Betting on Ovechkin to break Gretzky’s goal record: Latest odds, strength of schedule, strategies

Alex Ovechkin is poised to break Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goal-scoring record—it’s just a matter of when. Gretzky’s record of 894 goals has stood since March 29, 1999, and is one of 61 records “The Great One” held at retirement, many of which remain untouchable. However, Ovechkin is on track to claim the top spot, whether it’s late this season or early next.

NHL All-Time Goals Leaders

1. Wayne Gretzky (894)
2. Alex Ovechkin (875)
3. Gordie Howe (801)
4. Jaromir Jagr (766)
5. Brett Hull (741)
6. Marcel Dionne (731)
7. Phil Esposito (717)
8. Mike Gartner (708)
9. Mark Messier (694)
10. Steve Yzerman (692)

Ovechkin’s Progress This Season

Ovechkin notched his 22nd goal of the season in Washington’s 3-0 win over Seattle on Thursday, bringing his career total to 875—just 20 goals shy of breaking Gretzky’s record. While he started the season on a torrid pace, injuries and recent form have tempered expectations.

The 39-year-old fractured his fibula on November 18 in a game against Utah, causing him to miss 16 games. Prior to the injury, he had 15 goals in his first 18 games, putting him on pace to break the record this season. Since returning on December 28, he’s scored seven goals in 14 games, a more modest 0.5 goals-per-game pace.

For Ovechkin to reach 895 goals this season, he’ll likely need several multi-goal performances. Before his injury, he had four such games this season, and he tallied nine multi-goal efforts in both 2021-22 and 2022-23.

Ovechkin’s Durability and the Capitals’ Schedule

Ovechkin’s longevity has been a major factor in his climb up the scoring leaderboard. Over his 20-year career, he’s only missed 75 games. If he plays the Capitals’ remaining 34 games and maintains his current pace, he’ll be within striking distance of the record by season’s end.

Fortunately for Ovechkin, the Capitals have the easiest remaining schedule based on bet365’s regular season point totals. With weaker opponents on the horizon, there’s potential for more empty-net goals—Ovechkin already has five this season.

Team	Strength of Schedule
Chicago Blackhawks	93.0
Detroit Red Wings	92.8
Vancouver Canucks	92.1
Montreal Canadiens	92.0
Anaheim Ducks	91.8
St. Louis Blues	91.8
Boston Bruins	91.7
Seattle Kraken	91.3
Calgary Flames	91.2
New York Islanders	91.2
Los Angeles Kings	91.2
Winnipeg Jets	91.1
New York Rangers	91.1
San Jose Sharks	91.1
Buffalo Sabres	91.0
Columbus Blue Jackets	91.0
Colorado Avalanche	90.5
Dallas Stars	90.3
Minnesota Wild	90.1
Philadelphia Flyers	90.1
New Jersey Devils	89.5
Edmonton Oilers	89.5
Pittsburgh Penguins	89.5
Toronto Maple Leafs	89.3
Utah Hockey Club	88.7
Vegas Golden Knights	88.6
Carolina Hurricanes	88.1
Ottawa Senators	87.8
Nashville Predators	87.6
Tampa Bay Lightning	87.5
Florida Panthers	87.2
Washington Capitals	87.2

Betting Markets on Ovechkin’s Record Chase

Given his injury and current scoring pace, oddsmakers are skeptical about Ovechkin reaching the milestone this season:

Odds courtesy of bet365.

Will Ovechkin Score 895 Goals This Season?

• Yes: +175
• No: -225

Which Team Will He Break the Record Against?

This market is an emotional play for bettors. Predicting the exact team he’ll score against would be insanely hard, and sportsbooks know it’s a crapshoot.

• Columbus Blue Jackets: +600
• New York Islanders: +700
• Carolina Hurricanes: +1000
• Pittsburgh Penguins: +1400
• Chicago Blackhawks: +2500
• Boston Bruins: +4000
• Buffalo Sabres: +5000
• Minnesota Wild: +6000
• Winnipeg Jets: +10000

Betting strategy

Ovechkin may not break the record this season, but his historic durability, elite scoring ability, and favorable schedule make it inevitable in the near future. While there’s some value in betting on Ovechkin to break the record this season at +175 odds, a more practical approach would be to back him to score in favorable matchups against weaker defenses. With his consistent scoring odds typically around +125, targeting individual games might offer better opportunities.