4 Nations Face-Off odds: Canada a Small Favorite over USA

The 23-man rosters for the 4 Nations Face-Off were made official last Wednesday, leading to plenty of debate over the final decisions among hockey fans.

Like myself, chances are you don’t agree with every decision, and that’s part of what makes the tournament fun. Some truly elite players were cut, and inevitably the final decisions will be criticized for the three nations which don’t take home gold.

While certainly the roster decisions do make a big difference, the gap between a perceived snub and the player that made it is still relatively minor relative to the actual percentage chance of winning these games. 

Year-after-year we see plenty of quality NHL rosters take lengthy periods of time to begin playing as a truly cohesive unit. Now, in a tournament featuring hockey’s absolute best talents, teams will be required to jell based on only two designated practice days (Feb. 10 and Feb. 11) before getting into action. 

Avoiding mistakes and playing a highly-detailed team game will be critical as mistakes will be punished at a high rate. Due to the fact that the entire tournament will be played out over a nine-day period from Feb. 12 to 20, teams will need to become highly organized in short order. 

All games in the 4 Nations Face-Off will be played in accordance with NHL rules. Each team will play three tournament games in a traditional Round Robin format, under the following points system: three points for a win in regulation time; two points for a win in overtime/shootout; one point for a loss in overtime/shootout; and zero points for a loss in regulation time.

The two teams with the best tournament record will advance to a one-game final, which adds another wrinkle of volatility 

From a handicapping perspective, the best we can do is analyze potential strengths and weaknesses of each roster, but it’s far from a guarantee that it will play out where the most talented roster wins based on tournament structure and volatility of a one-game final. 

Let’s take a look at the final rosters and current tournament outright prices, courtesy of Sports Interaction.

Canada (+140)

Forwards

Sam Bennett, Florida Panthers
Anthony Cirelli, Tampa Bay Lightning
Sidney Crosby, Pittsburgh Penguins
Brandon Hagel, Tampa Bay Lightning
Seth Jarvis, Carolina Hurricanes
Travis Konecny, Philadelphia Flyers
Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche
Brad Marchand, Boston Bruins
Mitch Marner, Toronto Maple Leafs
Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers
Brayden Point, Tampa Bay Lightning
Sam Reinhart, Florida Panthers
Mark Stone, Vegas Golden Knights

Defensemen

Drew Doughty, Los Angeles Kings*
Cale Makar, Colorado Avalanche
Josh Morrissey, Winnipeg Jets
Colton Parayko, St. Louis Blues
Travis Sanheim, Philadelphia Flyers
Shea Theodore, Vegas Golden Knights
Devon Toews, Colorado Avalanche

(* Injury Replacement for Alex Pietrangelo)

Goalies

Jordan Binnington, St. Louis Blues
Adin Hill, Vegas Golden Knights
Sam Montembeault, Montreal Canadiens

Canada is still the current tournament favorite at +160, but that number has ticked up from the +125 range prior to roster announcements. 

The perceived ‘weakness’ of the Canadian roster relative to other teams is goaltending. Unless things really go south, though, chances are only two goalies will be used for any nation. So the USA holding Connor Hellebuyck, Jake Oettinger, and Jeremy Swayman isn’t necessarily as much of an edge over Canada as it sounds, as even one goalie finding top form will be plenty. 

Chances are Adin Hill ends up as Canada’s starting goaltender in the most critical matchups, as he has had a great start to this season, and was excellent during the Knights’ Cup run in 2022-23. Hill has played to a positive GSAx rating in three straight seasons, including a +8.8 GSAx in 34 games played this season.

The bottom two pairs of Canada’s defensive core are also arguably a downgrade relative to what the USA is offering, though those units will still be compiled entirely of elite NHL players.

Devon Toews and Cale Makar should form the top pair, which is one potential advantage as the two obviously have plenty of experience together in forming arguably the league’s best defensive pairing over the last several seasons in Colorado.

Canada’s offensive core boasts arguably the two best forwards in the NHL in Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon, and is absolutely stacked top to bottom.

USA (+150)

Forwards

Matt Boldy, Minnesota Wild
Kyle Connor, Winnipeg Jets
Jack Eichel, Vegas Golden Knights
Jake Guentzel, Tampa Bay Lightning
Jack Hughes, New Jersey Devils
Chris Kreider, New York Rangers
Dylan Larkin, Detroit Red Wings
Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs
J.T. Miller, Vancouver Canucks
Brock Nelson, New York Islanders
Brady Tkachuk, Ottawa Senators
Matthew Tkachuk, Florida Panthers
Vincent Trocheck, New York Rangers

Defensemen

Brock Faber, Minnesota Wild
Adam Fox, New York Rangers
Noah Hanifin, Vegas Golden Knights
Charlie McAvoy, Boston Bruins
Jake Sanderson, Ottawa Senators*
Jaccob Slavin, Carolina Hurricanes
Zach Werenski, Columbus Blue Jackets

(* Injury Replacement for Quinn Hughes)

Goalies

Connor Hellebuyck, Winnipeg Jets
Jake Oettinger, Dallas Stars
Jeremy Swayman, Boston Bruins

USA Hockey is in a great place, as it is arguably sending the best roster in the history of the organization to this tournament.

The roster features a number of the NHL’s very best forwards, including several that are among the games very best from a defensive perspective, including Auston Matthews and Jack Eichel. There’s arguably slightly less offensive upside among USA’s forward corps than Canada is offering, but it may not necessarily play out that way because those forwards will be aided by a group of highly-mobile defenders that will move the puck extremely well, and do a great job of helping to sustain offensive zone.

One of the most consistent criticisms from Canada’s roster decisions was passing on defenders like MacKenzie Weegar and Evan Bouchard in favour of more defensive minded individuals that don’t quite drive possession and offensive play at the same level. 

The USA’s more notable roster snubs came up front, as it opted to pass on the goal-scoring upside of guys like Tage Thompson and Cole Caufield to round out the roster with forwards who will ideally be more effective in roles further down the lineup and on the penalty kill.

Having the 2023-24 Vezina winner in Hellebuyck in goal could arguably be the USA’s greatest advantage, as he likely has to be viewed as the best goaltender in hockey right now. Hellebuyck did struggle in last year’s postseason, though, and it’s not necessarily a guarantee he will provide the best goaltending in this tournament, even though he does hold the highest upside. 

Sweden (+425)

Forwards

Viktor Arvidsson, Edmonton Oilers
Jesper Bratt, New Jersey Devils
Leo Carlsson, Anaheim Ducks
Joel Eriksson Ek, Minnesota Wild
Filip Forsberg, Nashville Predators
Adrian Kempe, Los Angeles Kings
Elias Lindholm, Boston Bruins
William Nylander, Toronto Maple Leafs
Gustav Nyqvist, Nashville Predators
Elias Pettersson, Vancouver Canucks
Rickard Rakell, Pittsburgh Penguins*
Lucas Raymond, Detroit Red Wings
Mika Zibanejad, New York Rangers

(* Injury Replacement for William Karlsson)

Defensemen

Rasmus Andersson, Calgary Flames
Jonas Brodin, Minnesota Wild
Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo Sabres
Mattias Ekholm, Edmonton Oilers
Gustav Forsling, Florida Panthers
Victor Hedman, Tampa Bay Lightning
Erik Karlsson, Pittsburgh Penguins

Goalies

Samuel Ersson, Philadelphia Flyers*
Filip Gustavsson, Minnesota Wild
Linus Ullmark, Ottawa Senators

(* Injury Replacement for Jacob Markstrom)

The overall depth of Sweden’s roster is lacking relative to USA and Canada, but if we see the Swedes come together and play a strong team game as we have in the past, there is more than enough talent to win this thing. 

There are still plenty of elite talents up front in names like William Nylander, Jesper Bratt, Filip Forsberg, Elias Pettersson, Adrian Kempe and Lucas Raymond to allow coach Sam Hallam to form a truly elite top-six, and perhaps more than other nations he may be inclined to simply keep their minutes closer to what they receive at the NHL level.

As we have typically seen from the Swedes, the defensive core looks excellent, and features a great combination of elite shutdown guys and strong offensive-minded defenders. 

Goaltending has also typically been a strength of Sweden’s roster in international play, and it looks pretty set ahead of this tournament.

Gustavsson may not have proven as a winner in the biggest moments like other netminders in this tournament, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t capable. Coming into the tournament, Gustavsson holds a top-seven spot in save percentage (.915) across the NHL, highlighting his stellar ability to stop the puck.

Finland (+850)

Forwards (13)

Sebastian Aho, Carolina Hurricanes
Joel Armia, Montreal Canadiens
Aleksander Barkov, Florida Panthers
Mikael Granlund, San Jose Sharks
Erik Haula, New Jersey Devils
Roope Hintz, Dallas Stars
Kaapo Kakko, New York Rangers
Patrik Laine, Montreal Canadiens
Artturi Lehkonen, Colorado Avalanche
Anton Lundell, Florida Panthers
Eetu Luostarinen, Florida Panthers
Mikko Rantanen, Colorado Avalanche
Teuvo Teravainen, Chicago Blackhawks

Defensemen (7)

Henri Jokiharju, Buffalo Sabres*
Esa Lindell, Dallas Stars
Olli Maatta, Utah Hockey Club
Nikolas Matinpalo, Ottawa Senators*
Niko Mikkola, Florida Panthers
Urho Vaakaninen, New York Rangers*
Juuso Valimaki, Utah Hockey Club

(* Injury Replacements for Rasmus Ristolainen, Miro Heiskanen & Jani Hakanpaa)

Goalies (3)

Kevin Lankinen, Vancouver Canucks
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Buffalo Sabres
Juuse Saros, Nashville Predators

The Finns have honed a reputation for well-structured team play in international hockey, and still feature enough talent to be a tough out in this tournament with some inspired play.

Aleksander Barkov will presumably be named captain, and will set the tone for a group that will need to win based off of a strong team game. While they still have several top NHL talents, relative to the other rosters in this tournament, Finland is fighting an uphill battle from a talent perspective. The defensive core is likely the biggest flaw compared to the favorites in this tournament, followed by the lack of depth upfront. 

Juuse Saros has been fantastic this season, though, which isn’t garnering much talk as the Predators flounder at the bottom of the standings. Saros holds a .899 save % in 41 games played this season, and will surely be very excited to play meaningful hockey when this tournament comes around. 

Best Bets

If this were an 82-game season followed by a typical playoff structure, the chances we would see Canada or the USA come out on top would be even greater. However, the condensed format of this tournament will make it exciting and volatile, and perhaps slightly less of a slam dunk to back the best rosters on paper winning it all.

Originally, I had viewed Sweden at the best outright option (+425), but its price to win it all has ticked down and looks closer to fair now. However, I do still see value in backing Sweden to shock Canada in the tournament opener on February 12th at +205 odds. Each team’s first game of the tournament should be the most volatile, and that is a really long number with that idea in mind. Gustavsson has been one of the very best goaltenders in the league this season, and the Swedes have enough talent to insulate him effectively.

At +150, the Americans are my favorite outright option. Their defensive core is the best on paper in the tournament, and they should benefit from having last year’s Vezina winner in goal.