An audit of our 32 bold predictions for the 2022-23 season

Credit: Patrick Kane (© James Guillory-USA TODAY Sports)

Making preseason NHL predictions is a lot like throwing darts at your local watering hole on Tuesday nights.

There will be the rare bullseye, many more misses, and some shots that just make you look plain drunk.

Every season, there are at least a few things that happen that almost no one saw coming – like the Boston Bruins challenging just about every regular season record, or Ryan Nugent-Hopkins hitting 100 points.

With just over a week left on the slate, it’s time to look back and audit our 32 bold predictions from October and add up all the scores:

1. Move over MacKinnon. On July 1, the first day eligible, Auston Matthews will sign the NHL’s first-ever max contract to stay with the Toronto Maple Leafs: eight years x $16.7 million. That rounds up to $134 million, with a little flair for his jersey number. Brad Richards (2006) is the only player to sign for the maximum 20 percent of the salary cap, but it was only a five-year deal, not the maximum term.

Verdict: This looks like a long shot. Matthews will no doubt command a pretty penny, but that price tag is a reach, particularly after a rather disappointing season as he’s nursed an apparent hand injury that’s held him back from hitting 40 goals.

2. It’s Showtime on Broadway. Patrick Kane will be traded to the New York Rangers and sign a long-term extension. He’ll be reunited with Artemi Panarin to chase a fourth career Stanley Cup.

Verdict: Bingo. Well, we’re still waiting on the extension, and that may or may not happen. But Kane does look really good in Broadway Blue.

3. Kane will have a twinge of doubt about his decision to leave when the Chicago Blackhawks win the 2023 Draft Lottery and earn the right to select generational talent Connor Bedard. Yes, this year, it is #SuckHardForBedard.

Verdict: Tuesday night was a crushing win for the Blackhawks, who will need some help in the final week of the season to land the best odds for Bedard. The Draft Lottery is scheduled for May 8.

4. Four straight trips to Final? Anything is possible for Tampa Bay Lightning, who will win the Atlantic Division. Some are predicting a drop-off. I don’t see it, not with a Core Four that includes Andrei Vasilevskiy, Victor Hedman, Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov.

Verdict: A couple weeks ago, I would’ve said this was a bad bet, but the Bolts seem to have flipped the switch into playoff mode. They’ve won three straight, Vasilevskiy has two shutouts, and they’ve outscored the opposition by a 14-1 margin. Look out for the Lightning.

5. Five players will be 50-goal scorers in 2022-23: Auston Matthews, Leon Draisaitl, Kirill Kaprizov, Kyle Connor and Connor McDavid – who will hit the mark for the first time in his career. Alex Ovechkin and Chris Kreider will fall short.

Verdict: Woof. Went 2-for-5, only hitting on McDavid and Draisaitl. David Pastrnak was the real miss. Ultimately, six players have a shot at 50: Brayden Point, Mikko Rantanen and don’t count out Tage Thompson, who has six games left and has netted four hat tricks (!) this season.

6. “Dollar Bill” Kirill Kaprizov will win the Hart Trophy with an electrifying season, becoming the first Hart winner in Minnesota Wild franchise history. Kaprizov, 25, finished seventh in Hart voting last season after a 47-goal and 108-point campaign.

Verdict: Nope. Kaprizov has had a fine season, but his production isn’t anywhere near where it was last year. He’s missed 12 games to injury and the Wild have oddly been better and scored more without him.

7. Bruce There It Was. Vancouver Canucks coach Bruce Boudreau will be the first coaching casualty of the season. Still can’t shake the apparent friction that existed between Boudreau and the front office last spring when he asked for and did not receive an extension. The Canucks’ stars haven’t impressed in the preseason and that might mean a slow start.

Verdict: Bullseye. Boudreau was not just the first coach fired this season, he’s been the only coach fired.

8. The Great Eight, Alex Ovechkin, will fall short of a record-setting 10th 50-goal season. Ovechkin will end up with 45 goals, passing Gordie Howe for second all-time to give him 825 for his career – 69 short of tying Wayne Gretzky’s all-time goals mark. Nice.

Verdict: Not entirely ready to call that race, as Ovechkin could do Ovechkin-like things, but it’s looking good.

9. Western New York kid Alex Tuch will be named the next captain of the Buffalo Sabres. Tuch gave the Sabres a much-needed shot in the arm last year, and if Peyton Krebs can take the next step, then GM Kevyn Adams will have made the best of a tough trade situation with Jack Eichel.

Verdict: Swing and a miss. Kyle Okposo was deservedly named Buffalo’s captain, although he’s in the final year of his deal. Eight teams (a quarter of the league) currently has a vacancy at captain.

10. Betano Team Point Total Stone Cold Mortal Lock No. 1: St. Louis Blues OVER 95.5 points. Usually when I see a line that doesn’t make sense, I ask what oddsmakers know that I do not. I can’t figure this one out for the life of me. The Blues had 109 points last year. Does anyone see a 14-plus point regression coming? I don’t.

Verdict: Don’t take gambling tips from me, kids.

11. With renewed interest and buzz as the Sens’ rebuild bears fruit, late owner Eugene Melnyk’s daughters, Anna and Olivia, will reach an agreement to sell the Ottawa Senators franchise and maintain a minority stake. Melnyk left the team to his children upon his passing on March 28, 2022.

Verdict: This one maybe wasn’t that bold, but it’s kind of odd to think back to October and remember that the Senators actually were not up for sale then. The Sens should have a new owner before June – at a valuation that no one could have predicted then.

12. The Los Angeles Kings will be kings of the Pacific Division, winning their first division title since 1991. The team that took the Edmonton Oilers to Game 7 without Drew Doughty and Viktor Arvidsson quietly added 85-point scorer Kevin Fiala and has some of the best young talent in the league.

Verdict: This pick drew a ton of side eyes and the Kings have put up a hell of a fight. They have a real shot to advance out of the Pacific Division side of the bracket. But the division crown looks like it’s going to the Golden Knights.

13. The 2019 No. 1 overall pick, Jack Hughes, will vault into the 100-point club. Hughes busted out with 56 points in 49 games last year, which is a 94-point pace, but he’ll need to prove he can stay on the ice. He’ll do that in the first year of his $64 million deal with the Devils.

Verdict: Damn. This one was looking so good for so long. Hughes posted 81 points in his first 64 games of the season. He’s slowed a little lately with 10 points in his last 10 contests. That probably won’t be enough to get him there.

14. Matty is the Man to Beat. Seattle Kraken center Matty Beniers will take home the Calder Trophy as the NHL’s rookie of the year. Beniers enters with the third-best odds to win, behind Anaheim’s Mason McTavish and Buffalo blueliner Owen Power, but piled up nine points in a 10-game sample size last spring after leaving Michigan.

Verdict: Looks like a win? Here’s the funny part: If I were to cast a ballot today for the Calder Trophy, I’d have Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner in the No. 1 spot. It’s not to take anything away from Beniers, who has been sublime in Seattle. I just don’t know if the Oilers make the playoffs without Skinner.

15. The Toronto Maple Leafs will win a playoff round for the first time since 2004, but GM Kyle Dubas will part ways with the organization after his contract expires. That Maple Leaf Sports and Entertainment has allowed Dubas to enter the final year of his deal without an extension has other teams salivating and has to at least leave Dubas wondering. His status might have an impact on prediction No. 1, too.

Verdict: Jury’s still out. Nothing would surprise me in Toronto.

16. Playoff Teams: Tampa Bay, Toronto, Florida, Boston, Carolina, New York Rangers, Pittsburgh and Washington (East); Colorado, St. Louis, Minnesota, Nashville, Winnipeg, Los Angeles, Edmonton and Calgary (West).

Verdict: East was certainly better than West. Looks like we’ll realistically end up 12 for 16. Not horrible, given that five or six teams make/miss the playoffs every season that few can see coming.

17. With all eyes on Patrick Kane, Detroit Red Wings captain Dylan Larkin will be traded before the March 3 trade deadline. Larkin is quietly entering the final year of his deal and is a pending UFA. He holds a no-trade clause, but that could be a big change for a Michigan kid who has played almost exclusively in the Detroit area his entire life.

Verdict: This never really gained momentum, mostly because Steve Yzerman and Larkin both knew that he didn’t want to leave Detroit. That reduced leverage, although Larkin still bested Bo Horvat on the center market, signing an eight-year, $69.6 million deal on March 1 – two days before the deadline.

18. Prepare for more chaos in Vegas. Golden Knights GM Kelly McCrimmon will be the first GM fired this season, after six chairs changed hands league-wide last year. It’s no secret that owner Bill Foley did a deep dive on McCrimmon’s job security after missing the playoffs for the first time and McCrimmon enters on shaky ground. For the second summer in a row, he was forced to unload a critical piece (Marc-Andre Fleury, Max Pacioretty) for nothing because of poor salary cap management.

Verdict: Embarrassing take. The Golden Knights have been incredibly resilient, particularly after losing Mark Stone. They’ve also endured a game of goaltending musical chairs and mostly mediocre play from Jack Eichel relative to his $10 million cap hit.

19. For good measure, Max Pacioretty will be the NHL’s Comeback Player of the Year, coming off a torn Achilles tendon. There’s a chance Pacioretty is even back before the end of the calendar year. “We already know who our trade deadline acquisition is,” Hurricanes coach Rod Brind’Amour said on the DFO Rundown podcast.

Verdict: Ouch. Literally. Pacioretty looked good, scoring three goals in his first four games back. But then re-tore his Achilles in Game No. 5, putting him on the shelf for the remainder of the season. Next year?

20. Betano Team Point Total Stone Cold Mortal Lock No. 2: Columbus Blue Jackets OVER 79.5 points. They had 81 last year and they’re much improved. You’re welcome.

Verdict: I think this one is actually worse than the Blues over/under pick from No. 10.

21. The Vezina won’t have to travel very far, crossing over the East River. Islanders stalwart Ilya Sorokin will capture the 2023 Vezina Trophy, out-battling Rangers counterpart and reigning winner Igor Shesterkin.

Verdict: Sorokin is certainly a candidate, leading the league in shutouts. But this trophy belongs to Boston’s Linus Ullmark, who is closing in on the goaltending Triple Crown (tops in wins, save percentage and goals against-average).

22. The Ottawa Senators will trade for Jakob Chychrun before the New Year, ending what feels like a year-long pillow fight between Chychrun and the Coyotes after he’s made it abundantly clear he’d like to play elsewhere. The Sens have shown the most interest, with the Kings also in the mix, and he’d be a solid boost on a burgeoning backend.

Verdict: Hell yes. The only thing we got wrong was the date. But connecting team to play was a big win.

23. After a tumultuous offseason and preseason, the Winnipeg Jets will bounce back to make the Stanley Cup playoffs. Yes, I picked them to win the Cup last season, and shame on me. But I’m doubling down. This roster has too much talent to fade into oblivion.

Verdict: After Calgary’s soul sucking loss to Chicago on Tuesday, can finally breathe easier on this one.

24. Yes, that means Rick Bowness will win the Jack Adams Award as coach of the year after winning over the curmudgeonly Jets with his infectious positivity. Bowness, 67, has been a coach in the league almost as long as the Jack Adams Award has been in existence. His first year as a Jets coach was in 1981-82, assisting the Jack Adams Award winner in Tom Watt.

Verdict: The Jets’ two-month swoon will cost Bowness this Award. He didn’t receive enough consideration for it at the midway point of the season, though. Feels like it is Jim Montgomery’s to lose, although Bruce Cassidy, Lindy Ruff and Dean Evason should be in the mix.

25. Two-time Stanley Cup champion Phil Kessel will become the NHL’s new Iron Man on Oct. 25 when he skates in his 990th consecutive game in San Jose. The Golden Knights forward will surpass 1,000 games and a record that will never be broken. The next closest active streak is Carolina’s Brent Burns (679 games) and no other active player is close to 500.

Verdict: Like shooting fish in a barrel. Does anyone do that?

26. Nice to know you, Naz. The emergence of Alex Newhook as Colorado’s second line center will make the Avalanche forget about Nazem Kadri, the 87-point scorer who was a huge part of their Stanley Cup run. Newhook will take a huge step forward with a 60-point campaign and plenty of ice as the Avs win their second straight Central Division title.

Verdict: No, no, no, no. Newhook hasn’t emerged as relied upon. J.T. Compher has been the guy. The Avs traded for Lars Eller to bolster their center position. Kadri is one of the reasons why they aren’t looked at as the same team to beat as last spring.

27. New Florida Panthers coach Paul Maurice will pass Lindy Ruff and the late Al Arbour to move into fifth all-time with 800 career victories. This is no Florida retirement gig for Maurice, who oozes passion and wants to win. The Panthers won’t cruise to 122 points like last year, but they’ll undoubtedly be a threat.

Verdict: Yes, Maurice did join the 800 wins club, but he’s still 16 short of Ruff (and counting). Has Maurice enjoyed his return to the bench? That might be a storyline to watch in Florida.

28. While the Arizona Coyotes appear to be a darling in Tempe selling out a 5,000-seat Mullett Arena at Arizona State Univ., there will be a 30-percent drop in Arizona’s contribution to league revenue. Ticket sales will be on par with last season in a larger arena, but consider losses in corporate sales, suites, signage, parking, all of which will add up.

Verdict: This was always going to be a hard one to quantify. We’ll see. What has been easier to qualify is that the shine has worn off the Coyotes’ time at Mullett Arena. Tickets may be sold, but the building still has empty seats (on television) and it’s a novelty that isn’t a good look for anyone.

29. After resurrecting his career, Oilers forward Evander Kane will net a career-best 40 goals in Edmonton. He is the best pure stylistic fit on the planet to play with Connor McDavid.

Verdict: Felt like I was robbed on this one. That unfortunate and ugly skate cut injury in November cost Kane a few months of his season. Even still, he has 15 goals in 37 games, which puts him on pace for 33 over a full season. So he still isn’t quite there. But watch out for Kane to be a force in the playoffs.

30. Down Highway 2 in Calgary, Flames center Elias Lindholm will win the Selke Trophy for the first time in his career. Lindholm was sublime last year, finishing runner-up to Patrice Bergeron, and though the faces have changed, Lindholm will be seen as a driver to the success of his linemates – now including Jonathan Huberdeau.

Verdict: Lindholm and Tyler Toffoli are the only two Flames who exceeded expectations this season relative to salary cap hit. And Lindholm still probably isn’t satisfied with his year. There is no Selke in his sights. It’s probably time to rename the award for Patrice Bergeron, who is likely to win again.

31. We’ll revel in another two-week run of hockey’s best drama in the Battle of Alberta, this time with the Calgary Flames avenging last year’s five-game loss. With the additions of Huberdeau, Kadri and MacKenzie Weegar, the Flames will be better suited for playoff success, and they’ll advance to the Stanley Cup Final for the first time since 2004.

Verdict: We’d require 1,500 words or more to explain the levels of disappointment this season in Calgary. The frustration and friction that is emanating through the franchise is palpable. Changes are coming.

32. This time next year, the Carolina Hurricanes will be unfurling the franchise’s second Stanley Cup banner. Perhaps the most balanced and consistent team in hockey, the Canes will knock off the Flames, as Rod Brind’Amour will become the first since Lester Patrick in 1928 to coach and captain the same franchise to a Stanley Cup.

Verdict: Not feeling great about this one, particularly after Andrei Svechnikov’s season-ending ACL injury. The Canes are a middling 7-5-1 since then and don’t have the juice of a real Cup contender right now. Hey, at least my Cup pick made the playoffs this year. That’s more than I could say last year.

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An audit of our 32 bold predictions for the 2022-23 season

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