2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Hurricanes vs. Panthers series preview
Carolina Hurricanes: 2nd in Metropolitan Division, 99 points, def. NJD in Round 1 (4-1), def. WSH in Round 2 (4-1)
Florida Panthers: 3rd in Atlantic Division, 98 points, def. TB in Round 1 (4-1), def. TOR in Round 2 (4-3)
Schedule (ET)
| Date | Game | Time |
| Tuesday, May 20 | 1. Florida at Carolina | 8 p.m. ET |
| Thursday, May 22 | 2. Florida at Carolina | 8 p.m. ET |
| Saturday, May 24 | 3. Carolina at Florida | 8 p.m. ET |
| Monday, May 26 | 4. Carolina at Florida | 8 p.m. ET |
| Wednesday, May 28 | 5. Florida at Carolina | 8 p.m. ET |
| Friday, May 30 | 6. Carolina at Florida | 8 p.m. ET |
| Sunday, June 1 | 7. Florida at Carolina | 8 p.m. ET |
The Skinny
For the second time in three years, the Eastern Conference will be decided by a series between the Hurricanes and the Panthers. When these two teams met two years ago, the Panthers were in a much different stage of their trajectory, seeming to be the plucky underdog team that had bounced the Boston Bruins and Toronto Maple Leafs. Meanwhile, the Canes were more or less in the same spot then as they are now, a consistently aggressive team that wears down their opponents but struggles to finish their chances. Despite Carolina being the more experienced team at the time, the Panthers swept the series, albeit in four close games.
This time around, the Panthers are an underdog only in their placement in the standings. Their 3-6-1 slide at the end of the season dropped them to third in the Atlantic Division, and they looked ripe for the picking at the hands of the Tampa Bay Lightning in the first round. But, Florida has clearly mastered the art of turning on its game in the playoffs, because it made quick work of the Lightning, and while they initially struggled with the Leafs, the Panthers proved to be too much in the end (their roster finally all being in the lineup for the first time since the trade deadline also helped). But make no mistake, this Panthers team is just as good as the one that won the Stanley Cup last year, if not better.
As for the Hurricanes, they thought they had finally solved their finishing problems by acquiring a game-breaking talent in Mikko Rantanen this year, but that went almost as poorly as you could imagine. In the aftermath of that, Carolina is now down a point-per-game player in Martin Necas and a solid depth scorer in Jack Drury, and they have Taylor Hall and Logan Stankoven in their place. The Canes have had solid depth scoring and great goaltending to get them this far, dispatching the New Jersey Devils and Washington Capitals in five games apiece, but the Panthers are going to be a much bigger challenge.
Will Florida continue to be a powerhouse and secure their third straight trip to the Stanley Cup Final? Or will the Hurricanes finally see their offense click at the right place at the right time against a team of their caliber and give them their first Cup Final appearance of the Rod Brind’Amour era (head coach edition)?
Head to Head
Carolina: 1-2-0
Florida: 2-1-0
The Hurricanes and Panthers met three times within the span of a month, starting with a home-and-home series at the end of November that was all Panthers, winning both games by scores of 6-0 and 6-3. The Canes responded by winning the series finale in their first game of 2025 by a score of 3-1, although that was a one-goal game in disguise thanks to Necas’ empty-net goal.
The good news for the Panthers if you want to look at the regular season results: they were one of just four teams to hold the 5v5 expected goals advantage against the Hurricanes with a 52.44% share, which is Carolina’s bread and butter. The good news for the Canes? All three games happened before they had even made the swing for Rantanen, meaning that both teams have changed significantly since they last met. Also, Andersen was hurt for all three games. You can probably throw out the game tape for these ones, as it won’t mean too much for this series.
Top Five Scorers
Carolina
Seth Jarvis, 10 points
Sebastian Aho, 10 points
Andrei Svechnikov, 9 points
Shayne Gostisbehere, 7 points
Taylor Hall/Jordan Martinook, 6 points
Florida
Brad Marchand, 12 points
Eetu Luostarinen, 12 points
Sam Reinhart, 11 points
Anton Lundell, 10 points
Aleksander Barkov, 10 points
X-Factor
The one problem that has consistently plagued the Hurricanes during their seven consecutive playoff appearances has been that desperate need for a finishing talent to convert on the chances they’re so good at creating. It’s a narrative that’s been told to death, but that’s for a reason. Carolina has tried to address it in the past with Max Pacioretty, Jake Guentzel, and Mikko Rantanen, but for one reason or another, it’s never worked out.
But one player who’s been on the team the entire time and has often been expected to be that finisher, but usually hasn’t been, is Svechnikov. Injuries and inconsistency have usually led him to being good, but not great in the postseason, with his best performance being the 2020 playoffs that saw him score four goals in six games.
So far in these playoffs, Svechnikov has begun to look like that guy and is finally producing at the rate the Canes were hoping for when they selected him second overall in 2018. He’s put up eight goals in 10 games thus far, including three game-winning goals and the last-minute series-winner against the Capitals. Of course, the real question is if he can continue this production against a legitimate Cup threat in the Panthers. If he can, it might just help the Canes where they need it most.
Offense
You can probably just copy and paste any preview of the Hurricanes’ offense of the last seven years at this point, because nothing has really changed. Despite being one of the best teams at generating chances (this year, the best with 3.04 per 60 minutes), that didn’t translate to actual goals with the ninth-ranked offense (3.24 goals per game), and their power play was good at neither, ranking 25th in conversion rate (18.7%) and tied for 15th in PP xGF/60 (8.67).
Carolina has seen slight improvements in that regard in the playoffs, with a 3.4 GFPG (sixth in the league), 3.4 5v5 xGF/60 (forst), a 28.1% PP% (fourth) and a 9.09 PP xGF/60 (seventh), but it also hasn’t been tested against a strong defense either.
Svechnikov’s great start through the first two rounds has already been pointed out, a massive reason for the offensive improvements. Beyond him, Carolina’s other two star players in Jarvis and Aho have been performing as expected and giving Svechnikov enough high-end support to create a strong 1-2-3 punch for their offense, particularly on the power play.
It also helps that the Canes have gotten a lot of contributions throughout the lineup. Hall (6 points) and Stankoven (5) aren’t performing like Rantanen is with the Dallas Stars in these playoffs but have proven to be reliable scorers, Jordan Martinook (6) and rookie Jackson Blake (5) have also contributed when needed, and even Jack Roslovic has been productive when in the lineup (4 points in 7 games). It’s been a one-man show on the blueline for Gostisbehere (7 points), but Jaccob Slavin (4), Dmitry Orlov (4), Brent Burns (3) and Sean Walker (3) have all had bits of offensive production as well.
What should be a concern for the Canes in terms of matching up against the Panthers’ offense is that Florida is also an elite team at creating chances (fourth in 5v5 xGF/60 with 2.72 and in PP xGF/60 with 9.56), but they can also finish those chances.
That didn’t happen in the regular season (15th in GF/GP with 3 and tied for 13th in PP% with 23.5%), but the playoffs have proven that the Panthers’ regular season results should probably be ignored, as through two rounds, they’re fourth in GF/GP (3.75) and fourth in 5v5 xGF/60 (2.86). Their power play has struggled with a 20.5% PP% and 7.62 PP xGF/60 (both in 10th), but you also know that they’re too talented to not be more successful.
As a result, so far most of the big boys have shown up on the scoresheet for the Panthers. Reinhart (11 points) and Barkov (10) have been relatively consistent through two rounds, Carter Verhaeghe (8) has rebounded from a disappointing regular season with his usual production, and Sam Bennett (6 goals, 9 points) has been a thorn in the side of his opponents with and without the puck. It feels like Matthew Tkachuk (9 points) can still take his game to another gear, but he’s still been great, just not his usual pesky self. That said, we don’t know how badly his injury from the 4 Nations Face-Off could still be affecting his game.
What’s really made the Panthers’ offense overwhelming for opponents has been the success of their third line of Luostarinen, Lundell and Marchand. While Florida’s top guns have been holding their own against the other teams’ best stars, this trio has feasted on the Lightning and Leafs’ bottom six opponents and played a massive factor when the Panthers have won. As a result, all three find themselves in the top five in scoring on the team, with Marchand and Luostarinen co-leading the team in scoring.
Florida’s offense has also succeeded because they’ve gotten a lot of production from their blueline. Nate Schmidt (7 points) has thrived against bottom six competition, Seth Jones (6) has been the Brandon Montour replacement that the Panthers needed (outside of power play success), Aaron Ekblad has been productive when he’s not suspended (6 points in 8 games), and even Dmitry Kulikov (4 points) has chipped in here and there. However, Florida will probably hope to get more out of Gustav Forsling (2 assists) going forward.
Defense
While the Hurricanes are known for being strong at creating and suppressing chances at both ends, that actually wasn’t the case during the regular season. Their defense was a lot more middling with a 2.8 GA/GP (10th in the league) and a 2.36 5v5 xGA/60 (ninth in the league), although they were still a strong penalty killing team with an 83.6% success rate (first) despite an 8.03 PK xGA/60 (12th).
Carolina’s 5v5 chance suppression struggles have continued in the playoffs thus far with just a 2.6 5v5 xGA/60 (ninth), but strong goaltending from Frederik Andersen has masked that, as the Canes have allowed just 1.8 GA/GP (first by a significant 0.62 margin). Their penalty killing has at least improved, as their 93.3% PK% (first) is backed by a 6.4 PK xGA/60 (third).
One big reason for the Canes’ defensive step back has been the unnoticed struggles of Slavin. Normally their best defensive defenseman, he’s allowed the most 5v5 xGA/60 among any Canes’ defenseman in the playoffs with 2.94. For now, it’s an issue that’s been hidden because he’s still keeping the puck out of the net with a 1.56 5v5 GA/60. Now, a lot of that can be attributed to carrying what’s left of Burns (2.75 5v5 xGA/60) while facing tough competition, but a team’s shutdown defenseman should probably be used more properly when the stakes are this high. At the very least, it’s allowed the rest of the top four to be sturdy in easier minutes when Slavin is off the ice, with rookie Alex Nikishin even seeing promising results in his 10:33 of ice time thus far alongside Dmitry Orlov.
Like Slavin, the usually defensively strong Jordan Staal has also struggled. He’s only kept opponents to 2.83 5v5 xGA/60, but that’s also come in the thankless role of shutting down the likes of Nico Hischier, Timo Meier and Alex Ovechkin, players that Staal at least managed to contain. That said, when a 36-year-old is playing in a very aggressive and tiring system, you have to wonder how much of a role fatigue is playing there.
Jarvis seems to have taken the Selke-caliber forward baton from Staal, maintaining good defensive results with a 2.52 5v5 xGA/60. Another usual shutdown option for the Canes in Martinook has also been good in the playoffs, sitting just ahead of Jarvis with a 2.5 xGA/60, which is surprising considering how much time he spends with Staal. However, the duo struggled in the first round, and while Staal’s problems stayed when they were apart, Martinook was much better on his own in that series.
While the Panthers’ toughness and tenacity has often been attributed to their recent success, the real driver has been their defense. Even with their regular season struggles, they still finished seventh in the league in GA/GP (2.72) to go along with the second-best 5v5 xGA/60 (2.22), while their penalty kill struggled slightly more with the 10th-best success rate in (80.7%), despite finishing fourth in PK xGA/60 (7.52). In the playoffs, it’s improved significantly, as they rank second across the board with a 2.42 GA/GP, an 89.5% PK%, 2.1 5v5 xGA/60, and 6.16 PK xGA/60.
The Panthers’ elite defense starts with the three-man wall that is Barkov, Reinhart and Forsling. Barkov has long gotten the recognition for his defensive game, but Reinhart has really rounded out his since joining Florida, which is why he joins Barkov as a Selke finalist this season. The two have done excellent so far against the likes of Nikita Kucherov and Auston Matthews with a 2.35 5v5 xGA/60 together. Forsling has struggled a bit more in that regard so far at 2.73, with the game being a bit more high-event than he would probably like, but we certainly know his ceiling after what he accomplished last season.
The luxury of having those three defensive pillars is that it gives them a ton of flexibility with matchups down the rest of their lineup, allowing them all to thrive defensively. As a result, the Verhaeghe-Bennett-Tkachuk line has managed a 2.23 5v5 xGA/60 against lighter top six competition, the Marchand-Lundell-Luostarinen line is at 1.74 against the bottom six, and everyone on the Panthers’ blueline has actually managed to finish with better defensive numbers than Forsling.
Goaltending
No player has proven to be more valuable to Hurricanes so far in this playoff run than Frederik Andersen. Most of that has been his own play, as he leads the playoffs in both save percentage with .937 and in 5v5 goals saved above expected with 11.6 by a wide margin. But his value was all the more noticeable in the first round when his injury put Pyotr Kochetkov in between the pipes, and the Russian wasn’t quite as good with a .900 SV% and -1.97 5v5 GSAx. Andersen has just looked more calm and composed in the crease, and up to this point has avoided allowing that weak, back-breaking goal that’s deflated his teams in the past.
On the Florida side, Sergei Bobrovsky has been a bit more inconsistent in these playoffs. Against Tampa, he didn’t really put in too many strong performances outside of a 19-save shutout, but after his struggles continued early on against Toronto, he started to pick his game up in the final four games. Still, a .901 SV% and a -2.81 5v5 GSAx doesn’t inspire confidence against the team with the best goaltending in the playoffs at this point. He’s proven that he has the ability to turn it on and look unstoppable, but we haven’t quite seen that this time around, and it may just be a product of being 36 years old. Vitek Vanecek is the backup, but likely won’t get any action outside of the garbage time of blowouts or if Bobrovsky gets hurt, so it’s all on Bob to figure things out.
Injuries
The Hurricanes missed Mark Jankowski for most of the second round, while Jalen Chatfield missed the decisive Game 5 victory, both with “undisclosed injuries,” but the team otherwise finds itself in great health. Chatfield is day-to-day but expected to play in Game 1, while there’s been no word on Jankowski’s status.
As for the Panthers, they find themselves with no injuries at all. You can speculate which players may still be dealing with lingering injuries from the regular season, or who’s gained new ones over the past month, but everyone is currently healthy after Evan Rodrigues returned to the lineup for Game 7. Anton Lundell did leave that game at one point, so there could be something there that gets announced ahead of Game 1, but he also returned for the third period. Welcome to the playoffs.
Intangibles
Can the Hurricanes beat a legitimate Cup threat? To this point, that hasn’t been the case. While they manage to make quick work of the weaker teams in the playoff pool, once they face a team at their level, they squander it. Whether it’s the Bruins, Lightning, New York Rangers or the Panthers, these types of opponents have always managed to figure out the Canes’ game and end their playoff run. The Devils and Capitals were not of that caliber this year, but the Panthers certainly will be.
On top of that, can the Hurricanes even win a game in the Conference Finals? Their previous two stints saw them get swept, so even just getting on the right foot in the third round has proven to be an issue.
It doesn’t help that the Panthers just finished showing us what they can do to teams with those mental doubts. They dismantled the Leafs with back-to-back 6-1 wins in Toronto and have likely destroyed their infamous core. This is an extremely experienced Panthers team that knows how to win it all now, and they seem poised to do it again. If the Hurricanes’ uncertainties show up in this series, it will probably be over as quickly as it was in 2023.
However, there is one hurdle that may hit the Panthers like a truck: fatigue. This is a team that has played a lot of hockey coming off back-to-back Cup Finals. We saw what happened to the Lightning during their third straight season there. They hit a wall in the 2022 Final and ultimately lost. Will this be the point where Florida hits a wall? Even then, the Hurricanes high-energy forecheck has done the same to their own players year after year. Perhaps the real question is, who hits a wall first?
Series Prediction
At the end of the day, the Hurricanes are one of those teams that find themselves in “we will doubt you until you prove us wrong” territory. It was the same with the Ovechkin-era Capitals until 2018 and continues to be the case with the Matthews-era Leafs, and it very much applies to this Canes group. They haven’t gotten over the hump and beaten a Cup contender in a playoff series yet, and until they do, they will be doubted.
It doesn’t help that the Panthers are about as locked in as we’ve seen them all season and are deeper than maybe even last year’s championship team. Carolina has the edge in net, but everywhere else, Florida has an answer, and in some instances, are forcing the Hurricanes to find an answer themselves (and even in net, we all know what Bobrovsky’s ceiling is).
Until the Hurricanes finally slay their demons, it’s hard to have confidence in them, especially in a season where they look like they have a weaker squad than previous years. While the risk of fatigue is certainly present for Florida, especially against this Carolina forecheck, the Panthers are just too good to not believe in right now. Then again, it also feels like it could be one of those weird seasons where the Canes somehow manage to pull it off.
Panthers in six games.
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