4 Nations Face-Off betting preview: USA vs Finland predictions

The second night of the 4 Nations Face-Off will feature Team USA taking on Team Finland, in what should be an electrifying showdown. While this is the first game of the tournament for both sides, each round-robin matchup is equally important, so don’t expect either side to lack intensity Thursday evening.

The two nations which accumulate the most points in the round robin phase will earn spots in the final, which will take place on Thursday, February 20th at the TD Garden in Boston. Regulation wins will garner three points, wins coming past regulation will earn two points, and losses past regulation will earn one point.

The Americans are massive favorites in this matchup, as they take on a depleted Finnish side which is considered the tournament’s biggest underdog per oddsmakers, priced at +850 to win outright on bet365.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favorite betting angles below.

USA vs Finland Odds

• USA Moneyline Odds: -340
• Finland Moneyline Odds: +270
• Puck Line Odds: USA -1.5 (-125), Finland +1.5 (+105)
• Game Total: 5.5 goals (over -130, under +110)
  Above odds courtesy of bet365.

Handicapping Team USA

While the Canadians entered the tournament as betting favorites per bet365, USA’s roster, on paper, is arguably the best team in the history of the program.

It features a loaded offensive core, which offers a good balance of elitebfinishers, gritty power forwards, and players that are highly responsible in their own end. They also hold an excellent defensive core which should transition the puck extremely well, and last year’s Vezina Trophy winner, Connor Hellebuyck, is starting in goal.

USA’s roster does not feature as many Stanley Cup champions as Canada’s does, and has nowhere near the same level of experience in best-on-best tournaments.

Still, there are some proven winners atop the American roster who have dominated high-pressure moments at other points in their careers, including Jack Eichel, Matthew Tkachuk and Jake Guentzel, who have all been key skaters on recent Stanley Cup-winning teams.

Eichel and Tkachuk will team up on the team’s first offensive unit, skating alongside one of the game’s most potent finishers in Kyle Connor. Connor currently ranks sixth in the NHL with 30 goals this season, and should get plenty of opportunities to put his elite shot to good use playing alongside Eichel and Tkachuk.

Team USA’s second line, compiled of 2021-22 Hart Trophy winner and three-time NHL goals leader Auston Matthews, Jack Hughes, and Guentzel, could prove to be an “x-factor” capable of stealing any matchup. While Matthews and Hughes have yet to find success in the Stanley Cup playoffs, they are two of the most dynamic players in the league, and have an opportunity to prove themselves as “clutch” players in this tournament.

The third line of Brady Tkachuk, J.T. Miller, and Matt Boldy could prove to be a nightmare for the opposition in this tournament, and will look to provide a physical edge to the team while offering reliable defensive play.

The team suffered a tough blow as reigning Norris Trophy winner Quinn Hughes is unavailable due to injury, but there is still an argument to be made that the USA’s defensive core is right there with what Team Canada and Sweden are offering.

The US defense core is much smaller than that of Canada and Sweden, and likely will not bring the same level of play in terms of physicality. While the unit may not be very imposing physically, it features a number of the games best play-driving defenders, who can transition the puck effectively and do an excellent job attacking in the offensive zone.

Adam Fox and Zach Werenski are both tremendous puck-movers who are still quite capable in the defensive zone, and should benefit from being partnered with elite shutdown defenders in Jaccob Slavin and Charlie McAvoy.

Noah Hanifin and Brock Faber compile a highly capable third pairing, which will likely do a good job of suppressing rush chances and driving play in the other direction, even versus the stacked third and fourth units that opponents will be offering in this tournament.

Special teams play will likely be key in determining the tournament champion, and those units needing to develop chemistry in a small timeframe adds an interesting wrinkle of volatility.

USA’s has practiced with a top power play unit of Matthew Tkachuk, Guentzel, Matthews, Eichel, and Adam Fox, which is on paper a relatively flawless unit.

Fox has proven to be one of the best power play quarterbacks in the NHL, and will have elite options on the flanks in Matthews and Eichel. Guentzel will likely play the bumper spot, while Tkachuk provides an excellent net-front option.

While USA may not need incredible goaltending in order to win this tournament, it certainly has three options capable of providing elite play in Hellebuyck, Jeremy Swayman, and Jake Oettinger.

Hellebuyck has been confirmed as the starter for Thursday’s matchup, which is far from surprising given his incredible play over the last two seasons at the NHL level. Hellebuyck won the 2023-24 Vezina Trophy, and is currently heavily favored to retain that honour this season.

While Hellebuyck has inarguably been the best regular season goaltender over the last two seasons, he did struggle in the Winnipeg Jets’ first-round elimination last season, and certainly has much to prove on this kind of high-pressure stage.

Handicapping Team Finland

The Finns have honed a reputation of being one of the proudest hockey nations, and continually seem to come together as a group that displays highly-spirited, well-organized team play. They will need to lean heavily upon those strengths in this tournament, as they are the only nation which will be icing below-average NHL skaters.

From a talent perspective, Finland is facing an uphill battle to be sure, but the highly volatile format of this tournament could work in its favor if it can minimize mistakes and lean on the superstars who are in the lineup.

Finland’s offensive core holds a number of truly elite talents, and the top-six should be more than capable of hanging in versus any competition led by a one-two punch down the middle of Aleksander Barkov and Sebastian Aho.

Barkov won the Selke Trophy for best defensive forward last season, and played a critical role in the Florida Panthers’ Stanley Cup championship. He will have a proven winner in Mikko Rantanen on his flank, who is one of the game’s best pure goal-scorers.

Aho has proven to be a highly responsible center in his own right, and will be supported by Roope Hintz, who has been tremendous in the playoffs throughout his career, and is also excellent defensively.

The bottom-six certainly has enough talent to get by, but is on paper somewhat of a flaw relative to what the tournament favorites are offering.

While Finland’s offensive core may have enough talent to get by, it will likely be hindered by an underwhelming blue-line.

Finland received a highly unlucky break with the injury of top defender Miro Heiskanen, who would likely have played close to 30 minutes in each matchup on a unit which already did not look overly convincing prior to his injury.

Relative to what other teams are offering, the Finnish defensive core is a clear weakness. Of the six skaters who appear to be drawing into Thursday’s lineup, Esa Lindell, Nikko Mikkola and Olli Maatta are the only ones to earn consistent top-four usage at the NHL level this season.

The team will likely need a strong goaltending performance to find success in this matchup, as they look to shut down a stacked American side.

Juuse Saros has been confirmed as Finland’s starter in this matchup. While Saros has been among the league’s best goaltenders throughout much of his career, he has not been quite as dominant over the last two seasons. In 41 games played this season, Saros holds a -3.5 GSAx rating and .898 save percentage, after posting a -3.0 GSAx and .906 save percentage during the 2023-24 campaign.

Best bet for USA vs. Finland

• USA Puck Line -1.5 (-125) at bet365

While this being the first matchup of this tournament for both teams adds a layer of volatility, it is difficult to expect Finland’s defensive core to hang in versus one of the most talented rosters we have ever seen in any international competition.

The Finns have earned a reputation for being a tough out in international play, but they are very far below the other nations in this tournament from a talent perspective.

The overall depth of USA’s roster should prove to be particularly concerning for Finland, as the Finns will have some below-average NHL’ers looking to shut down some of the game’s very best players. While Saros has the potential to be one of the best goaltenders in the game, he has been closer to a league average starter over the last two seasons.

When the Finns do manage to create some chances at the other end of the ice, they may not find much success as they take on the game’s best goaltender in Hellebuyck.

At -125, I believe there is value in backing the Americans to cover the puck line in Thursday’s tournament opener.