4 Nations Face-Off betting preview: Sweden vs. USA predictions
The round-robin phase of the 4 Nations Face-Off will conclude Monday evening when Team Sweden takes on Team USA.
The importance of this matchup will swing heavily depending on the result of Canada’s matchup with Finland Monday afternoon. If either of Canada or Finland wins in regulation, Sweden will be eliminated from the tournament. If Monday’s opening matchup goes to overtime, Sweden would be able to sneak into the final with a regulation win.
I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favorite betting angles below.
Sweden vs USA Odds
- Sweden Moneyline Odds: +170
- USA Moneyline Odds: -205
- Puck Line Odds: Sweden +1.5 (-160), USA -1.5 (+135)
- Game Total: 6 goals (over +100, under -120)
Above odds courtesy of bet365.
Handicapping Team Sweden
Based on bet365’s price of +450 for the Canadian game to end in a tie, Sweden only has an 18% chance of entering this matchup with a chance to make the final on the line.
While it is fair to fault the Swedes for being unable to secure a win versus Finland, they will certainly feel frustrated if they enter this matchup with nothing on the line, as losing two games in three-on-three overtime ultimately ruined their chances in this tournament.
Aside from a horrible performance in the first period, Sweden played quite well versus Canada and did have some quality opportunities to win the game in overtime.
Considering the likelihood that Finland is the weakest team in the tournament Sweden’s performance on Saturday wasn’t overly strong, but the Finns did seem to play quite a strong team game and it’s tough to lose once again in somewhat of a novelty settlement.
Whether this game ultimately means something or not, we will probably hear a lot of observers state that the U.S. did not give it an honest effort if Sweden does end up with a winning result. That logic might not be overly fair, as Sweden has been right there with its opponents in the first two games, and clearly gave Canada all it could handle.
Sweden’s defensive core is a massive strength, as it holds a number of the game’s very best shutdown defenders, and two quality play-drivers in Erik Karlsson and Rasmus Dahlin, who have both played well in this tournament.
A team with this defensive core certainly has a chance to win in any matchup, even though at this point the Swedes obviously have failed to secure a win.
While I’d say the defensive core has played more or less as expected, a number of the team’s most talented offensive skaters have not been at their best.
William Nylander has shown flashes of highly dynamic play, but overall has been a disappointment with just one assist through two games.
Mika Zibanejad has arguably elevated his game relative to what the level he’s offered the New York Rangers this season, but he has still proven to be a weakness skating as a top-six center relative to what the other nations in this tournament are offering.
Given the difficulty of the matchups he has taken on, Elias Pettersson has done a solid job defensively in this tournament, finishing with even ratings in both matchups and reasonable underlying results. However, he’s registered zero points, and struggled to create quality offensive chances.
Sweden’s second line of Joel Eriksson Ek, Jesper Bratt, and Lucas Raymond has looked the most threatening in the tournament, combining for six points. It’s possible we see head coach Sam Hallam shake up his other three units, but it would be surprising to see that trio broken apart in this matchup.
While Sweden has not officially confirmed a starting goaltender in this matchup, it would be surprising if the start is not offered to Linus Ullmark.
Ullmark came into Saturday’s game after Filip Gustavsson let in two goals on the first four shots he faced, and stopped 15 of 17 shots faced to finish with a +0.13 GSAx rating. The 2022-23 Vezina Trophy winner holds an +11.1 GSAx and .915 save percentage in 25 appearances with the Ottawa Senators this season.
Handicapping USA
While it may be tough for the Americans to truly replicate the level of intensity they might have if this game was more meaningful, they will likely still be keen to play a well-organized team game as they try to stay sharp for Thursday’s final.
Though we should see a reasonably spirited performance from Team USA, this unique spot will likely mean head coach Mike Sullivan rolls his lines more evenly than he would if the game had more significance.
Every member of the bottom-six and third pair are used to playing heavier minutes in the NHL, and it would make sense to see those skaters get more opportunity in this matchup, which could be an interesting thought from a player prop perspective.
Matthew Tkachuk was unable to finish Saturday’s matchup versus Canada due to injury. While it sounds like his injury is relatively minor and that he will be able to play in final, he will be rested in this meaningless matchup.
After Matthew Tkachuk's last shift on Saturday, Team USA 🇺🇸 (mostly) used these lines:
Guentzel – Matthews – Hughes
Miller – Eichel – B. Tkachuk
Nelson – Larkin – Boldy
[Kreider] – Trocheck – Connor
expect something similar tonight if M. Tkachuk doesn't play.
Chris Kreider will draw into the lineup to make his first appearance of the tournament. It appears as though he will take over Matt Tkachuk’s spot on the top power play, and skate alongside Vincent Trocheck and Kyle Connor on the fourth line.
Charlie McAvoy will come out of the lineup on the back end in favour of Jake Sanderson. Chances are McAvoy is also dealing with a minor ailment, as he has played well in the tournament and will likely jump back onto the top pairing for the tournament final.
Sanderson has had an excellent season for the Senators and will surely be eager to take advantage of his opportunity to play in the tournament, and the U.S. defensive core should not be downgraded based on this decision.
Head coach Mike Sullivan is also opting to rest No. 1 goaltender Connor Hellebuyck, who has by a wide margin been the best goaltender in the tournament.
Jake Oettinger will get the start in goal. He holds a +9.3 GSAx rating and .911 save percentage in 40 games played with the Dallas Stars this season.
Best bet for Sweden vs USA
Whether this game is ultimately rendered meaningless for Team Sweden or not, we will likely see it show some pride and bring a spirited performance into this game.
We knew heading into this tournament that the format would lean itself to volatility, and unfortunately for the Swedes, they have ended up on the wrong end of some very close games. Based on their tremendous defensive core and excellent goaltending, they should have an honest chance of making this into a game.
At +170, I see value backing the underdog Swedes showing some pride and looking to close up the tournament with a win.
There also looks to be value backing Dylan Larkin to record over 1.5 shots on goal at +100. He was excellent versus the Canadians on Saturday, after playing only 11 minutes in the tournament opener versus Finland. While Larkin is still on the third line, it does seem clear that the U.s. is playing it safe in terms of protecting its top stars in this matchup, so I expect relatively even minutes to be played by all forwards.
Best Bet: Sweden Moneyline +170 (Play to +165), Dylan Larkin Over 1.5 Shots on Goal (+100, Play to -110)