2025 NHL Winter Classic betting preview (Dec. 31): Blues vs. Blackhawks odds
Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps the 2025 NHL Winter Classic between the St. Louis Blues and Chicago Blackhawks.
Blues vs. Blackhawks Odds
- St. Louis Blues Moneyline: -145
- Chicago Blackhawks Moneyline: +120
- Puck Line: Blues -1.5 (+180), Blackhawks +1.5 (-225)
- Game Total: 5.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Game odds via Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Blues (17-21 SU, 22-16 ATS, 14-21-3 O/U)
St. Louis enters the 2025 Winter Classic playing .500 hockey under new head coach Jim Montgomery, who took over on Nov. 25. At the time of the coaching change, the Blues held a 9-12-1 record and ranked 27th in five-on-five expected goals percentage, according to Evolving Hockey. Since then, St. Louis has improved to 13th in five-on-five expected goal share and has gone 8-8 straight-up under Montgomery.
The coaching change initially appeared to spark the Blues, as they won five of their first seven games and saw an uptick in scoring. However, that momentum has faded, with the team dropping seven of its last nine games and scoring two or fewer goals in five of its last eight. Montgomery was brought in to address the Blues’ scoring woes, but inconsistency remains an issue.
Despite their struggles, the Blues have been the fourth-most profitable road team on the moneyline this season. However, this matchup marks just the third time they’ll be road favorites all year. St. Louis has been favored six times this season, going 2-4 straight-up in those games.
Favorites have historically fared well in outdoor games, winning 26 of the 41 Winter Classic matchups since the first outdoor game in 2003. The Blues also have the upper hand in their recent head-to-head history with the Blackhawks, going 8-2 in their past 10 meetings.
Jordan Binnington will likely be in goal for the Blues on Tuesday. He’ll be looking to get right after earning just one win in his last seven starts. Binnington ranked 17th in goals saved above expected as of Dec. 5, but since then, he has fallen to 63rd in that category. The 31-year-old is 9-2-1 against Chicago in his career, though.
Handicapping the Blackhawks (12-25 SU, 18-19 ATS, 14-19-4 O/U)
Chicago also made a recent coaching change, parting ways with head coach Luke Richardson in his third season after the Blackhawks fell to an NHL-worst 8-16-2 record. Anders Sorensen, formerly the head coach of their minor league affiliate in Rockford, was promoted to interim head coach.
The early returns under Sorensen have been mixed. Chicago started 4-3 straight-up in its first seven games following the change, but defensive issues have persisted, with the team allowing four or more goals in four consecutive losses since. Despite their overall struggles, the Blackhawks have shown some promise at home, posting a 7-9 record on the season and going 3-2 at the United Center under Sorensen. A bettor placing one unit on Chicago to win every home game this season would be up nearly two units.
Being an underdog is familiar territory for Chicago. The Blackhawks have been underdogs in all but four games this season, including their last 11 home games, where they’ve managed a respectable 6-5 record straight-up. Home teams have won 21 of 41 outdoor games since 2003, though only five of those victories came as underdogs.
Statistically, Chicago remains one of the league’s weakest teams. Per Evolving Hockey, the Blackhawks rank 31st in expected goals, 32nd in shot attempts, and 31st in goal share across all situations. Offensively, they’re one of just four teams performing worse than St. Louis this season, with an even larger gap between the two teams on defense.
However, there are bright spots. Connor Bedard has started to shine under Sorensen, tallying five goals and eight assists in 11 games. This marks a significant improvement from his first 26 games under Richardson, where he managed just five goals and 14 assists.
In net, Petr Mrazek started the season strong according to Evolving Hockey’s expected goals model but has struggled recently, allowing nine goals above expected in his last six games. Backup Arvid Soderblom has been the more consistent performer overall, but Mrazek will get the start at Wrigley Field on Tuesday. Mrazek is 5-5 against the Blues in his career.
Best bet for the 2025 NHL Winter Classic
Outdoor games are challenging to handicap due to unpredictable weather and ice conditions. Many of these handicaps rely on anecdotal evidence rather than historical data. That’s why I focus on betting angles with statistical significance and repeatability.
- Dylan Holloway Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (+120) at Sports Interaction
Dylan Holloway has been impressive this season, tallying 13 goals and 11 assists in 34 games. Currently skating on the second line with Brayden Schenn and Jordan Kyrou, and contributing to the top power-play unit, Holloway is a key offensive piece. He ranks second on the Blues in scoring, third in points, and is among the team leaders in shots on goal.
The Blackhawks have allowed the fourth-most shots on goal in the league this season. Holloway has recorded three or more shots in 12 of his last 21 games and 16 of 34 games overall. With +120 odds for him to notch at least three shots on goal for the fifth consecutive game, this bet offers value, but bettors should shop around for the best odds.