4 Nations Face-Off final betting preview: Canada vs. USA predictions

Team United States forward Matthew Tkachuk (19) and Team Canada forward brandon Hagel (38) fight in the first period during a 4 Nations Face-Off ice hockey game at the Bell Centre

Credit: Eric Bolte-Imagn Images

Canada and the USA will play for all the marbles Thursday evening at TD Garden in Boston, as they square off in one of the most highly anticipated hockey games in the history of the sport to determine the winner of the 4 Nations Face-Off.

The USA bested Canada 3-1 in round-robin play Saturday in Montreal, as Connor Hellebuyck furthered his case towards being the best goaltender alive in stopping 25 of 26 shots faced in a closely contested matchup. While Hellebuyck was a big part of the story, the American’s played an excellent defensive game, and look to be a well-rounded machine entering this matchup.

While Saturday’s matchup in Montreal was an instant classic, it will surely be Thursday’s tournament final which proves to be the lasting memory from the NHL’s highly successful 4 Nations Face-Off. Canada can either fully redeem itself for a painful loss on home soil with a win, or finish the tournament 0-2 versus its greatest rival.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favorite betting angles below.

Canada vs USA Odds

Canada Moneyline Odds: -110
USA Moneyline Odds: -110
Puck Line Odds: Canada +1.5 (-280), USA -1.5 (+230)
Game Total: 5.5 goals (over +110, under -130)
Above odds courtesy of bet365.

Handicapping Team Canada

With so much pride on the line in this matchup for a roster littered with the game’s very best players, you can bet Canada is leaving no stone unturned in its desperate pursuit of a winning result in this matchup.

From a defensive perspective, it’s hard to imagine Canada will be able to put together a significantly sharper performance than we saw Saturday night, considering the sheer amount of elite offensive talent on the American roster.

Canada limited the USA to just 13 scoring chances on Saturday, and allowed 22 shots on goal. They held the Americans to just 3:09 of offensive zone possession time, and did a fairly sound job overall of avoiding true defensive breakdowns.

USA did hold a 5-3 edge in odd-man rushes, which did prove to be a critical factor in the game, as Dylan Larkin took advantage of a poorly timed Canadian line change to give his team a lead which would never be relinquished.

While it is true that Canada’s most realistic path to a better result is authoring a more dynamic offensive performance, if not for a notably soft goal allowed by Jordan Binnington to Jake Guentzel we’d likely be hearing similarly negative remarks made regarding the USA’s offensive play.

Goaltending was expected to be the USA’s greatest edge over Team Canada entering the tournament, and it ultimately was the difference on Saturday evening, as both goaltenders faced highly comparable workloads both in quantity and quality.

Binnington holds a +0.2 GSAx and .896 save percentage in 39 games played with the St. Louis Blues this season, and has been confirmed as Canada’s starting goaltender in this matchup.

Canada will need to do a better job of creating chaos in front of Hellebuyck than we saw Saturday night, and force shots either coming through screens or which come after east-west movement. It’s a task easier said than done versus a team defending at the level the USA has in this tournament, but it is a recipe that led the Colorado Avalanche to plenty of success versus Hellebuyck in the 2023-24 NHL playoffs.

Cale Makar did a masterful job of creating quality scoring chances from the point in that series, finishing with two goals and nine points in just five games.

Makar’s addition to the lineup after missing Saturday’s matchup could prove notable, as Canada’s defensive core struggled to move the puck at times in the defensive zone in that matchup, and did not look overly threatening at the offensive blue-line.

While power plays will likely be hard to come by in this matchup, Makar being back in the lineup will make Canada’s top unit significantly more threatening. Canada went 0-for-2 on the man advantage in Saturday’s matchup.

Canada did find much more offensive success versus Finland while sporting some different looking offensive lines, and appear to be sticking with those units in this matchup.

Brayden Point proved to be a good complement to Connor McDavid versus Finland, though the Finnish roster did offer far less defensive upside than that of the USA.

In 11:53 of time on ice together, Canada’s top trio of McDavid, Point, and Mark Stone held an 80.3% expected goal share and combined for two goals.

Canada’s new-look second trio of Sidney Crosby, Nathan MacKinnon, and Sam Reinhart also seemed to find chemistry, combining for seven points while holding a 60.3% expected goal share.

Handicapping Team USA

While Saturday’s game could be viewed as somewhat of a ‘coin-flip’, the U.S. would certainly be happy to see this game follow a similar script, and take its chances in Hellebuyck being the difference once again. The Americans did an excellent job of limiting Canada’s true ‘grade-A’ scoring chances on Saturday, which provided the world’s best goaltender with an opportunity to win a closely fought game.

Charlie McAvoy was excellent in Saturday’s matchup, and was notably physical versus a number of Canada’s top forwards. McAvoy will miss this game due to an infection in his right shoulder, which will mean Jake Sanderson remains in the lineup.

While McAvoy has been excellent in this tournament and has plenty of big-game experience, Sanderson is an excellent player in his own right and should not offer a significant dropoff.

As expected, Team USA’s defensive core has been a massive strength in this tournament. It offers a number of mobile two-way defenders, who do an excellent job of driving play in the right direction and helping to create offense while not being exposed defensively.

While Team USA’s offensive core does not have quite the same game-breaking talents Canada does in Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon, it can certainly make up for it in a number of different ways.

The Tkachuk brothers have done an excellent job of getting to the dirty areas to create offense in a tightly contested tournament. They have been highly effective playing alongside Jack Eichel, who has been entirely dominant in all areas of the ice and furthered his reputation as one of the game’s best two-way centres.

After missing Monday’s meaningless matchup versus Sweden, Matthew Tkachuk returned to practice Wednesday and is expected to play in this game. Brady Tkachuk missed practice Thursday after exiting in the first period versus Sweden, but is also expected to play in this matchup.

Auston Matthews also missed USA’s matchup versus Sweden, but stated that he would play in this game after Thursday’s practice.

With a +27.8 GSAx and .925 save percentage in 43 games played with the Winnipeg Jets this season, Hellebuyck is a heavy favorite to win a second consecutive Vezina Trophy. He has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup.

Best bet for Canada vs USA

While some observers questioned how invested in this tournament players might be, suddenly we have a game that is being treated like Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final. Even Jack Eichel stated this was potentially the biggest game of his life, which is a meaningful statement coming from a Stanley Cup champion.

As the intensity and attention to detail rises, we tend to see lower scoring games every postseason, specifically in Game 7s where it is do-or-die for both teams. Referees tend to call less penalties which reduces offensive outputs not only due to a lack of power plays, but because it’s easier to defend when you can get away with borderline infractions.

Canada will try its best to put together a better offensive performance in this matchup, and Makar’s return to the lineup could help it in that regard. Still, the Canadians will be facing a USA roster which has been fantastic defensively in this tournament, and is playing in front of a historically dominant goaltender.

Canada was excellent defensively on Saturday, and will likely give Binnington a strong chance of success in this matchup. While Binnington has let in at least one soft goal in every game of this tournament, he has been respectable overall.

Chances are we will see a nail-biter on Thursday, as it’s hard to imagine either team offering quality chances up very easily.

Betting the first period to go under 1.5 goals at -120 (bet365) looks to provide value, in a game which will likely be quite battened down early on as players look to avoid making critical mistakes.

There also looks to be value backing the game to end in a tie at +300 (bet365), as it seems highly plausible that we see close scorelines throughout the entire matchup.