Analysis: The key to the Kings’ division title hopes is…Gabe Vilardi?

Mike McKenna
Mike McKenna(MikeMcKenna56)
Analysis: The key to the Kings’ division title hopes is…Gabe Vilardi?

If Gabriel Vilardi scores 20 goals for Los Angeles this season, the Kings will challenge the Edmonton Oilers for the top spot in the NHL’s Pacific Division.

I know, I’m making a lot of assumptions with that statement. Maybe the Oilers won’t be the pick of the litter. The Calgary Flames are lurking. And the Vegas Golden Knights looked solid Tuesday night, beating the Kings 4-3 on a Mark Stone tally with under a minute remaining in regulation.

But I absolutely believe that the Kings are going to be in the mix. In our Daily Faceoff preseason predictions, I took the Kings to finish third in the Pacific. Behind Edmonton and Calgary but ahead of Vegas. And firmly in the Stanley Cup playoffs.

The Kings took a major step forward last season, pushing the Oilers to seven games in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs. Even though L.A. lost out, it was a glimpse into the young talent starting to produce at the NHL level.

Arthur Kaliyev scored 14 times – six on the power play – despite averaging less than 13 minutes of ice time per game. Sean Durzi showed signs of becoming a top-tier puck-moving defenseman. And Adrian Kempe, who represented the Kings at the 2021-22 NHL All-Star game, found the back of the net 35 times.

All three of the aforementioned players have room to grow. But none more so than Vilardi, who I believe has only scratched the surface of his talent at the NHL level. And to me, that’s the biggest question facing the Kings.

Can Vilardi live up to the lofty expectations of being the No. 11 overall draft pick of the 2017 NHL Draft?

That’s a hard question to answer because the threshold for success is fluid. The value of a first-round draft pick can be measured in different ways. But for Vilardi, I think the metric is pretty clear: L.A. needs him to score. Like this laser off the crossbar Tuesday night.

There’s a lot to like in this clip. Vilardi, along with linemates Quinton Byfield and Alex Iaffalo, outworks the Golden Knights low in the offensive zone and creates several scoring chances before the puck eventually finds the back of the net.

Vilardi wins the initial battle against Golden Knights defenseman Ben Hutton. He stops behind the net. Vilardi jumps to open ice and calls for the puck from Byfield. Then he’s able to find a tiny window for his shot to get past Vegas goaltender Logan Thompson.

Details matter. And Vilardi does just about everything right leading up to his goal. But listen closely. ESPN play-by-play announcer Bob Wischusen mentions that Kings head coach Todd McLellan thought Vilardi was probably the best preseason player for L.A.. Similar thoughts were expressed in the coach’s post-game press conference.

When McLellan says that Vilardi has earned the opportunity to be in key situations, that’s very telling to me. A coach doesn’t want to hide players. Or feel uncomfortable with them in tense moments.

And that’s where I think so much of the Kings season is riding on Vilardi. If McLellan can continue to trust him, the 23-year old from Kingston, Ontario will play a big part in rounding out the depth of the Kings’ scoring.

Last season I felt the bottom six was lacking for L.A.. But with the acquisition of Kevin Fiala this summer, and Viktor Arvidsson healthy again, suddenly the Kings look deep.

Not long ago I thought Alex Iaffalo had an outside chance of making the U.S. Olympic team. He was playing top-six minutes in L.A.. Now he’s on the third line with Vilardi and Byfield, which is actually a plus for the Kings. It means they’re deep. And Vilardi now has skill and speed to play with.

It’s clear to me that the Kings have a more diversified attack at even strength. But I really think Vilardi has the chance to make the most noise on the power play.

The Kings need it. Last season, Los Angeles was 26th in the NHL with the man advantage, converting at a rate of just 12.5 percent.

During his 89-game NHL career, six of Vilardi’s 18 goals have come with the man advantage. But I expect that total to rise. Not just because of the players surrounding him on the Kings. Because of what happened last year when Vilardi was sent to the AHL.

Sometimes a young prospect is rushed into a situation. And I think that might have happened early in Vilardi’s career. I don’t think he was quite ready for the NHL. When the Kings sent him to their minor league affiliate in Ontario, it was probably the best thing the franchise could have done.

Vilardi went to the AHL and dominated. He was nearly a point-per-game player. Vilardi scored 15 goals in 39 games, eight times on the power play.

Being a major contributor had to be good for Vilardi, regardless of it being in the minors. And with that comes confidence and maturity. As a high first-round draft pick, the pressure can be devastating on a player when demoted. I’m impressed that Vilardi was able to cast aside the noise.

Back to my prediction. Twenty goals is completely attainable for Vilardi. He’s already eating up minutes that Dustin Brown used to get. And judging from Tuesday, he has chemistry playing alongside Byfield and Iaffalo. The Kings have three solid lines and a defense crops that can move the puck. Vilardi will benefit from all of that.

But confidence is paramount. And it has to come with trust. From the coaching staff and teammates. Last season I saw flashes of steady play from Vilardi. But it wasn’t consistent.

Bringing it every night is a must for Vilardi. He’s done it so far this season. And to me, he’s riding a wave of confidence that is a direct result of spending the bulk of last season in the AHL.

It’s hard to pin a team’s chances of success on one player. But the Kings have waited patiently with Vilardi. And if he can pot 20 while skating on L.A.’s third line, watch out. The Kings will have the firepower to take on Edmonton.

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