Analyzing Early ADPs to find 2024 Fantasy Hockey Draft Values

If you read this post last year, you probably ended up with Dougie Hamilton (22G / 52A / 74pts) in the ninth round, Roope Hintz (37G / 38A / 75pts) in the 12th round, Tage Thompson (47G / 47A / 94pts) in the 12th round, and Adrian Kempe (41G / 26A / 67pts) in the 14th round. All four were massive draft-day steals, and this season, they are carrying much earlier ADPs.

Hamilton – ADP 52.0 (5th)
Hintz – ADP 25.9 (3rd)
Thompson – ADP 12.8 (2nd)
Kempe – ADP 103.8 (9th)

Those were the standouts in last year’s posts, but Mark Scheifele had a 42-goal, 68-point season as a 12th-round pick, and Tyler Toffoli had a career-best 73 points as a 14th-round pick.

Finding the correct mid-to-late-round picks is the key to fantasy success. Today, we’re one day away from the start of the NFL season, so Fantasy Hockey ADPs are in their infancy stage, but they typically hold pretty strong throughout the month of September. We will revisit the ADPs closer to the start of the season, but for now, let’s look at the early ADP values.

John Carlson (WSH – D) – ADP: 91.9

Carlson is getting up there in age; he’ll be 34 in January, but he’s been an elite offensive producer throughout his career. He was limited to 40 games last year after taking a slap shot to the head on December 23rd. He returned to the lineup in late March and didn’t miss a beat, posting eight points (1G / 7A) in 10 games to finish the season. Carlson remains the Capitals’ No.1 defenseman and will play gigantic minutes at 5v5, PP and on the PK. They certainly aren’t the favourites in the Eastern Conference, but Washington is still talented enough for Carlson to put up big totals in his 15th season. He’s seventh among blueliners in points-per-game (0.85) over the last three years but is being drafted as the No.17 defenseman right now. Don’t let him drop that far.

Jonathan Marchessault (VGK – RW) – ADP: 93.7

It’s surprising to see Marchessault dropping into the eighth round after he led the playoffs in goals (13) and winning the Conn Smythe trophy. Marchessault displayed tremendous chemistry with Jack Eichel and Ivan Barbashev, a line that Vegas will lean on heavily again in 2024. Marchessault has always been a steady fantasy contributor, but during the postseason, he showcased he could be a point-per-game player while playing next to Eichel. If you don’t have to pay a premium for the reigning Conn Smythe winner, take him as one of your RW options in the mid-rounds.

Troy Terry (ANA – RW) – ADP: 132.1

There was hesitancy to trust Terry’s 2022 numbers due to his extremely high 19.3 SH% and 12.2 on-ice SH%, and his number expectedly took a dip in 2023. His SH% dropped to 12.2 percent, but it was still good for 23 goals. Another 37-goal season is probably out of the question, but he’s capable of producing close to 30 goals and 30-plus assists for an improving Ducks team in 2024. Terry is locked into a marquee role in Anaheim and that will allow him to maintain a strong floor at a weak position and it’s difficult to ignore him in the 11th round.

Valeri Nichushkin (COL – RW) – ADP: 134.8

Nichushkin missed Games 3-7 of Round 1 during the 2023 playoffs due to a bizarre incident at a Seattle hotel, but he’s been cleared to play in the 2023-24 season. Nichushkin had another good season with the Avalanche in 2022-23, registering 47 points (17G / 30A) in just 53 games. Nichushkin has broken out in the last two seasons but has missed a combined 49 games. Durability is a concern for the 28-year-old, but his 12th-round ADP lessens those worries. He has averaged 30 goals and 41 assists (71 points) per 82 games during those two seasons, showing his upside if he plays a full season. Nichushkin’s game-to-game floor is sturdy, thanks to his elite usage. He plays over 20 minutes per game in a fantastic top-6 and top power-play unit. Right wing is a thin position, so getting Nichushkin late in drafts will be a big pickup for your fantasy team.

Shea Theodore (VGK – D) – ADP: 143.8

Despite playing just 55 games last season, Theodore finished Fantasy’s No.31 defenseman, scoring eight goals with 33 assists (41 points). He was also outstanding during the Golden Knights’ run to the Stanley Cup, posting a 51-point per 82-game pace. This season, he’s being drafted as the No.35 defenseman for some reason. His shot volume is outstanding, averaging over 2.7 SOG/gm over the last five seasons. With that volume, you can easily expect double-digit goals in a healthy season. Additionally, Theodore has averaged 44 assists per 82 games since 2020, giving him 15-goal, 40-assist upside if he can stay on the ice. Right now, you can draft him as your No.3/No.4 defenseman, and he can finish as a low-end No.1/high-end No.2.

Zach Werenski (CBJ – D) – ADP: 156.6

Werenski is one of the names I expect to climb up draft boards throughout the fall. Werenski missed 69 games last year but is expected to be ready for the start of 2023-24 and will be back as the Blue Jackets’ No.1 defenseman. Columbus struggled for most of 2023, but they’ve made some significant additions in Adam Fantilli, Ivan Provorov and Damon Severson in the offseason. They should be a much-improved team in 2024, and the return of Werenski will be a big reason for it.

Before getting hurt last year, Werenski had eight points (3G / 5A) in 13 games and is tied for 16th among defensemen in points-per-game (0.65) over the last four seasons. Right now, he’s the No.38 defenseman off the board, which is absurd. It’s an absolute no-brainer to take the 26-year-old much earlier than that. He’s a near lock for double-digit goals and 30-plus assists if he can stay healthy–he’s missed 40.3 percent of games since 2020.

Nikolaj Ehlers (WPG – LW) – ADP: 158.2

In recent years, durability has been the only thing keeping Ehlers away from fantasy stardom. Over the last three seasons, he’s posted an impressive 0.90 points per game but has missed a combined 66 games. Before that, he played in every game in three out of four seasons from 2017 to 2020, so it’s not out of the question that he could play an entire season. If he did, he could be a 30-plus goal, 40-plus assist player in the 14th round. The discounted draft capital makes it much easier to gamble on him staying healthy in 2024. You could be rewarded handsomely.

Joseph Woll (TOR – G) – ADP: 170.7

The 2023 season was the best of Woll’s career. He was dominant in the AHL, going 16-4-1 and jumping to the NHL. With the Maple Leafs, he was 6-1-0 with a 2.16 GAA and .932 SV%, earning him a permanent spot on the roster for 2024. His teammate, Ilya Samsonov, has never started more than 40 games in a season during his career, so there’s a pretty good chance that Woll will start close to half of the Maple Leafs’ games this season. Samsonov is going in the seventh round (ADP: 80.4), but you can get Woll in the 15th. The Maple Leafs are one of the best teams in the NHL and were strong defensively last season, making them one of the more desirable teams to target goalies from. He’s an extremely low-risk/high-reward option this season.