4 Nations Face-Off betting preview: USA vs. Canada predictions

Nick Martin
Nick Martin
Team Canada forward Brad Marchand (63) celebrates with defenseman Josh Morrissey (44) his goal against Team Sweden in the first period during a 4 Nations Face-Off ice hockey game at Bell Centre.
Credit: David Kirouac-Imagn Images

Hockey fans will finally be treated to another best-on-best matchup between rivals USA and Canada, which will take place in front of what will surely be an electric crowd at the Bell Centre on Saturday evening.

Canada’s tournament opening overtime win over Team Sweden was an instant classic, and was surely an eye-opener for anyone questioning the potential level of play the 4 Nations Face-Off would offer. Captain Sidney Crosby turned back the clock with a spectacular performance, and Team Canada currently sports a 26-0 record in games where he has donned the “C”.

While Canada has never lost with Crosby as captain, it is only a slight betting favorite in this matchup, as it takes on one of the most talented American rosters in history. The U.S. opened up the tournament with a convincing 6-1 win over Finland on Thursday, including four goals combined from Matthew and Brady Tkachuk.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favorite betting angles below.

USA vs Canada Odds

  • USA Moneyline Odds: -105
  • Canada Moneyline Odds: -115
  • Puck Line Odds: USA +1.5 (-275), Canada +1.5 (+225)
  • Game Total: 6.5 goals (over +105, under -125)
    Above odds courtesy of bet365.

Handicapping Team USA

While Finland will likely prove to be the weakest team in the tournament, the U.S. certainly deserves some credit for its performance in Thursday’s opener. It held a 15-5 edge in high-danger scoring chances, and led 26-11 in scoring chances overall.

Connor Hellebuyck let in a softie to Henri Jokiharju early in the first period, which was certainly quite concerning given Hellebuyck’s struggles over the last two NHL postseasons. However, Hellebuyck stabilized in not allowing a goal the rest of the way, finishing with a .952 save percentage and +0.34 GSAx rating.

It’s safe to assume the reigning Vezina winner will get the start in this matchup, and at his best Hellebuyck provides a considerable edge over any of Canada’s goaltending options.

Head coach Mike Sullivan shuffled his offensive lines after the first two periods, moving Brady Tkachuk up to the top unit to play alongside Jack Eichel and Matt Tkachuk. The trio was entirely dominant, and appear likely to remain together in this matchup.

USA’s second line of Jake Guentzel, Auston Matthews and Jack Hughes was also highly effective, combining for four points and generating a number of high-quality looks. In 12:16 of even-strength play, the trio outshot Finland 8-2, and appears likely to remain together in Saturday’s matchup.

Dylan Larkin appears to have taken over Brady Tkachuk’s role on the third line alongside Matt Boldy and JT Miller. Larkin skated just 11:14 versus Finland, but has been tremendous at both ends of the ice for the Detroit Red Wings this season and has the potential to thrive in an improved role.

Even without reigning Norris Trophy winner Quinn Hughes, Team USA’s defensive core features no weak links, and looked to be a clear strength versus Finland. The USA’s defense core is undersized relative to what Canada is offering, but features a number of defenders that excel at driving play the other way with quality puck movement and skating ability.

Zach Werenski was excellent in a team-high 21:45 of TOI, offering the same excellent play at both ends of the ice which will likely earn him a Norris Trophy nomination this season.

While Brock Faber has not been as dominant for the Minnesota Wild this season as he was throughout his incredible rookie campaign in 2023-24, he had a strong showing versus Finland, which saw him elevated to the second pairing.

Handicapping Team Canada

While it’s only one game, Canada’s performance versus Sweden did seem to be an accurate encapsulation of the team’s expected strengths and weaknesses.

The team’s elite offensive stars were all more-or-less true to form, while the play of Jordan Binnington in goal was somewhat concerning, and at times the puck movement in the defensive zone was not ideal.

Crosby, Connor McDavid and Nathan MacKinnon have combined for five Hart trophies, and all three looked relatively true to form in Wednesday’s matchup. While MacKinnon and McDavid are arguably the top two players in the world, it was Crosby turning back the clock to earn player of the game honors for Team Canada.

Overall Canada’s loaded forward corps looked to a significant strength versus Sweden, as expected, and is on paper one of the greatest units ever assembled.

Based on Friday’s practice, it looks as though the only change to Canada’s forward units will come in the form of Travis Konecny coming out of the lineup in favor of Sam Bennett, who will take over Konecny’s spot on the fourth line.

Canada’s blue-line suffered a notable loss versus Sweden, as Shea Theodore was injured early in the game, which forced the team to play with five defenders.

The tough part for all the borderline players included on the rosters in this tournament is that their play will naturally be as an easy target for debate. Colton Parayko and Josh Morrissey both had some tough moments versus Sweden, but were far from being outright bad.

Travis Sanheim practiced on the third pairing alongside Drew Doughty on Friday, and will draw into the lineup in Theodore’s place.

Cale Makar missed Friday’s practice due to an illness, and if he is unable to play in this game, it will be Thomas Harley forced to draw into the lineup on an emergency basis. Jon Cooper stated that in all likelihood Makar will play however, so that situation does seem unlikely.

Canada’s goaltending was viewed as the team’s greatest weakness relative to other nations in this tournament, and Binnington did not exactly dispel that notion with his performance on Wednesday.

Binnington finished Wednesday’s matchup with a -0.71 GSAx rating, stopping 23 of 26 shots faced. While Binnington did make some big saves in overtime to help secure the victory, Adrian Kempe’s goal early in the third period is one he’d surely love to have back.

It does appear as though Binnington will get another chance to start on Saturday. He holds a +0.2 GSAx rating and .896 save percentage in 39 appearances with the St. Louis Blues this season.

Best bet for USA vs. Canada

This should be one of the best hockey games of the year, as these rival nations finally face-off once again in a matchup which will feature an absurd amount of talent on the ice.

Canada’s offensive core arguably is the better unit, as it is lead by arguably the top two players in the game in McDavid and MacKinnon, who are supported by a number of other top-30 NHL’ers.

Aside from their top defensive pairing of Toews and Makar, there is an argument to be made that the USA’s defense corps is a better unit, and may do a slightly better job of helping to generate offense in this tournament.

If Canada can do a solid job of generating scoring chances it may still not mean a lofty offensive output, as obviously Hellebuyck can steal any game and deserves to be viewed as the top goaltender alive right now.

It seems likely that we will see a closely fought matchup between these two rivals, and I’d be surprised if either team won by more than two goals barring an empty-netter. While both teams feature a ton of offensive firepower, they also hold a number of the game’s best two-way forwards and top shutdown defenders.

The last four matchups between these rival nations have averaged just five goals per game, with neither side winning by more than two goals. While that may not hold a ton of handicapping significance given that dates back to 2010, it does seem plausible that we see a similar game script in which neither side makes many mistakes defensively.

At -125, I see value backing the game to stay under 6.5 goals, and I also see value backing the game to require overtime at +325.

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