2024 Conn Smythe Trophy power rankings: Evan Bouchard leads the way entering the Stanley Cup Final

Mike Gould
Mike Gould
2024 Conn Smythe Trophy power rankings: Evan Bouchard leads the way entering the Stanley Cup Final
Credit: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

Three rounds down, one to go.

Only two teams remain in this year’s Stanley Cup Playoffs. Starting on Saturday, the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers will go head-to-head in a fierce battle for what would be a long-awaited championship for both teams.

The Oilers haven’t won the Cup since 1990, when their decade-long dynasty drew to a close. The Panthers entered the league three years later and remain in search of their first title. One long drought is guaranteed to end this spring.

While it’s tough to say whether Edmonton or Florida will end up on top in the end — both teams have been excellent in these playoffs — the race for the Conn Smythe Trophy is beginning to be more defined. We’ve been keeping track of the Playoff MVP race throughout the spring, and with only two teams left, the number of realistic candidates has dwindled down into the single digits.

The Oilers have gotten to this point due in large part to their superstars. The Panthers have been bolstered by their balanced attack. Both teams have plenty of Conn Smythe candidates, but get ready for a bit of a lopsided list …

1. Evan Bouchard, Edmonton Oilers

Rank after second round: 4th

Like the Panthers, the Oilers have won 12 games through three rounds — after all, that’s how many you need to win to get to this point. Evan Bouchard has either scored or set up the game-winning goals in nine of them. He’s been a staggering presence on the blueline for an Oilers team that hasn’t been renowned for its defensemen since the Paul Coffey years. There’s an extremely strong case to be made that, after consistently failing to meet expectations in the earlier years of their current core, the Oilers have finally gotten back to the Stanley Cup Final largely because Bouchard arrived to put them over the top. Through 18 games with the Oilers in these playoffs, Bouchard has six goals and 27 points. He’s having one of the best playoff runs by any defenseman in years, if not decades. He’s number one with a bullet.

2. Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers

Rank after second round: 1st

After finishing atop our overall list heading into the Conference Finals, Leon Draisaitl finds himself in second place now through no fault of his own. It’s moreso a testament to how much Bouchard has elevated his game as the playoffs have worn on. That said, Draisaitl was merely okay in the Oilers’ series win over Dallas, managing two goals and four points in six games and being held off the scoreboard entirely in the Stars’ back-to-back victories in Games 2 and 3. He’s still arguably the strongest playoff performer still standing this year, but with Bouchard now just one point behind him, Draisaitl will need to have a huge Stanley Cup Final performance to reclaim the top spot. If he torches the Panthers like he did the Vancouver Canucks in Round 2, he might just get there in the end.

3. Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers

Rank after second round: 8th

Even though he’s currently the third-strongest Conn Smythe candidate on his own team, it’s hard to say Connor McDavid won’t end up at No. 1 overall by the time all this is over. Yes, he only has five goals in 18 games these playoffs, but the goals he has scored have been pretty incredible — Miro Heiskanen is still trying to figure out where he went on that one play in Game 6 — and he’s been logging a ton of minutes all along. Adding McDavid’s 26 assists to his five goals gives him 31 points, which is more than anyone this postseason. It speaks volumes about how overwhelmingly productive Edmonton’s top end has been this spring that a player of McDavid’s caliber isn’t the runaway playoff MVP favorite, but he’s still absolutely in the conversation.

4. Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers

Rank after second round: 6th

This year’s Frank J. Selke Trophy winner has been an absolute workhorse for the Panthers in these playoffs, racking up six goals and 17 points in 17 games while averaging 21:45 of ice time per night. The Panthers have completely steamrolled their opponents with their captain on the ice this spring, controlling 60.72 percent of the 5-on-5 expected goals — and shooting an unsustainably low 6.43 percent (via Natural Stat Trick). It says a lot about how dominant Aleksander Barkov is that the Panthers have reached their second consecutive Stanley Cup Final with their captain not getting his usual bounces. Part of that certainly has to do with the goaltenders Florida has faced to get to this point, most recently Igor Shesterkin. If Barkov and Co. can start to turn the tide against Stuart Skinner in Round 4, look out.

5. Matthew Tkachuk, Florida Panthers

Rank after second round: 10th

Matthew Tkachuk is the Panthers’ leading playoff scorer entering the Stanley Cup Final, with 14 assists and 19 points to his name through 17 games this spring. Much like Barkov, he’s been extremely successful at driving play at 5-on-5, although he’s also enjoyed much more favorable shooting luck. However, for whatever reason, Panthers goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has struggled during Tkachuk’s shifts, posting an .883 save percentage with him on the ice at full strength. Tkachuk’s 59.40 expected goals percentage at 5-on-5 would rank second on the Oilers, behind only — you guessed it — Bouchard. The Panthers’ chances took a serious hit last year when he suffered a devastating sternum injury against the Vegas Golden Knights. A healthy Tkachuk makes the Panthers extremely formidable and all the more likely to capture their first championship.

6. Gustav Forsling, Florida Panthers

Three years ago, the Carolina Hurricanes waived Gustav Forsling without allowing him to play a single NHL game for them. The Florida Panthers pounced. It’s hard to say whether they knew at the time that they’d just picked up their future No. 1 defenseman for free, but that’s how it’s played out. Forsling has seamlessly filled the hole left by MacKenzie Weegar while developing into an underrated force at both ends of the ice. He’s been the oft-overlooked engine for this Panthers team in these playoffs, with his 11 points matching his plus-11 rating through 17 games. Forsling’s usage hasn’t been quite as overwhelming as it was when he logged more than 26 minutes a night last year, but he’s still averaging 23:18 — just six seconds back of Brandon Montour for the team lead. It’s not often any defenseman wins the Conn Smythe, let alone one who doesn’t score all that much, but Forsling has certainly earned consideration.

Honorable mentions: Zach Hyman, Edmonton Oilers; Carter Verhaeghe, Florida Panthers; Sam Reinhart, Florida Panthers; Sergei Bobrovsky, Florida Panthers

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