2025 Conn Smythe Trophy power rankings: Playoff MVP candidates entering the second round
The first round is all wrapped up, and it’s given us a fair share of entertaining games that will be worth a rewatch from time to time. It’s also given us plenty of spectacular performances from individual players, ones that have played a big role in their team advancing to the second round.
While the Stanley Cup is what teams play for, the Conn Smythe is also a massive honour for a player, indicating the importance to their team in winning the Cup (or as we saw last season, how close their play got their team to winning). So, with all of the great performances we’ve seen from some players thus far, how do they compare to each other?
Let’s dive into the current scope for the Conn Smythe Trophy and see who are the current frontrunners for the award. While the value of their performance will play the biggest factor in their ranking, the likelihood of their team winning it all and how much it stands compared to other teammates also played a role.
1. Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
Surprise, surprise, the reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner and de facto best player in the league finds himself at the top of the list. At this point in his career, McDavid is so good, it wouldn’t surprise anyone if he won the award even if the Oilers got bounced in the Western Conference Final.
While he had a mortal regular season, McDavid has stepped up his performance so far in the playoffs. There’s several instances where he’s put the Oilers on their back and carried them to a win, most notably the Oilers 4-0 comeback in Game 1 that eventually fell short. He has 11 points through 6 games, and while he doesn’t lead the playoffs in scoring, his current pace would actually give him three more points than last year’s Conn Smythe-winning performance in the same number of games.
What really puts him over the top is how much more top-heavy the Oilers are compared to last season. Yes, Leon Draisaitl exists (more on him in a minute), and Evan Bouchard has picked up his play, but Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman have taken steps back, and the depth surrounding them is older and slower. It’s not just McDavid’s skill that makes him a difference maker in the playoffs, his footspeed stands out on this team and is much more important this year. There’s a visual difference in the Oilers play when he’s on the ice vs. when he’s off the ice, and it’s why he stays on top for now.
2. Mikko Rantanen, Dallas Stars
If there’s anyone who’s on the same level as McDavid at this point of the playoffs, it’s Rantanen. He’s currently tied for the lead in playoff scoring, and all but one of those points came in the final three games of the Dallas Stars‘ first-round series against his former team, the Colorado Avalanche. That really plays into the clutch narrative that many like to apply to the Conn Smythe, especially with his Game 7 performance, where he drove the comeback to win the game and the series.
But two things are going against Rantanen compared to McDavid. First, those first four games where he was almost invisible hurt his case, especially when McDavid was more consistent. Along with that, there is the possibility for a lot more Conn Smythe threats on Dallas than Edmonton. McDavid’s competition is Draisaitl and maybe Bouchard. Roope Hintz and Jake Oettinger also had great series’ for Dallas, we’ve seen what Wyatt Johnston is capable of last season, and who knows what impact Jason Robertson and Miro Heiskanen can have on that race when they return. But for now, the player to beat on the Stars is Rantanen.
3. Kyle Connor, Winnipeg Jets
Connor seems like a surprising pick at first, especially this high up, but the more you look at it, it really shouldn’t be. Even if you want to ignore his performance in the series, Connor was the only big name on the Jets that played the entirety of the series as they fought tooth and nail to come out ahead against the St. Louis Blues. Gabriel Vilardi and Nikolaj Ehlers were hurt to start the series, Mark Scheifele and Josh Morrissey are currently hurt, and Connor Hellebuyck has been nowhere close to his true form.
So for the time being, Connor is a clear standout as the Jets’ MVP so far. He’s tied for the playoff scoring lead with 12 points, has been very consistent with points in six of the seven games, and even had three assists in that all-important Game 7 comeback win over the Blues. On top of that, his defensive play has seen some improvements, with some stickwork and instincts in the neutral and defensive zone that we haven’t seen from him in the past. Third may seem high for him, but the combination of both his play and there being less competition right now makes him a strong choice.
4. Leon Draisaitl, Edmonton Oilers
Draisaitl should be a strong possibility for the Conn Smythe in a vacuum. He’s tied for sixth in scoring (fifth among players still in the playoffs), and had several games where he was the standout as the Oilers came back from down 2-0 against the Los Angeles Kings. He’s even significantly improved his defensive game to the point where it played a role in the series win.
But like always, Draisaitl is stuck in the shadow of McDavid. McDavid was just that little bit better in the series, and just a little bit more consistent (Draisaitl had just one point in the final two games), and as long as he’s playing like that, it hurts Draisaitl’s chances. If he had a series like he did against the Kings in 2023 with 7 goals in 6 games, there’d be a much bigger debate, but for now, it’s McDavid’s spot to lose on the Oilers.
5. William Nylander, Toronto Maple Leafs
Nylander has a slight advantage over most other players eligible for this ranking because the Maple Leafs are technically the team closest to winning the Stanley Cup right now, being the only team to win a game in the second round thus far. That didn’t greatly factor in my ranking, but his performance in Game 1 against the Florida Panthers on Monday vaulted him onto the list, along with the fact that my original Leafs pick, Anthony Stolarz, seemingly set to miss a bit of time with the injury he sustained in the game.
There is some recency bias at play here between Nylander’s play in Game 1 of the second round and Game 6 against the Ottawa Senators with the four goals and six points. But that’s also made him the frontrunner of a core four that felt dead even before that point. Mitch Marner has been productive, but hasn’t exactly killed the narrative of him going quiet later in the series with just two assists in the final three games against Ottawa. And while both Auston Matthews and John Tavares have had their moments, it still feels like they have another gear left in them. At this point in time, Nylander feels like the best answer.
6. Frederik Andersen, Carolina Hurricanes
Andersen is the clear-cut choice for the Hurricanes, as he was nearly flawless when he played in the first round against the New Jersey Devils, and he should probably be a couple spots higher on this list. But the key word is “when he played”, as he got injured in Game 4, and his status for the second round still remains a mystery. Considering Andersen’s injury history, especially when he only played 22 games this season, it’s easy to have some hesitancy in projecting his value further down the playoffs.
But when Andersen has played, you could argue that he’s been the best goalie in the playoffs. He’s first in SV% (.936) and GSAx (6.89), and unlike what we’ve seen in previous playoff performances from him, he has yet to allow that soft, backbreaking goal. It also helps his case that the Hurricanes looked to be a bit more vulnerable once Pyotr Kochetkov had to hop into the crease. Kochetkov only allowed one goal in Game 4 (that drew the Devils within one for a bit), but the Canes also needed to score five goals to overcome his struggles in Game 5. We’ll have to see how much of a difference that plays against the Washington Capitals if Andersen isn’t back to start the second round.
7. Jake Oettinger, Dallas Stars
You could make a powerful case for Oettinger being the Stars’ best pick for the Conn Smythe over Rantanen. Oettinger’s been one of the best goaltenders so far in the playoffs with a .911 SV% and 4.52 GSAx through the first round. He has had to step up his game behind an already questionable Stars’ defense that’s missing Heiskanen. He’s also been a lot more consistent than Rantanen, with his only slip ups being his performances in Game 1 (four goals on 24 shots) and maybe Game 5 (five goals on 46 shots).
But, recency bias can play a strong role in voters minds, and while Oettinger has been really good all series long, the way that Rantanen stepped up in Games 5, 6 and 7 would tip the scales his way thus far. There’s certainly a chance that Oettinger’s consistency will win over voters throughout a long playoff run. But for now, it favours Rantanen.
8. Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers
So this is where we start to get into the next tier of Conn Smythe candidates. There are several players on these teams that you could make an argument for being in the running for the award, but at this point, these players might be the pick.
For the Panthers, that’s Barkov. Despite how well they played against the Tampa Bay Lightning, Florida lacks a clear-cut candidate, mainly because it was a great all-around team effort. All of their big scorers contributed a similar amount offensively, and Sergei Bobrovsky was good, but didn’t exactly carry the Panthers either.
But Barkov takes the spot due to his two-way play. His five points in six games is also a very solid argument for his candidacy, but the fact that he managed to hold the Lightning’s offensive trio of Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel to just three goals across 30+ minutes in five games is what really puts him over the top. You could make the same argument for Sam Reinhart, but when the two players have been apart, Barkov has been slightly better. For now, that’s enough, but don’t be surprised if a stronger choice emerges if Florida’s run continues beyond the second round.
9. Logan Thompson, Washington Capitals
There was some concern about how good Thompson would be for the Capitals in the playoffs, especially considering his struggles down the stretch But he managed to get back to the form that made him a strong Vezina candidate through the first two-thirds of the season. It wasn’t that his play was the difference between winning and losing in the first round, but he was just consistently really good against the Montreal Canadiens, and it shows in the numbers, as he sits second in save percentage (.923), and third in goals saved above expected (4.65).
But like the other players in this stage of the list, there are arguments for other Capitals. Alex Ovechkin is always a strong choice, especially with four goals in five games, and Dylan Strome is second behind McDavid in points per game in the playoffs thanks to his nine points. But for now, Thompson has held up his end of the bargain, especially early on when Sam Montembeault was keeping the Canadiens in the series at the other side of the rink.
10. William Karlsson, Vegas Golden Knights
The Golden Knights were the toughest team to pick a true frontrunner for the Conn Smythe. Their best scorers in Tomas Hertl, Jack Eichel, Mark Stone and Shea Theodore were all on par with each other, there weren’t a ton of standout performances offensively from their depth, and Adin Hill had a few too many struggles to get any consideration. If anything, Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and Filip Gustavsson may have been the three best players in that first-round series, and they played for the Minnesota Wild on the losing side.
That’s why, at this point, I lean towards William Karlsson, at least for now. Two points in six games isn’t much to write home about, but his defensive play in that series played a huge role in the Golden Knights advancing. Kaprizov and Boldy were the biggest scoring threats in that series, and yet the Wild only scored twice in the nearly 45 5v5 minutes that Karlsson was on the ice against them. While we’re likely to see someone on Vegas break out offensively and make a stronger case if they go on a deeper run, Karlsson could just as easily further his case down the line if he has similar success against McDavid and Draisaitl in the second round.
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