2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Stars vs. Oilers series preview

May 19, 2025, 13:52 EDT

2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs: Stars vs. Oilers series preview

Credit: Perry Nelson-Imagn Images

Dallas Stars: 2nd in Central Division, 106 points
Edmonton Oilers: 3rd in Pacific Division, 101 points

Schedule (ET)

Date	Game	Time (ET)
Wednesday, May 21	1. Edmonton at Dallas	8:00 p.m.
Friday, May 23	2. Edmonton at Dallas	8:00 p.m.
Sunday, May 25	3. Dallas at Edmonton	3:00 p.m.
Tuesday, May 27	4. Dallas at Edmonton	8:00 p.m.
Thursday, May 29	5. Edmonton at Dallas*	8:00 p.m.
Saturday, May 31	6. Dallas at Edmonton*	8:00 p.m.
Monday, June 2	7. Edmonton at Dallas*	8:00 p.m.

The Skinny

The Dallas Stars and Edmonton Oilers are set to participate in the first conference final rematch since 2021, an outcome few would have foreseen ahead of Round 1. Then, the Stars were riding an ugly seven-game skid into a matchup with a frightening Colorado Avalanche outfit, and it seemed the Los Angeles Kings might finally have the right mix to solve the Oilers. Our Daily Faceoff series previews actually picked both Dallas and Edmonton to bow out in the conference quarterfinals. Whoops.

Thanks to a strategy meltdown by Kings’ coach Jim Hiller and a historic series-clinching performance by Dallas’ Mikko Rantanen, both clubs just about advanced to the second round and dates with the Vegas Golden Knights and Winnipeg Jets, respectively. That’s when they shook off the cobwebs to flex their Cup credentials.

For Dallas, that meant waltzing into perhaps the loudest arena in the NHL to steal home ice in Game 1. Connor Hellebuyck never looked like himself away from the friendly confines of the Canada Life Centre, and just as the Jets seemed primed to send the series back to their raucous crowd for Game 7, Thomas Harley picked a corner in overtime to end their season. With Rantanen in peerless form and a deep, talented team around him, is this the year the Stars shed their bridesmaid status?

Not if Edmonton has anything to say about it. Connor McDavid, surly at the best of times, has been in a rotten mood since June 24 last year. A Stanley Cup is the only thing that can remedy that, and the Oilers were on the warpath against Vegas. They seemed almost disdainful that the Pacific Division champion Golden Knights even showed up to play them, dispatching their opponents in five and shutting them out in consecutive games to close the book on the series.

They can’t afford to look past Dallas, though, whose addition of Rantanen corrected a lack of superstar talent that has held them back in previous years. The Oilers are on a mission, the Stars have a score to settle, and whoever gets out of the East has one heck of a challenge ahead of them.

Head to Head

Dallas: 2-1-0
Edmonton: 1-2-0

Regular season matchups between playoff teams are often so far in the rearview that they have little bearing on the impending series, but the Stars and Oilers actually met twice after the trade deadline.

The first contest saw the Oilers spoil Rantanen’s Dallas debut on March 8 behind a pair of dominant performances by McDavid and Zach Hyman, who scored twice during perhaps his best game of the season. The 5-4 final doesn’t tell the whole story; Edmonton took a 5-1 lead into the third frame.

The Stars got their payback three weeks later, when Jason Robertson beat a shaky Stuart Skinner for a hat trick as Dallas triumphed 4-3 despite being heavily outshot (44-24). Winning with superior offensive talent, great goaltending, and sloppy defense was the Stars’ M.O. down the stretch.

Oettinger and Skinner started all three regular season contests for their respective clubs, and the former was excellent, posting a .912% save percentage despite a goals-against average above three. Skinner, meanwhile, struggled to a sub .850 mark and a bloated 3.99 GAA.

Top Five Scorers

Dallas

Mikko Rantanen, 19 points
Thomas Harley, 11 points
Roope Hintz, 10 points
Wyatt Johnston 8 points
Mikael Granlund, 7 points

Edmonton

Connor McDavid, 17 points
Leon Draisaitl, 16 points
Evan Bouchard, 12 points
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 9 points
Zach Hyman, 8 points

X-Factor

Though Roope Hintz and Wyatt Johnston are bigger names up the middle, it was actually Matt Duchene who led the club in regular-season scoring with 82 points. Getting that sort of production almost as an afterthought while Johnston and Hintz drew the tougher defensive assignments had all the makings of a championship-winning luxury, especially after Duchene’s linemate Tyler Seguin drew back into the lineup just in time for the first round.

Duchene is certainly an afterthought, but not for the reasons Dallas had hoped. Amid Hintz’s star turn and Johnston’s tough puck luck (playoff-worst -13, .966 PDO), the wily vet has been concerningly anonymous. A year on from posting a paltry six points during a deep Stars playoff run, the veteran speedster again finds himself on the milk carton with all of four assists in 13 games.

The electric chemistry the 34-year-old developed with Mason Marchment and Seguin before the latter’s months-long recovery from hip surgery has been absent this spring; Seguin’s two goals and five points are high-water marks for the trio.

The Duchene line’s play-driving metrics have been excellent since Seguin’s old pal Jamie Benn replaced Marchment, but the goals were still missing against Winnipeg despite the unit’s huge 24-9 lead in scoring chances. Expected goals must turn into real ones for Duchene and Co. to turn the Stars’ vaunted depth from a paper tiger to a legitimate threat against Edmonton.

Offense

Can you have a breakout, star-making performance after you’ve already notched six 80-point seasons and more than 100 playoff points? Ask Rantanen. The 28-year-old is the hottest player in the world. After dismantling his old team in a Game 7 performance for the ages, Rantanen fired in another hat trick past presumptive Vezina winner (MVP?) Connor Hellebuyck Game 1 of the second round.

Rantanen “only” had seven points overall in the six-game series, but with his confidence at an all-time high, another eruption might be inevitable. Hintz’s speed and power have made him the perfect Rantanen complement, but it was utility man Mikael Granlund who struck with a hat trick of his own against Winnipeg in Game 4. The Finn Line is suddenly one of the NHL’s signature units, but beyond them, the Stars’ scoring has dried up.

The Rantanen line, Johnston, and Harley have accounted for 26 of Dallas’ 34 goals in the playoffs. That’s more than 76% for our English majors, and Seguin is the only other Star with multiple tallies. Perhaps that means everyone else is due, but the Dallas fans who watched their club go cold in the past two Western Conference Finals must be getting antsy.

Duchene can’t buy a goal, Robertson has labored since his return from injury (1 A, 14:55 ATOI in 6 GP), and Seguin has been uncharacteristically gun-shy (1.3 shots-per-game, down from 3.1 last postseason). Rantanen may have outdueled Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar in Round 1, but repeating the trick against McDavid and Draisaitl can’t be a solo effort.

McDavid and Draisaitl, of course, are second and fourth, respectively, in postseason scoring. No. 97 is skating with versatile vet Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and garbage goal man extraordinaire Zach Hyman, who have left tough regular seasons in the rearview, on the Oilers’ first line. Though the Edmonton captain has been brilliant, he only has three goals and is converting at a paltry 7% clip. There’s another gear to McDavid that he didn’t reach during a good-not-great performance against Vegas (6 P in 5 GP), a thought that must keep Stars’ coach Pete DeBoer up at night.

Leon Draisaitl was similarly subdued against the overmatched Golden Knights, netting twice and collecting six points in the five-game stand. The most interesting development of the series for the German was his move back to center between Vasily Podkolzin and Kasperi Kapanen, who started the playoffs on the fourth line and in the press box, respectively. If the speedy forecheckers can convert on at least a few of Draisaitl’s pretty passes, they’ll allow Kris Knoblauch to scatter his best goal scorers across three lines.

That means shuffling Evander Kane down to the third unit, which worked a treat in the conference semis. After missing the regular season with a (cap-related) injury, the NHL’s ultimate villain is back and better than ever. The one-time Atalanta Thrasher was a bull in a China shop against Vegas, averaging five hits per game, getting in goalie Adin Hill’s head, and scoring past him twice for good measure. Kane and linemates Adam Henrique and Connor Brown dismantled the Golden Knights in Game 4, contributing every goal in a 3-0 victory. Could the once top-heavy Oilers go into their meeting with Dallas as the deeper team?

THE OILERS SCORE AGAIN AND THEN ADIN HILL GOES AFTER EVANDER KANE 😱🫨 pic.twitter.com/VTJjoxzKBx

— Gino Hard (@GinoHard_) May 13, 2025

That would assuage some concerns over their ailing power play, which went 1/11 against the Knights’ pedestrian PK. The typically lethal group won’t have it any easier against an 86% Dallas kill that just got Miro Heiskanen back. Even still, Evan Bouchard, the blueline talisman of the Oilers’ man advantage, continued to pile up points at even strength against Vegas. His playoff pedigree and booming slap shot will make him very rich, very soon.

Defense

Is there a lab somewhere in Finland with dozens of Miro Heiskanens frozen in cryostasis? It’s hard to believe any human made the old-fashioned way could round into form so quickly after a three-month absence, but there’s no doubt that after Game 6, Heiskanen is officially back from whatever Mark Stone did to his knee.

Heiskanen was off the pace in a Game 4 cameo, but the kid gloves were off by Game 6, and the swaggering puck mover was Dallas’s best skater in the closeout game. When Heiskanen is on, the game seems to orbit around him just like it did on Saturday; Dallas attempted 48 shots to Winnipeg’s 13 during his minutes. DeBoer is stacking Heiskanen and emerging star Harley on a mega pair that can skate, defend, and score for 25 minutes a night. Their chemistry will be key to silencing Edmonton’s big guns.

DeBoer’s continued belief in Esa Lindell and former Oiler Cody Ceci on the second unit also paid dividends in round two. They might not have gotten any bounces in frequent minutes against Winnipeg’s feared Scheifele line (outscored 4-1 at five-on-five), but handily won the territorial battle, controlling nearly 60% of scoring chances against the Jets’ star center. Lindell and Ceci will never pile up the points, but they’ve started to convert their excellence on the PK to even-strength hockey.

Big, nasty rookie Lian Bischel is growing into his game as a crease-clearer on the bottom pair and could be getting a new partner in Ilya Lyubushkin. The Russian moves like a glacier, but he was generally solid as a top-four stand-in beside Harley. Sheltered minutes should highlight his defensive strengths.

The Stars may have just gotten a top-pair D-man back, but, for now, the Oilers can only envy them as they await the return of Mattias Ekholm, one of the truly elite defensive defensemen left in the modern game. A large portion of Ekholm’s grit and smarts usually goes towards mitigating the defensive flaws of the free-scoring Bouchard, who is prone to the sort of “What are you doing?!” mistakes that send heart rates soaring across Edmonton.

Bouchard’s brilliance on the puck generally makes his misadventures on defense a worthwhile trade-off, and smooth-skating veteran Brett Kulak is filling in well as his interim partner/babysitter. The duo has pulled in nearly 65% of expected goals since Kulak replaced Nurse on the top pair, but neither man is the club leader in rating.

That distinction goes to Jake Walman, whose +13 playoff mark is tops in the NHL. Walman’s big shot and fearless approach to shot blocking have helped replace some of what Ekholm brings to the table, and his tandem with fellow midseason addition John Klingberg has been a boon for the Oilers. Walman’s puck retrieval and Klingberg’s outlet passing have fit well into Edmonton’s transition game, which could be especially important against a Stars team without great footspeed.

Nurse’s chemistry with diminutive righty Troy Stecher means the Oilers don’t have to hide any of their pairs at even strength, though their results on the penalty kill have been less inspiring. A year removed from the historic PK streak that helped them come within a game of the Stanley Cup, Edmonton is well under 70% on the kill ahead of the Western Conference Final. With or without Ekholm, that has to improve against a Dallas power play scoring at the highest clip left in the field (30.8%).

Goaltending

Rantanen’s rampage and Heiskanen’s triumphant return are grabbing all the headlines, but the Stars never would have made it this far without the brilliance of Jake Oettinger between the pipes (2.47 GAA, .917 SV%). When the Stars recklessly traded chances during the first round, ‘Otter’ averaged more than 29 stops per game. The defense in front of Oettinger cleaned up its act against Winnipeg, but they still needed his sprawling blocker save on Mason Appleton to avoid another Game 7. The Minnesotan has 10 quality starts in 13 tries this postseason and made his 60th career playoff appearance over the weekend.

JAKE OETTINGER SOURCERY TO KEEP GAME 6 TIED 😱

📺 ABC/ESPN+ pic.twitter.com/nOV6a7qQeG

— ESPN (@espn) May 18, 2025

Stuart Skinner can be a roller coaster in the Edmonton cage, but there’s no questioning his intestinal fortitude. The native Edmontonian lost his net to journeyman backup Cal Pickard just three games into the playoffs. If that wasn’t bad enough, he found himself stranded on a backbreaking, buzzer-beater goal in Game 3 against the Golden Knights after Pickard picked up an injury during his six-game heater. The screw up could easily have sent Skinner, one of the streakiest players in the NHL, spiraling. Instead, he rallied to shut out Vegas over the final 127 minutes of the series.

A similar reset (see: benching) helped Skinner get his head right last postseason, when he helped Edmonton reach Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final. He might not be Grant Fuhr, but if Skinner can channel his inner Bill Ranford and get hot when it counts, his positional shot stopping and mental toughness will go a long way for the Oilers.

Injuries

With Heiskanen and Robertson back, Dallas is whole for the first time in months. The Stars played 11 forwards and 7 defensemen to help ease the former into the Winnipeg series, but, with the training wheels off Heiskanen, DeBoer can go anywhere he wants with his lineup.

The same can’t be said for Knoblauch, who has had to wait patiently for Ekholm to rehab his mystery injury over the past two months. He might not have to wait much longer. Ekholm’s return went from “if” to “when” when the big Swede joined his team for an optional skate over the weekend. Still, in the smoke-and-mirrors world of NHL injury disclosure, “maybe some time in the third round” can mean a starring role in Game 3 or eight minutes in Game 6. We won’t know until we know.

Pickard is similarly day-to-day, though Oilers fans will hope they don’t live to regret his absence. For now, Olivier Rodrigue is wearing the ball cap at the end of the bench.

Another wrinkle in Edmonton’s injury picture is the strength of its reserves. Jeff Skinner, Viktor Arvidsson, and Ty Emberson finished the Vegas series as healthy scratches despite playing 67+ regular-season games. If a down-lineup Oiler picks up a knock, it shouldn’t sink the team.

Intangibles

The Stars’ window will never be this wide open again, not after more than $20 million in cap space goes towards deserved extensions for Rantanen, Johnston, and Oettinger on July 1. Despite that, it felt somewhat like the Stars were playing without pressure in the opening rounds. The Avs were supposed to kill them, but Rantanen’s Game 7 brilliance earned Dallas a stay of execution and a trip to Round 2. The Presidents’ Trophy-winning Jets and their frazzled leader Hellebuyck were off-color from the get go, and Dallas didn’t have to strain too hard to jump out to a commanding 3-1 series lead.

Now, the real challenge begins. The Oilers are the boogeyman for Western Conference hopefuls, having won five straight series on their side of the bracket, including last year’s conference final against the Stars. Dallas may have felt like it was playing with house money in the conference semifinal, but, within spitting distance of the Cup final for a third straight season, the Stars, especially their underperforming veterans, need to find their sense of urgency.

That’s not an issue for Edmonton. Years into their own cap crunch, which will only get worse once they pay Bouchard, the Oilers need to win now or not at all. McDavid keenly understands that, and he seemed downright agitated even after the Oilers won a series clincher in overtime.

They’re locked in after last year’s disappointment, sure, but are the Oilers at risk of holding their sticks too tight? Things are going well for Edmonton, but there’s a lot of hockey left, and from the outside looking in, the team seems seriously wound up. If they’re putting extra pressure on themselves in an already tense playoff environment, could the comparatively easygoing Stars take advantage?

Series Prediction

Dallas is an excellent team whose Rantanen gambit could lead to Cup glory. Based on their demolition of Vegas, though, the Oilers still have a second gear that other Western teams can’t seem to match, and that’s without Draisaitl and McDavid scoring goals at their usual pace. They’ll grab an early lead against the Stars and avoid Pete DeBoer’s spotless Game 7 record.

Oilers in six games.

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