Are the Montreal Canadiens actually good?

Credit: Eric Bolte-Imagn Images

On Dec. 1, 2024, the Montreal Canadiens found themselves last in the Eastern Conference and just one point ahead of the Chicago Blackhawks for the bottom spot overall.

Right now, they’re two points out of the second Wildcard position.

On any given night, everything can change drastically. There’s still half the season to go, but the fact that all but one team in the Atlantic Division – the Buffalo Sabres – have a realistic chance of making the post-season is wild.

And the Canadiens are one of those teams.

Since Dec. 15 – the halfway point of the month, more or less – the Canadiens sit second in the entire NHL with 19 points and a 9-2-1 record. They’re just one point behind the Vegas Golden Knights, which would have been wild to think about earlier in the season. The Canadiens have the second most goals-for-per-game at 3.58, the second-fewest goals allowed at 2.17, and top 10 ratings in both power play (26.5) and penalty kill (86.8) percentage.

That’s a 12-game stretch. That might not be a big sample, but it’s promising for the team’s playoff push.

Cole Caufield has stayed hot all season long, leading the way with 23 goals over 42 games. That’s under the 50-goal pace he was on at one point, but he’s still tracking for more than 40 for the first time. He and leading scorer Nick Suzuki have 13 points each over the past 12 games, while six Habs have at least eight points.

Jake Evans is also on pace for a career-best 20-goal, 45-point season, which would be a massive step up from his previous best of 29 points in 2021-22. All that, while still being fully committed defensively, has made him extra valuable as he chases a new contract this summer. The same goes for 23-year-old rookie Emil Heineman, who also looks on track to crack 20 goals. He’s been one of Montreal’s most productive forwards as of late, with eight of his 17 points coming in the past month alone.

“I’ve been really trying to play around with a nickname for the Jake Evans line, and recently, I called them the “dream line,” because they’re a coach’s dream,” Canadiens color analyst Jon Goyens said on a recent episode of Daily Faceoff Live. “They can go out there against anybody in the league, and they’re consistently a pain in the ass to play against, and they can chip away offensively.

But perhaps the most important player has been Lane Hutson, who looks to be the top pick for the Calder Trophy right now. Not only is he second on the team in average ice time at more than 22 minutes, but he has two goals and 12 points in his past 12 games. That includes a team-leading seven power-play points as the team’s No. 1 quarterback. He’s on pace for 63 points – and if he reaches that, he’ll be just the 10th rookie defenseman to do so and first among active NHLers. Scouts knew Hutson was good but expected him to struggle at points as he adjusted his high-flying two-way game to the big leagues. Clearly, he’s doing quite fine.

Kirby Dach is still struggling, which doesn’t help. Alex Newhook is on track for fewer than 20 points for the first time in his career – even including his rookie season when he spent time in the AHL. But Juraj Slafkovsky is starting to play a bit better as of late, getting him closer to matching his 50-point output from 2024-25. Patrik Laine has missed quite a bit of time, but the fact that he’s still on pace for 35 goals in 54 games is wild. His 5-on-5 production needs to improve, given all his goals have come on the man advantage, but he’s still being productive.

The Canadiens are getting quality goaltending, too. Rookie backup Jakub Dobes has a perfect 3-0-0 record with a .959 save percentage and just three goals allowed. Samuel Montembeault’s advanced analytics haven’t been that great recently, but he gets the tougher matchups and has still found ways to rack up wins.

Analytically, the Canadiens are fifth in the NHL over the past month with a 54.39 shots-for percentage at 5-on-5. They’re also fifth with a 58.93 goals-for percentage and 10th with a 52.59 scoring chances-for percentage. In basically every major metric, the Canadiens are near the top.

“The reality is that they spend nine seconds less in their zone through this stretch (over the last month),” Goyens added. “Coach Martin St. Louis is big on concepts, and he’s talked about it offensively and defensively. Now the structure part is solidified – and the concept of everyone buying in and doing their job away from the puck.”

That’s in contrast to the first 30 games of the year when they were either in the bottom five or bottom 10 of the league at 5-on-5. So, sure, the 12-game sample isn’t that big. But there are promising steps. They say the best defense is a good offense – and that’s been the case. But the defensive metrics are good, too, and they’re getting full commitment across the board. Alexandre Carrier has been a nice addition to a young blueline that’s starting to find their bearings.

With wins against Colorado, Vegas, Tampa Bay, Florida, and Washington in recent weeks, the Canadiens are proving to be quite the tough nut to crack. They’re no longer an easy out – you have to bring your best to beat the second-youngest team in the league (25.91) besides the Sabres (25.48).

Is it sustainable? We’ll see, but this group was always primed to take a step forward this year. Drafting early every year is nice and all, but there comes a time when you want sustainability. Right now, the Canadiens look like a legit threat every single night.

Who knows? Maybe we’ll see another underdog 2021-like performance this spring.

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Are the Montreal Canadiens actually good?

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