2025 NHL Draft Lottery Odds: Which teams have the best chance to select first overall?
It’s that time of year again.
The 2025 NHL Draft will take place this June, with the lottery expected to happen a month earlier. This year is also expected to mark the first incarnation of a decentralized draft. For decades, management groups from all 32 teams – plus scouting departments, media, and over 100 draft hopefuls – would jam themselves into whichever arena (or, in last year’s case, The Sphere in Vegas) – was hosting the event to take in the festivities.
In 2025, though, teams will have war rooms back in their respective hometowns. While other specifics are still being worked on, only a handful of players are expected to be invited to the in-person portion of the draft, which is expected to take place in Los Angeles.
Unlike the past two years, which had clear No. 1 favorites in 2023’s Connor Bedard and 2024’s Macklin Celebrini, the 2025 NHL Draft is still wide open. Some scouts love the Cale Makar-like capabilities of Matthew Schaefer, while others prefer the hockey IQ and the ability to generate offense of James Hagens. Some others might even prefer a power forward like Porter Martone or the goal-scoring prowess of Michael Misa – it’s a truly exciting race to the top.
Most scouts still have Schaefer or Hagens as the No. 1, but the fact that there isn’t a runaway this year should make following this class even more exciting.
Teams can only win the lottery twice in a five-year span. It’s been rare to see a team with minuscule odds win it all, but it happened in 2020 when the New York Rangers won the lottery with the 14th-best odds and took Alexis Lafreniere.
We didn’t see any changes at the top last year, with all the lottery teams remaining in their draft spots. Two years ago, though, the Anaheim Ducks had the best odds of selecting first overall, with a 25.5 chance at the lottery. Instead, the Chicago Blackhawks – sitting third at 11.5 – earned the honor of drafting Bedard with the first pick, with the Columbus Blue Jackets falling from second to third.
Key Dates:
- End of Regular Season: April 17
- NHL Draft Lottery: TBA
- NHL Draft Combine: June 1-7 at the LECOM Harborcenter in Buffalo, N.Y.
- NHL Draft: TBA
Projected Top 5 Prospects
- Matthew Schaefer, D (Erie Otters)
- James Hagens, C (Boston College)
- Michael Misa, C (Saginaw Spirit)
Porter Martone, RW (Brampton Steelheads) - Victor Eklund, LW (Djurgårdens IF)
2025 NHL Draft Lottery Odds
Games completed as of 4 Nations Face-Off break
| Rank | Team | Record | Pts. % | Lottery Odds |
| 1 | San Jose Sharks | 15-35-7 | .325 | 25.5% |
| 2 | Chicago Blackhawks | 17-31-7 | .375 | 13.5% |
| 3 | Nashville Predators | 19-28-7 | .417 | 11.5% |
| 4 | Buffalo Sabres | 22-27-5 | .454 | 9.5% |
| 5 | Seattle Kraken | 24-29-4 | .456 | 8.5% |
| 6 | Philadelphia Flyers | 24-26-7 | .482 | 7.5% |
| 7 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 23-25-9 | .482 | 6.5% |
| 8 | St. Louis Blues | 25-26-9 | .491 | 6.0% |
| 9 | Montreal Canadiens | 25-26-5 | .491 | 5.0% |
| 10 | Anaheim Ducks | 24-24-6 | .500 | 3.5% |
| 11 | Utah Hockey Club | 24-23-9 | .509 | 3.0% |
As a result of Draft Lottery rule changes made effective in 2021, a team may only move up a maximum of 10 spots from their finishing position. That means only the bottom 11 teams have a shot at the No. 1 overall pick.
Therefore, instead of the published odds, which indicate the 32nd-place team has an 18.5 percent chance – which was accurate when all 16 non-playoff teams had a crack at the No. 1 pick – the additional percentages from those five clubs are effectively applied to the 32nd place finisher.
*Denotes team is locked into their pre-lottery position.