4 Nations Face-Off betting preview: Finland vs Sweden predictions

Finland and Sweden will renew their bitter rivalry Saturday afternoon in a critical 4 Nations Face-Off matchup.

As Finland dropped its opening game of the tournament 6-1 versus the USA, it essentially needs at least one point from this matchup to have a chance of earning a spot in the tournament final, which will take place on Thursday, February 20th at the TD Garden in Boston.

Sweden’s situation is not quite as dire, as it did earn one point from an overtime loss versus Canada on Wednesday, but anything but a win versus the tournament’s bottom-ranked side would greatly reduce its chances of making the final.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favorite betting angles below.

Finland vs Sweden Odds

• Finland Moneyline Odds: +165
• Sweden Moneyline Odds: -200
• Puck Line Odds: Finland +1.5 (-165), Sweden -1.5 (+145)
• Game Total: 5.5 goals (over +105, under -115)
  Above odds courtesy of bet365 and are subject to change.

Handicapping Finland

Finland showed some fight in hanging around for two periods versus a much more well-rounded American side on Thursday evening, but ultimately the team’s expected flaws shined through in the 6-1 loss. USA held a 15-5 edge in high-danger chances, and a 26-11 edge in scoring chances overall.

Even the opening period likely wasn’t as close as the scoreboard suggested, as Finland managed a fairly innocuous goal off of Connor Hellebuyck, while Auston Matthews and Brock Nelson both hit clean crossbars on quality scoring chances.

While the Finns have a number of truly elite offensive stars, their ability to create quality chances was hampered by a shaky defensive core which is by a wide margin the weakest in the tournament. Finland also struggled mightily to defend the rush in the third period, and did not receive overly sharp play from goaltender Juuse Saros.

There are only 11 Finnish defenders in the NHL currently, and three are unavailable for this tournament due to injury.

It can’t be stated enough how greatly Miro Heiskanen’s absence, in particular, hurts the Finnish blue-line. There’s an argument to be made that based on replacement value, it is the equivalent of Team Canada or USA losing any of their very best skaters, because of the greater difference in quality between skaters taking over those minutes.

Of the seven defenders on Finland’s roster, Esa Lindell, Nikko Mikkola and Olli Maatta are the only ones to earn consistent top-four usage at the NHL level this season.

As expected, one of the NHL’s more underrated shutdown defenders in Lindell played huge minutes in Thursday’s loss, recording a whopping 24:31 of ice time, a mark which likely would have been higher if the game had not gotten out of hand in the third.

It wouldn’t be surprising to see Juuso Valimaki draw into the lineup for this matchup, as he could potentially upgrade the third pairing.

While forwards on Finland certainly were in a tougher spot playing against a stacked U.S. roster, there were some big names that had disappointing performances in Thursday’s matchup.

Mikko Rantanen was extremely quiet, recording zero shots on goal and a -1 rating in just over 19 minutes of play. Including his last three games with the Carolina Hurricanes, that’s four straight pointless outings for the hulking winger, who was dealing with a nagging injury ahead of the tournament. Rantanen skated on the top line alongside Aleksander Barkov and Artturi Lehkonen, a unit which will need to be much more effective to find success in this matchup.

Kevin Lankinen was in the starter’s crease at Friday’s practice, and appears likely to be getting a chance to start in this matchup.

While Juuse Saros was certainly not the reason for Finland’s loss versus the USA, Lankinen has put up better numbers than Saros at the NHL level in each of the last two seasons. In 34 games played this season, Lankinen owns a +1.6 GSAx rating and .905 save percentage.

Handicapping Sweden

The Swedes showed plenty of resolve in battling back from two goals down versus Team Canada on Wednesday, in a matchup which looked to have blowout potential in the first period.

Per Sportsnet’s broadcast on Wednesday evening, in best-on-best competition Team Canada has never blown a multi-goal lead. Sweden easily could have put an end to that trend, as it failed to convert some quality chances during the three-on-three overtime period.

Sweden’s defensive core features a number of the best shutdown defenders in the game, and despite the losing result, I’d argue that strength was noteworthy in Wednesday’s matchup, considering all of the incredible offensive talents on the Canadian roster.

The Swedes allowed only two goals during five-on-five play, and allowed only 1.80 expected goals at even strength. Victor Hedman was true to form in posting an assist and +1 rating in 27:15 of time-on-ice, playing alongside a highly underrated shutdown defender in Jonas Brodin.

Mattias Ekholm was also fantastic, making a number of quality defensive plays during his 19:30 of ice time.

Gustav Forsling had two slight miscues as two of Canada’s goals came as he failed to break up passes from Sidney Crosby, though both were far from being his fault entirely.

There’s an argument to be made that the Swedes hold the best blue-line in this tournament, and the unit provides a massive edge in this matchup.

While the greatest strength of Sweden’s roster is certainly its defensive core, it does hold more than enough talent up front to net some high totals. At the time of writing it’s unclear what changes will come to the lineup offensively, but it seems likely that head coach Sam Hallam will shake his units up to some extent entering this matchup.

Sweden’s top line of Filip Forsberg, Elias Pettersson, and Adrian Kempe was not overly dominant, but did hang in respectably considering the difficulty of the minutes they played.

Kempe in particular was excellent, recording yet another goal in a big game, finishing with five shots on goal to go alongside four hits. Kempe has scored nine goals in his last 11 playoff games with the Los Angeles Kings, and will be a player to watch in this matchup.

It was a fairly quiet night for William Nylander, who recorded zero points and two shots on goal. Nylander leads all Swedes with 33 goals at the NHL level this season, and will likely need to provide more offensive upside for the Swedes to steal this tournament. His ability to make great reads on when to cheat for offence could prove notable in this matchup, as he takes on a Finnish side which struggled in transition versus the Americans.

It’s unclear who will be making the start in goal for Sweden in this matchup, and it would be fair to say that Hallam has a tougher decision than his Finnish counterpart. Filip Gustavsson holds a +14.6 GSAx rating and .915 save percentage in 37 appearances with the Minnesota Wild this season, and was solid in the team’s opening matchup.

However it could be tempting to offer former Vezina-winner Linus Ullmark a chance to play. Ullmark holds a +11.1 GSAx rating and .915 save percentage in 25 games played with the Ottawa Senators this season.

Best bet for Finland vs. Sweden

Due to their incredible defensive core and high-quality goaltending options, the Swedes entered this tournament as viable candidates to win it all, especially considering the volatile structure. Their opening performance versus Canada shouldn’t change anybody’s thinking on that.

The Finns will certainly bring a high level of desperation into this matchup, as they take on an underdog role versus their greatest rival. The gap in talent is quite significant, though, and Finland will require a number of relatively unproven blue-liners to elevate their game considerably in order to find a better result in this matchup.

While Finland has earned a reputation of being a tough out in best-on-best tournaments due to its quality structure and committed play as a team, it seems entirely possible that in this specific tournament the Finns will prove to be heavily outmatched.

Life will also be slightly more difficult for the Finns as they are playing as the road team in this matchup, and will not have last change. That should help Hallam prevent Finland’s stacked top two lines from making as much of an impact, and to deploy his most dynamic forwards in favorable spots.

At +145, I see value backing Sweden to cover the puck line, in a tournament where goal differential could easily come into play.

Bet365 has also already posted betting lines for Finland’s matchup versus Canada, and I believe locking in bets on Canada now could be a good idea.

Another ugly performance from Finland could mean it becomes an even larger underdog on Monday, and even if Canada does beat the USA on Saturday and render Monday’s game somewhat meaningless, Canada will still certainly be keen to play a sharp tune-up game ahead of the tournament final on Thursday.