandon Duhaime, LW (Wsh)
Ivan Prosvetov, G (KHL)
Riley Tufte, LW (Bos)
Caleb Jones, D (LA)
Fredrik Olofsson, LW (Swiss NL)

OFFENSE

You don’t need depth to fill the net in the regular season. The Avs averaged an NHL-best 3.68 goals per game and iced the NHL’s fifth-best power play last season, powered by the ferocious MacKinnon. When he’s out there, typically with Drouin on his left and Rantanen on his right, their opponents can only lay and pray. Colorado generated 60.85 percent of the scoring chances and scored 61.82 percent of the goals with that line on the ice at 5-on-5 last season.

The huge question mark in the forward group is: where does the support scoring come from this time around? The two other top-six forwards Colorado can count on are Artturi Lehkonen, who averages 28 goals per 82 games as an Av, and Mittelstadt, who was somewhat of a revelation after arriving from the Buffalo Sabres in the trade. As solid as he looked in the playmaking No. 2 center role late in the regular season, he levelled up even more in the playoffs, picking up nine points in 11 games with a 58.64 percent expected goal share at 5-on-5. Mittelstadt was a highly pedigreed prospect coming up with the Sabres; this was what he was always supposed to become. The Avs saw enough to extend him for three years at a $5.75 million AAV.

Behind those forwards, there may or may not be a steep drop off in production. It all depends on Landeskog and Nichushkin. The fact MacFarland spent so conservatively this offseason tells us he was looking ahead to cap compliance because expects to have both in the lineup eventually. If Colorado gets even one of them back, it could change the team’s outlook dramatically.

If Colorado can’t count on those two key forwards, it will have to hope for increased depth scoring from a players like Ross Colton and Miles Wood – or for one of its prospects to step up. The name most likely to run with an opportunity in a scoring role is Nikolai Kovalenko, who was a productive KHL scorer but is unproven in North America.

Of course, the Avs will also fall back on offense from their defense. The Makar/Devon Toews tandem remains a driving engine. Makar is the second-fastest defenseman in NHL history to reach 300 points and has a Hall of Fame induction’s worth of accomplishments already by age 25. One of these years, he’ll score 100 points.

DEFENSE

The Avs aren’t quite the elite defensive group they were in their 2022 Stanley Cup year. They were middle of the pack at preventing goals last season. That could partially be blamed on their goaltending, but they also graded out as merely average in metrics independent of their goaltending, including shots, shot attempts and expected goals against at 5-on-5. As currently constructed, the Avs are built to outscore their problems, a strategy that got them past the Winnipeg Jets in Round 1 last spring but no further. Even the all-world pairing of Toews and Makar, which might end up being Canada’s top duo at the 4 Nations Face-Off, wasn’t quite itself if you squinted close enough. They still tilted the play in Colorado’s favor, but the Avs actually had a higher scoring-chance differential without them on the ice. That partially reflects them being tasked with difficult matchups, but the point here is simply that the Avs’ top D-men were more of a break-even defensive unit last year instead of a dominant shutdown tandem.

With big trade deadline addition Sean Walker leaving as a UFA, the depth beyond Toews, Makar, Samuel Girard and Josh Manson will be tested. The Avs are hoping to hit a home run similar to what they did with Drouin by attempting to revive the careers of two talented puck movers in Erik Brannstrom and Oliver Kylington. Brannstrom, the centerpiece the Ottawa Senators received in the 2019 Mark Stone trade, didn’t blossom into the No. 1 he was supposed to be but did drive the play effectively in sheltered matchups. Kylington was excellent in his last full season with Calgary but missed a season and a half working on his mental health and wasn’t quite as effective upon returning. Still, considering they are 24 and 27, respectively, have both shown interesting upside and take up a combined $1.95 million in cap space, they could be brilliant bets by MacFarland. If they don’t pan out, 33-year-old veteran stay-at-homer Calvin de Haan is the insurance addition.

GOALTENDING

Colorado’s goaltending feels like one of the league’s bigger wild cards this season. Alexandar Georgiev is two seasons into his tenure as Colorado’s starting netminder, during which he’s two for two leading the NHL in wins. But his performance year over year changed dramatically. In 2022-23 he ranked in the top third of the league in 5-on-5 goals saved above expected per 60 and finished sixth in the Vezina Trophy vote. Last year, he graded out as one of the league’s weakest starters, dropping from 15^th to 38th in goals save above expected per 60. His .897 save percentage was a career low, and he was worse in the playoffs, posting an .894 mark.

Enter Justus Annunen, the Avs’ top puck-stopping prospect, who badly outplayed Georgiev in limited duty last year, going 8-4-1 with a .928 save percentage across 14 appearances. Whether Annunen overtakes Georgiev for the No. 1 job or not, Annunen will play more going forward. Georgiev led the NHL in minutes last season and ran out of gas, particularly in April when he posted an .853 SV%. Not only will the Avs use Annunen to keep Georgiev fresher, but a larger sample size will show them what they have in Annunen, who was considered a good, not great prospect before breaking into the league.

And if both netminders falter by winter, does MacFarland go hunting for an upgrade? Georgiev is in the final year of his contract and isn’t likely to sign an extension during the season given his shaky performance.

COACHING

Jared Bednar enters his ninth season behind Colorado’s bench, making his tenure the third longest in the league behind Jon Cooper of the Tampa Bay Lightning and Mike Sullivan of the Pittsburgh Penguins. Among coaches with at least 500 games, Bednar is one of 12 in NHL history with a points percentage of .600 or better. He’s known as a relatable players’ coach who is poised in high-pressure situations and has an innate ability to manage different personalities on a team with major star power. As a 2022 Stanley Cup champ, his job is as safe as anyone’s in the league. That said, he has only taken Colorado past Round 2 of the playoffs once, so some organizational restlessness could set in if the Avs fall short of expectations for a third consecutive campaign.

ROOKIES

Nikolai Kovalenko is the son of Andrei Kovalenko, who played for the Quebec Nordiques and Avs and was sent to Montreal in the legendary trade that brought Patrick Roy to Denver. Nikolai broke out over the previous couple seasons in the KHL and has a major opportunity to contribute in a scoring role while Nichushkin and Landeskog are out. Like Makar, Kovalenko is the rare prospect to play in the postseason before the regular season. He saw two games of action for Colorado last spring.

Keep a close eye on center Calum Ritchie, the team’s top prospect by far. He’s coming off a dominant season with OHL Oshawa and, given Colorado’s depth woes, has some runway to make a splash during training camp. If he doesn’t stick with the team or only plays a nine-game trial, he’ll return to the OHL and try to put together a banner season.

BURNING QUESTIONS

1. Is Gabriel Landeskog really back? Landeskog ranks among the NHL’s most beloved and respected leaders. Everyone would love to see him back. But he has not played a competitive hockey game in more than two years and has had two knee surgeries since then, including a cartilage replacement procedure. Bednar recently indicated the Avalanche hope to get their captain back relatively early in the season – but also admitted they’re “anxious” about it. No one knows how – and if – Landeskog’s knee will respond to game situations.

2. Has Valeri Nichushkin played his final game with the Avalanche? When Nichushkin landed in stage 3 of the player assistance program in May, MacFarland indicated the team had no plans to terminate Nichushkin’s contract. If he’s able to get his life together and prove his trustworthiness to the club, it appears they’ll welcome him back. He is one of their vital cogs, contributing timely scoring and 200-foot intelligence. If he slips again and ends up in stage 4 of the program, it’s a one-year suspension without pay and no guarantee of reinstatement. If Nichushkin makes it back in the late fall, it will almost certainly represent his final chance with Colorado and perhaps the NHL in general.

3. Is Colorado’s Stanley Cup window beginning to close? Imagine a scenario in which Landeskog and Nichushkin (a) don’t make it back or (b) do make it back but aren’t what they were. The depth around MacKinnon, Makar and Rantanen has dwindled, and there’s a bit of an age gap before we can realistically expect prospects like Ritchie to become high-impact contributors. When a Stanley Cup contender peaks, the comedown usually includes remaining competitive but bowing out of the playoffs early for a few years. Coming off first- and second-round exits, the Avs have a lot to prove this season. Are they still one of the Western Conference’s alpha dogs?

PREDICTION

The Avalanche’s offseason transaction list tells us they were as static as any team in the league, hamstrung as they awaited the returns of two stars. As currently constructed, this feels very much like the same team as last year’s aside from a few potential diamond-the-rough signings. We know the superstar brigade will keep the Avs north of 100 points, but whether they get back into the deeper playoff rounds will depend on Landeskog, Nichushkin and their goaltending.

Advanced stats courtesy of Natural Stat Trick and Money Puck

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